Kåre Vassenden, Statistics Norway ECE Work Session on Migration Statistics

1. The quality of Norwegian data for analysis of return and circular migration Kåre Vassenden, Statistics Norway ECE Work Session on Migration Statistics Geneva, 17-19 October 2012

2. Background Increasing demand for higher quality statistics on international migration - return migration - circular migration - intra-EU mobility - measuring emigration using data collected by the receiving country - the EU regulation on migration statistics In short: ’more advanced statistics on international migration’

3. Motivations • Study and elaborate the relevant conceptual framework • Find out more about the quality of • the Norwegian migration statistics • the Nordic migration statistics. The effect of Nordic cooperation • Strike a blow for the variables ’country of last/next residence’ • Express a wish for better dissemination of statistics on Internet • Draw the attention to the superior level: the population balance

4. Outline of the presentation • A general, theoretical discussion • Information on the situation in Norway • Including comparisons with other countries, in particular the Nordic countries and the Netherlands.

5. Indicators of quality • Measuring quality – a real challenge • Both qualitative and quantitative data • Dates of migration (length of stay) • Coverage of country of previous/next residence • (The consistency between migration figures from different countries may indicate something about the quality)

6. Non-Norwegian statistics used • Data available on web sites • national databanks • the Nordic databank • Eurostat’s databank • direct request to some few NSIs • Stored in spreadsheets, further processed in SAS

7. Different perspectives observed on the treatment of international migration in statistics • 1. National perspective • The main interest is the dichotomy between the country of interest and the outside world. ’Country of last/next residence’ is unimportant • ’Citizenship’ goes a long way to describing the migration flows • However, comparison with other countries is interesting and useful • 2. International perspective • ’Country of last/next residence’ is fundamental • Simplified version • Seen from one country. International comparability does not have highest priority • True version • With an birds eye perspective. International comparability is essential

8. One country or more in the model

9. Out-return In-return B A C Different return concepts True return ‘False return’

10. The case of Norway

11. Important frame conditions • A well-functioning PIN • A population registry with administrative authority • Nordic agreement on population registration • Long data history • Broad scope of relevant registers and variables

12. The correction factor Growth_P = Population 31.12. – Population 1.1. Growth_C = Births – Deaths + Immigration – Emigration The correction factor as percentage = Growth_P – Growth-C / (the highest of G-P and G-C) *100

13. Size of correction factor – an indicator?

14. An uneven distribution of length of stay indicates low accuracy Length of stay in Norway (months)

15. Netherlands Sweden Denmark Finland Percentage unknown country of next residence Norway

16. Percentage unknown country of next residence – emigration to Nordic countries excluded Norway – not Nordic Norway – all Sweden – not Nordic Sweden – all

17. Recent developments and discoveries • A separate variable distinguishes between • ‘notified emigration‘ and • ‘emigration by administrative decision’ • Turned out that country of next residence had been imputed in some cases • > The real percentage unknown is even higher

18. Percentage of emigration events registered by administrative decision, by citizenship

19. Summary and conclusions (1) • Norway has good preconditions for producing statistics on return and circular migration • The basic administrative system provides the necessary data and the possibilities to exploit them • However, the administrative definition of migration events does fully comply with the statistical wishes • Strict criteria for being registered as emigrated • Emigration to other Nordic countries is handled by a system that provides for full coverage of country of next residence

20. Summary and conclusions (2) • Emigration events to countries outside the Nordic ones have substantial coverage problems at the variable country of next residence • The biggest problems relates to countries that are natural to include in circular migration studies • Totally dependant on the administrative system for improvements. Possibilities within Statistics Norway are depleted

21. Further work on the problem of unknown country of next residence • Obtain some qualitative information on the issue from other countries • Collect more statistics for comparison purposes • Develop the internal quality statistics • Inform the Population registry about the findings, and follow up with further contact • Learn more about the projects for exchange of national insurance data between EEA countries

22. Thank you! Kåre Vassenden Statistics Norway Division for Population Statistics kva@ssb.no +47 62 88 52 94