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Warm Up: When is it ok to invade a country?

Warm Up: When is it ok to invade a country?. Friday is the end of the Quarter!. Monday, March 10 th , 2014. Objective:. I will be able to predict what Russia will do next in the Crimean Conflict. Language Objective: I will use a sentence stem to answer a question. Vocabulary.

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Warm Up: When is it ok to invade a country?

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  1. Warm Up: When is it ok to invade a country? Friday is the end of the Quarter! Monday, March 10th, 2014.

  2. Objective: • I will be able to predict what Russia will do next in the Crimean Conflict. Language Objective: • I will use a sentence stem to answer a question.

  3. Vocabulary • Trade Pact – agreement between countries on terms of trade. • European Union - A group of European countries that participates in the world economy as one economic unit • Pawn - used by others for their own purposes. • The West – Europe and countries of European colonial history. • Autonomous region - self-governing region in terms of local issues. • Prime Minister – similar to a president • Breadbasket – area that is very fertile and produces more food than it needs for its people.

  4. Soviet Union 1922 - 1991

  5. Ukraine • Becomes part of the Soviet Union by 1921. • Breaks away in 1991 when the Soviet Union dissolves. • Known as the breadbasket of Europe due to its fertile farmland.

  6. Long Term Issues • The biggest nation separating the EU and Russia. • Often seen as a pawn between Russia and the West. • A geostrategic pipeline runs through the Ukraine. • Both the US and Russia have sought to influence events to their benefit. • Began in the Bush era. • Accelerated with Obama. • Black Sea Fleet stationed in Crimea . • 2010 agreement permitted the fleet to stay until 2042.

  7. Ukrainian Crisis • Started out as a protest over the handling of a trade pact with European Union. • A contentious election in 2010 saw pro-Russia candidate and former Prime Minister Yanukovych win with narrow margins over Prime Minister Tymoshenko. • Yanukovychwon with strong support in the Eastern regions, with most regions in the West favoring Tymoshenko.

  8. Ukrainian Revolution • November 2013 – the President refuses to sign a trade pact with the EU. • Had been promising for a year to sign it. • Would have created closer ties with the EU and generated economic growth. • Asks Russia for a $20 Billion loan. • Russia threatened to charge higher prices for gas is the Ukraine signed the trade deal with the EU. • Pro-EU Ukrainians began protesting, eventually forcing Yanukovych from office.

  9. Crimea • Autonomous region of the Ukraine • 1954- part of Soviet Union (Russia + 14 other countries Russia took over) • 1991 - voted to leave Russia and join with the Ukraine • Russia Black Fleet (Navy) stationed on Crimea. • 2008 – Russia gives out Russian passports to Crimean citizens (makes them citizens of Russia).

  10. Russia Invades Crimea? • February 27th, 2014, unidentified pro-Russian troops seize control. • Russia’s only year-round link to the Mediterranean Sea. • Has controlled a port in Crimea for 230 years. • Russia claims ethnic Russians were being mistreated. • There is no evidence of this. • March 16th, 2014 – Crimea to vote on whether to join Russia or stay with the Ukraine. • Ukrainian Prime Minister declares the invasion an act of war.

  11. Russia/Soviet Union • Georgia, 2008. • Cross-border tensions with Russia exploded into a five-day conflict that saw Russian tanks and troops pour into the breakaway territories of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, as well as Georgian cities. • Russia and Georgia each blamed the other for starting the conflict • Russia still has control of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. • Afghanistan, 1979 • Soviet Union invades; fails to conquer.

  12. Legal Issues • Russia has clearly recognized Ukraine and its present borders. This was confirmed in: • The Alma Ata Declaration of December 1991, which consigned the Soviet Union to history, • The Budapest memorandum of 1994, offering security guarantees to Ukraine in exchange for removing nuclear weapons from its territory • The 1997 agreement on the stationing of the Black Sea fleet in Crimean ports. • International Law says you cannot forcibly rescue foreigners declared nationals. • Russia says it was invited in by the former PM; becomes a non issue once he was forced out.

  13. What Will Russia Do? • Use Force • Could easily defeat the Ukraine (Black Sea Fleet encircles 60% of the Ukraine). • Would be disruptive to industry, agriculture, oil and gas sales in the region for years. • Retreat • 60% of Crimea speaks Russian • Only year-round warm water access to the Mediterranean • Retreat with conditions • Crimea becomes semi-independent • Gets a permanent agreement to keep the port in Crimea. • Advance into Ukraine • Shows the world that they are not to be messed with.

  14. TOD • I predict that Russia will ________________________________.

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