Renaud Duverne Wireless R&D Marketing Manager Agilent Technologies

1. Renaud DuverneWireless R&D Marketing ManagerAgilent Technologies Identifying affordable technology to deliver the mobile broadband vision Insert Presenter Photo Here 100 x 120 pixel in JPEG or BMP format The roads leading to 4G…

2. 2G IS-95Acdma IS-136TDMA PDC GSM 2.5G 3G IS-95Bcdma Increasing efficiency, bandwidth and data rates GPRS iMode HSCSD TD-SCDMALCR-TDD W-CDMATDD W-CDMAFDD E-GPRSEDGE IS-95Ccdma2000 3.5G 1xEV-DORelease B 1xEV-DORelease 0 HSUPAFDD & TDD HSDPAFDD & TDD 1xEV-DORelease A 3.9G 802.16dFixed WiMAXTM WiBRO 802.16eMobileWiMAXTM LTE-Advanced Rel-9/10 EDGE Evolution 4G 802.11g 802.11a 802.11b 802.11h 802.11n HSPA+ 802.16m ? Wireless Evolution 1990 - 2010 LTERel-8FDD & TDD

3. Cooper’s law on wireless capacity growth • Dr. Martin Cooper of Motorola - “father” of the modern mobile phone - has observed: The number of simultaneous voice and data connections has doubled every 2.5 years since wireless began (1900) Cooper’s Law Dr. Martin Cooper in 1982 with the DynaTAC

4. Mobility Mobility High High New Mobile Access Enhanced Enhanced IMT IMT - - 2000 2000 IMT IMT - - 2000 2000 ”IMT-ADVANCED” Enhancement New Nomadic / Local Low Low Area Wireless Access 1 1 10 10 100 100 1000 1000 Peak useful data rate (Mbit/s) Nomadic / Local Area Access Systems Digital Broadcast Systems ITU recommendation ITU-R.1645 Also known as the “van” diagram But what does this look like when probability of coverage is considered? Voice and SMS are near 100% Data becomes less probable with increased mobility and rate

5. Efficiency Number of cells Spectrum What is enabling this apparent exponential growth in wireless communications? • The capacity of a system to deliver services is defined by three main factors: • The available radio spectrum – in MHz • The efficient use of that spectrum – bits / second / hertz • The number of cells – this equates to spectrum reuse

6. 10000 2000 1000 Growth factor 100 25 20 10 Efficiency Spectrum No. of cells 1 Growth to date dominated by increasing cell count • If we apply Coopers law over the last 50 years we are looking at a growth in wireless capacity of perhaps 1,000,000 • Allocating this growth between the axes of capacity looks roughly like this: Growth has historically been dominated by the increase in the number of cells

7. Mobile Subscribers by Geographic Region APAC - Asia Pacific EMEA - Europe Middle East Africa CALA – Central / Latin America NA – North America Source: Infonetics, June 2007 During 2008 50% of the world’s population will have a mobile phone

8. Cellular wireless peak data rates appear to be on track to grow by 100,000 between 1985 and 2015 With such peak data rates the demand for capacity could be huge

9. With today’s cellular densities, average data rates (i.e. capacity) falls behind peak data rates by 10x Pk Data rates x 2800 Efficiency x 40 Spectrum x 7  Capacity x 280 Efficiency, spectrum and capacity are normalized to single-band GSM in 1992 A 10x capacity gap has opened up today! Improvements in average efficiency and spectrum are not keeping up with peak rates The average efficiency, spectrum and capacity plots are normalized

10. Growth in peak / average spectral efficiency by technology Average efficiency Peak efficiency Peak efficiency lies around this line LTE Average efficiency and hence capacity growth of deployed systems lags well behind and will level off due to inter-cell interference 802.16e HSDPA 1xEV-DO W-CDMA IS-95C EDGE LTE target GPRS 1xEV-DO(A) EGPRS2 1/3 GSM Peak efficiency drives up air interface cost &complexity You pay for the peak but experience the average AMPS HSDPA (R7) HSDPA (R5) W-CDMA (R99) EGPRS 4/12 (R99) EGPRS 1/3 (R99)

11. Geometry factor distribution in urban cells Most new high data rate/MIMO performance targets require geometry factors experienced by <10% of the user population 90% of users 10% of users This plot shows the variation in geometry factor across a typical outdoor urban cell Very high spectral efficiency is only seen when the geometry factor is above 15 dB, which is an environment that 90% of the user population will not experience In-building penetration loss will degrade performance further This puts a finite and very low limit on indoor performance when using outdoor transmission systems 100 % Cumulative distribution 0 % -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 Geometry factor in dB

12. Example of interference-limited throughput* M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M 680 Mbps M 20 Mbps 13 Mbps 1.3 Mbps HSDPA macrocell, single Rx + equalizer 15 code 64QAM, 20 Mbps peak 34 randomly distributed users Quiz #2: What is the combined throughput and why? That is an average throughput of 40 kbps (0.26 b/s/Hz) * Source: 3GPP RAN WG4 R4-081344

13. Impact of femtocell deployment on throughput M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M 270 Mbps M 27 Mbps 2.7 Mbps 1.3 Mbps Using the same macrocell add 96 femtocells 24 users migrate to femtocells 10 users remain on the macrocell Quiz #3: What is the combined throughput and why? That is an average throughput of 8 MbpsA 200x improvement! The remaining macrocell users go from 50 kbps to 170 kbps

14. 8 Mbps cellthroughput vs. G factor 4 25+ 20 15 10 5 2 -3 HSDPA cell throughput and geometry factor vs. coverage Rel-7 Type 3 receiver (Equalizer plus receive diversity) Figures derived from typical urban G factor distribution and 3GPP TS 25.101 v7.9.0 Tables 9.8D3, 9.8D4 & 9.8F3 for 3 km/h Any point on the graph represents the entire cell capacity if all users experience that G factor The average cell throughput is around 3 Mbps or 0.6 b/s/Hz >20 dB5% >15 dB10% >10 dB30% >5 dB50% >2 dB70% >-3 dB100%

15. Evidence of existing networks reaching capacity • Elliot Drucker: Hogs and Bandwidth • http://www.wirelessweek.com/Article-Hogs-and-Bandwidth.aspx Netshare Officially Banned from the App Store http://www.theiphoneblog.com/2008/09/14/netshare-officially-banned-from-the-app-store Access to iTunes to be prevented from 3G network? iTunes limited to WiFi connections http://techdirt.com/articles/20080729/0135151823.shtml

16. What is the outlook for capacity growth in the next 10 years? ? The bulk of historical connections has been voice, more recently augmented by SMS To a first approximation Cooper’s law represents growth in wireless capacity But in the future it is all about data which will be limited by supply not demand

17. What is the outlook for capacity growth in the next 10 years? Spectrum Efficiency Number of Cells

18. One digital band in 1990 to twenty five in 2008 Lots of bands but overlapping and not all in the same geography

19. Spectrum upside for any one geography Assume the European model of 340 MHz: 35+35 MHz of GSM @ 900 MHz 75 + 75 MHz of GSM @ 1800 MHz 60 + 60 MHz of UMTS FDD @ 2.1 GHz Add 70 MHz from UHF band Add max 200 MHz from 2.6 GHz band Plus some 3.5GHz? Spectrum upside could be 2x

20. What is the outlook for capacity growth in the next 10 years? Spectrum Efficiency Number of Cells

21. Average efficiency upside Remaining gains in efficiency will come from: Wider channels enabling freq dependent scheduling MIMO & Beamforming Interference cancellation Advanced coding techniques Historical average efficiency has been improving around 3x per decade A very rough figure for the next decade for affordable average efficiency gains is probably going to be similar to the historical trend at around 3x Consistent with LTE goals Efficiency upside could be 3x

22. What is the outlook for capacity growth in the next 10 years? Spectrum Efficiency Number of Cells

23. Cell number upside History shows that the bulk of growth in wireless capacity has come from increasing the number of cells Today we are around one cell per 1000 users This has huge potential to change It is not unreasonable to assume one cell per ten users which could be achieved with deployment of home base stations or femtocells into 30% of households From the operator’s perspective, growing capacity by having the end user pay for the CapEx and OpEx is very attractive! Cell number upside could be 100x

24. Comparing wireless growth potential for the next decade 100 100 Growth potential 10 3 2 Efficiency Spectrum No. of cells 1 Using current efficiency and spectrum projections, the increase of cell numbers remains the dominant means of growing capacity

25. Projecting ahead shows the gap between average and peak rates in loaded cell will grow to 90x • Data rates x 100000 • Efficiency x 87 • Spectrum x 13 • 1100x capacity A 90x gap will exist by 2015 Efficiency, spectrum and capacity are normalized to single-band GSM in 1992 The outlook is that average efficiency and spectrum will fall further behind peak rates The average efficiency, spectrum and capacity plots are normalized

26. And on a linear scale The capacity crunch Macrocell reality lies somewhere below this line

27. Which small cell technology will prevail?What about plain old WiFi? Love it or hate it, WiFi is here to stay WiFi today is by far the biggest provider of home and nomadic wireless data services and so can’t be ignored. By cellular standards it is a crude technology No power control No frequency awareness Limited mobility and handover capability Limited range But WiFi’s simplicity and low cost has led to mass deployment

28. The Wild West of municipal WiFi AP Antenna 7dBi Site to site pathloss ~60 dB WiFi ACLR1 ~30 dB AP TX power 23 dBm Uplink pathloss ~90 dB Client power ~15 dBm Client antenna -5 dBi RX signal ~ -73 dBm RX interference ~ -53 dBm NetworkB Network A 20 dB of interference!Wireless anarchy even on adjacent channels!

29. Who needs adjacent channels anyway? Only WiFi channels 1, 6 and 11 avoid overlap Eleven APs broadcasting on channel 11! How can this ever work!!! 802.11 protocol is cognitive and tolerant of interference & bad planning

30. The limitations of hotspot systemsProviding continuous coverage The only way to get high performance is to ensure high SNR The requires that cells are far enough apart so they don’t interfere But the inevitable consequence is large gaps in coverage No coverage High SNR

31. Ten things WiFi has in common with public toilets • Access is likely to be cheap or increasingly free (beware of 4 star hotels!) • Usually no need to wait unless you’re in a crowd (E.g. 3GPP meetings!) • It’s not always available just where you want it and sometimes you just can’t afford to wait • The quality is very variable and not regulated - You trust your home, the office, the VIP lounge, your hotel room - but Grand Central Station? • Once you find one it may be out of order • They all have different interfaces • You might fear you could catch a virus • Once started, you must finish before moving elsewhere • You are at the mercy of people who want to look at what you are doing • If another user is too close you may be splattered by unwanted emissions But despite their obvious limitations, where would we be without public toilets and WiFi?

32. WiFi – Enabling 3GPP 200 laptops at a time RAN WG1 & WG4 ad hoc Prague August 2004

33. Often the “best” technology doesn’t win Ethernet vs. Token ring 802.11b vs. HiperLAN Windows 3.1 vs. Unix Iridium vs. GSM And now… McDonalds vs. McCaw? “Perfection is the enemy of the good”Gustav FlaubertFrench Novelist 1821 - 1880 Anyone fancy a nybble before dinner? Would you like bytes with that?

34. Can femtocells outperform and replace WiFi? The potential for cellular femtocells to deliver the future growth of wireless is very real but: The industry remains largely focussed on improving efficiency which is driving up cost and complexity Many the engineering challenges of femtocells remain to be solved

35. What is a Femtocell? Femtocellsare low-power wireless access points that operate in licensed spectrum to connect standard mobile devices to a mobile operator’s network using residential DSL or cable broadband connections. Macrocells ~ 35 Km Microcells ~ 1-3Km Picocells ~100m,< 32 users Femtocells ~10m < 8 users Source: http://www.femtoforum.org

36. Femtocell key challenges It’s all about interference mitigation! Co-channel deployment looks very problematic except for rural Adjacent channel seems possible Regulatory aspects – need GPS for authentication A hackers paradise – build your own cellular network… Open vs. closed access Business models Tied to operator Net neutrality – who owns the backhaul? Could blow femtocell competition off the planet – will vary by country Could it hurt my cat? Possible public backlash over radiation concerns?

37. In a mature market, Value > price > cost The value of data is inversely proportional to the rate but the cost of delivery remains relatively constant

38. Macro/micro Cellular Ubiquitous mobile data / voice Mobility and continuous coverage Ability to control QoS Limited capacity and data rates High costs – OK for high value traffic Often outdoors & moving Requires ears & mouth Wireless traffic segmentation Hotspot/Femtocell Opportunistic nomadic data Hotspot coverage Nomadic use Distributed cost (not low cost) Free or charged Sitting down indoors Requires eyes

39. Circuit-switched voice services and SMS are the profit backbone of the cellular industry. First and business class passengers! Technology now allows users to route voice, video and message services over an “all-you-can-eat” or capped data service, paying perhaps € 0.007 per seat in the hold! There are only so many seats on the cellular plane If profitable traffic shifts to low tariffs the cellular airline will go bust. Users associate VoIP with low or no cost – this does not work for cellular Cellular can’t afford users listening to internet radio or TV over low-price data services Data services – the killer app? 2x2 A380 Mbps

40. Comparison of traditional cellular vs. hotspot for data delivery over next decade Improvements in macro network e.g. EDGE Evolution, HSPA+, LTE will continue but low-value high-volume traffic has to move to hotpots

41. So which hotspot technology will win? The answer lies between the extremes of highly regulated femtocellular or the anarchy of Wild West WiFi: FemtocellControl Wi-FiAnarchy ? FemtometerTM Today the needle can only move to the left.But how far will it swing? Cellular control WiFi enabled iPhone

42. Thank you for listening!