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Recent efforts by Mexico to measure migration flows and stocks

Recent efforts by Mexico to measure migration flows and stocks. Alfredo Bustos (INEGI- Mex ) Joint UNECE/ Eurostat Work Session on Migration Statistics Geneva, 17-19 October 2012. Summary. Focus on use of different sources for the study of migration. Flows

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Recent efforts by Mexico to measure migration flows and stocks

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  1. Recent efforts by Mexico to measure migration flows and stocks Alfredo Bustos (INEGI-Mex) Joint UNECE/EurostatWorkSessiononMigrationStatistics Geneva, 17-19 October 2012

  2. Summary • Focus on use of different sources for the study of migration. • Flows • From 2006, quarterly LFS has been used to follow changes in household composition, specially via migration. • Arrivals or departures of dwellers over 3-months are recorded. • Quarterly birth-, death-and migration-rates produced. • Stocks • For emigrants, look at administrative “paper trail” in destination countries. • Example, NCHS information regarding the mother’s place of birth. • Combine with ACS’ birth-rates and age-sex structures for the Mexico-born population residing in the USA to obtain estimate for that population size. • On-going work that could be used in other regions.

  3. Layout • Flows: ENOE, Mexico’s quarterly labour force survey • Stocks: ACS plus Birth Certificate data

  4. Flows: ENOE, Mexico'sQuarterlyLabourForceSurvey

  5. ENOE One of thelongest-runningstatisticalprojects in the country. • Mainpurpose, to produce national and state-levelquarterlyunemploymentrates. • Informationcollectedcontinuouslyoverthree-monthperiods. • Samplesizefixed at 120,060dwellingseveryquarter. • New entries are randomlyselectedwithunequalprobabilitiesfromstratifiedsamplingframe.

  6. Rotation pattern • Eachquarter, 20% of householdsleavesampleaftercompletingfive-interview tour, • replacedby new (semi-)panel withsamesize, • remains in sampleforfiveconsecutive rounds of interviews, onequarterapart. • Hence, 80% quarter-to-quartersampleoverlap. • Useful in determiningquarterlychangepatterns in • householdcomposition, • occupational status of individuals, • etc.

  7. Rotation Pattern Common sample in two successive quarters due to ENOE's Rotation Pattern

  8. InformationCollected

  9. MonitoringHouseholdComposition Interested in learningaboutpeoplewho: • are no longerpart of thehouseholdbecause of • deathor • emigration, or • join as new members of thehouseholdbyreason of • birthor • immigration.

  10. New Panel's First Interview In addition to job data, initial roster of individuals in each household is developed. Recording, among other socio-demographic variables, • place of birth, • age, • sex, • relationship to head of household, • educational characteristics (for human-capital studies), http://www.inegi.org.mx/est/contenidos/proyectos/encuestas/hogares/regulares/enoe/default.aspx?\&\_s=est\&\_c=14731

  11. Subsequent Interviews Informationforimmigrantsincludes • Former place of residence (stateor country), • socio-demographiccharacteristics, • reasonsformigrating: • workorstudy, • marriageordivorce, • healthreasons, • joiningthefamilygroup, • environmental • violence, criminal or social.

  12. Subsequent Interviews Information for emigrants includes • Place of destination (state or country), • reasons for migrating • work or study, • marriage or divorce, • health reasons, • joining the family group, • violence, criminal or social.

  13. Consequences of RotationPattern

  14. Expansion factors Must take into account: • Changes in population size. • Expand to 80% of population size, at best. • Differential non-response.

  15. Consequences for Immigration • Estimates total number of immigrantsreceivedbyhouseholdsoveronequarter. • In otherwords, households are considered "at risk" of receivingoneor more migrants. • Use expansionfactorsforhouseholds • Immigrationshownrelativetopopulationsize.

  16. NumericalResults

  17. Quarterly Net Migration Rates in Mexico, 2006-2012. 2006-II 2006-IV 2007-II 2007-IV 2008-II 2008-IV 2009-II 2009-IV 2010-II 2010-IV 2011-II 2011-IV 2012-II http://www.inegi.org.mx/inegi/contenidos/espanol/prensa/Boletines/muestra3.asp?tema=22&s=inegi&c=279

  18. Year-over-Year Job Growth in Metropolitan Areas, USA, 2001-2011 (Natural Resources, Mining, Construction) Source: http://www.pittsburghtoday.org/view_economy_job_growth_years_change.html, Aug. 3rd, 2011.

  19. Results. • Decliningtrend in thenumber of outmigrantsfrom 2006 • Burst of thehousingbubble in the US? • Stablesituationforimmigration, includesreturnmigrants. • Distinctseasonalpatternexhibitedbybothout- and in-migrantsoverthesameperiod • Vanishestowardtheend. Multiplicativeseasonality?

  20. Age and Sex Structure

  21. Age and Sex Structure of International Out-migrants in Mexico, 2006-2009. • Low frequency of inter-state migration difficults production of reliable estimates for greater geographical disaggregation. • Age and sex characteristics of the migrant population, stable. • When records over the 2006-2009 period are pooled, age-sex structures may be produced. • Recent Mexican emigration is predominantly male and occurs mainly at working ages.

  22. Age and Sex Structure of International Out-migrants in Mexico, 2006-2011.

  23. Stocks: acs plus birthcertificate data

  24. US Census: Stand up and be counted? By Laura Trevelyan BBC News, New York 2010 is census year in America - and there is a lot riding on this drive to count everyone in the country. Some $400bn (£251bn) of federal money is allocated according to the population in each of the 50 states, and so are Congressional seats. “ If you want better services, allow yourself to be counted, I am guaranteeing that nothing bad will happen to you ” Ruben Diaz Jr, Bronx Borough president “ I now how afraid the people are, they are hiding, and they believe the police force is looking for them ” Carlos Soto

  25. Sources • PopulationCensuses • Populationprojections • Expansionfactors • Surveys • Public data • Births • Schoolattendance • Health • Etc.

  26. Total births in USA, 1990-2006 Source: Own from NCHS-CDC data bases, 1990-2006

  27. Births in the USA, 1997-2006 Note: 2005-2006 births to México-born women estimated Source: Own from NCHS-CDC data bases, 1997-2006

  28. Births to Mexico-born women Note: 2005-2006 values were estimated Source: Own from NCHS-CDC data bases, 1990-2006

  29. Mexico-bornfertility in theUnitedStates, avge. 2005-2007 Source • Gregg Robinson, Privatecommunication: USBC, 2005-2007 American CommunitySurvey 3-Year Estimates, American CommunitySurvey (ACS), GeographicArea: UnitedStates, Country of Birth: Mexico • Ownfrom NCHS-CDC data bases, 1990-2006 • 2004 value (*) Birthcertificate data notcorrectedformultiplebirths

  30. Mexico-bornfertility in theUnitedStates, avge. 2005-2007 Source: • Data Ferret, USBC, 2005-2007 American CommunitySurvey 3-Year Estimates, American CommunitySurvey (ACS), GeographicArea: UnitedStates, Country of Birth: Mexico • Ownfrom NCHS-CDC data bases, 1990-2006 • 2004 value (*) Birthcertificate data notcorrectedformultiplebirths

  31. Data deficiencies Necessary assumptions: • Birth data-bases for 2005-2006 did not include the mother’s place of birth. • Birth-rates or sex-age structures of the Mexico-born population did not change much over a short period. I used the assumption about birth-rates. • Estimate the 2004 population, not available for ACS in the Data Ferret on-line tool. • Timing is not equal. • Birth rates from question to women about births in past 12 months (from July 1 of survey year). • NCHS births are for a calendar year (January - December). • Numbers refer to same concept • ACS numbers refer to women while NCHS ones to children. Allow for multiple births. • Some Mexican migrants do not respond to the census and/or the ACS, but still bear children. • Are they similar to the rest in this respect? or is there a bias? • There is life after censuses and surveys.

  32. 1st. Rough PreliminaryResults(DO NOT QUOTE) • Source: • Owncalculationsbasedon NCHS birthcertificate data-bases, 2004 • Data Ferret, ACS, 2005-2007 American CommunitySurvey 3-Year Estimates • Owncalculations, as shown.

  33. ACS Fertility

  34. Source: • Owncalculationsbasedon NCHS birthcertificate data-bases, 2004 • Data Ferret, ACS, 2005-2007 American CommunitySurvey 3-Year Estimates • Owncalculations, as shown.

  35. 2nd. Rough PreliminaryResults(DO NOT QUOTE) • Source: • Own calculations based on NCHS birth certificate data-bases, 2004 • Data Ferret, ACS, 2005-2007 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates • Own calculations, as shown.

  36. Net International MigrationforMexico

  37. Closing • Use of LFS and of administrative records in study of Mexico international migration discussed. • Rotation factor of Mexican LFS useful in determining changes in household composition, specifically by way of migration. • Use of birth data suggested in the study of migration if migration records unavailable (i.e., undocumented migration or integration process as in Europe). • Use of other administrative data worth looking into. • The proposal put forward may be of interest to countries in the region in view of the availability of adequate administrative records.

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