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Air Quality Simulation in Japan Clean Air Program II

Further Challenge in Automobile and Fuel Technologies for Better Air Quality Air Quality Simulation in Japan Clean Air Program II October 28, 2005 Japan Petroleum Energy Center http://www.pecj.or.jp/jcap/ Content Outline of JCAP and Air Quality Model Research

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Air Quality Simulation in Japan Clean Air Program II

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  1. Further Challenge in Automobile and Fuel Technologies for Better Air Quality Air Quality Simulation in Japan Clean Air Program II October 28, 2005 Japan Petroleum Energy Center http://www.pecj.or.jp/jcap/

  2. Content • Outline of JCAP and Air Quality Model Research • JCAP II Air Quality Simulation Model Development Concept • 3.Air Pollution Concentration Simulation Precision • 4.Future Air Quality Prediction Results • 5.Summary

  3. １． Outline of JCAP and Air Quality Model Research

  4. What is JCAP? Japan Clean Air Program • Collaborative study by automobile and oil industriesto find the best combination of automobile and fuel technologies to improve the air quality of Japan and to provide the government with rational technical data for policy making. • Supported by Petroleum Energy Center, a subsidy of METI • METI: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry • JCAP I :1997 – 2001 (Budget: Approx. 5.4 billion yen, Numbers of staffs: over 100 members) • JCAP II: 2002 – 2006 (Budget : Approx. 5.6 billion yen, Numbers of staffs: about 130 members)

  5. 0.08 0.18 ■ ■ Roadside Roadside 0.16 0.07 ■ ■ Urban Background Urban Background 0.14 0.06 100 0.12 0.05 0.10 0.04 0.08 0.03 0.06 50 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.01 0 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Ｙｅａｒ 0 ’00 ’99 ’98 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 Motivation of JCAP -1- NO2 SPM ＳＰＭ　（ｐｐｍ） ＮＯ２　（ｐｐｍ） (Whole Japan Ave.) Ｙｅａｒ ():Air Quality Standard Air Quality: -Not improved in early 1990’s -Attainment Ratio was poor at Urban Area NO2 (0.06ppm) Attainment Ratio ( % ) SPM (0.1mg/m3) Photochem. Oxidant (0.06ppm)

  6. Bus, Special Mini PC Truck PC   Motivation of JCAP -2- Emission/Vehicle Reduction vs. Emission Inventory Increase No. of Vehicles increase Diesel Increase RV, Fuel Cost, etc. • Stringent Emission Regulation introduction • -1989 Reg. Diesel NOx • -1994 Reg. Diesel NOx • -1998 Reg. Diesel NOx and PM • -2003 Reg. (Under discussion) • -2005 Reg. (Under discussion) Year '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 15 EU NOx(g/kWh) 10 EURO3 Japan EURO4 5 USA 2003Reg. 0 2005Reg. 0.6 Japan EU 0.4 PM(g/kWh) 2003Reg. 0.2 USA 2005Reg. 0.0 EURO4 EURO3 Combine fuel and automobile technology for further emission reduction Develop of Air Quality Simulation Model and Evaluate future air quality improvement

  7. Emissions reduction target Technical information helpful for more reasonable environmental measures Target of JCAP study Technical evaluation for automobile emissions reduction (Automobile technology x Fuel technology) Estimate of Air quality improvement Cost evaluation of Air quality improvement

  8. Example of JCAP Results Reflection in Environment and Energy Policies • Great effect of sulfur content in fuel on exhaust emissions. Reflected in fuel standard: 50ppm S content; gasoline/diesel fuel from 2005.10ppm S content; gasoline/diesel from 2008/2007. • Great effect of Reid Vapor Pressure (RVP) of gasoline on evaporative emissions. • Reflected in self-imposed control of gasoline RVP. • Diesel Particulate Filter (DPF) retrofitted to in-use vehicles is not sufficient, under urban driving conditions. • Reflected in preparation of Tokyo Metropolitan Government’s diesel vehicle emission regulations. • These are reflected through: • Experts Committee on Motor Vehicle Exhaust Emission, • Petroleum Products Quality Sub-committee of Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy, • Evaluation Committee of Diesel vehicle Emission Control Technologies.

  9. Tasks of JCAP II 1. Pursuing the future automobile and fuel technologies aimed at realizing Zero Emissions and improving fuel consumption, based on the latest technologies and overall energy efficiency. 2. Developing Air Quality models with high accuracy to predict real world. 3. Study of un-regulated emissions and nanoparticles from the vehicles.

  10. JCAP II Study Subject Outline • (1) Automobile and Fuel Technology Study • Evaluate high technology for gasoline/diesel vehicles aiming at near Zero Emissions and fuel/oil properties • Evaluate emissions and CO2 reduction potential • Examine fine particle measurement method and evaluate high technology through high measurement methods Key Word: Zero Emissions, CO2 reduction, Octane Number of Gasoline, Bio fuel, Nanoparticle, Oil properties (Ash, P,S) (2) Air Quality Model Study • Build Real-world Emission Inventory Simulation Model • Build Integrated Air Quality Model of Urban Air Quality Model and Roadside Air Quality Model • Evaluate Integrated Air Quality Model and Case Study Key Word: Real world, High accurate model, Roadside, Nanoparticle

  11. Role of JCAP II to Regulatory Affairs Contribution to environment and energy policies through Fair Data  Environmental policies Energy policies Forecast for petroleum quality, supply and demand Prospects of Air Quality improvement effects such as automobile emission reduction Direction of future automobile technologies and the required fuel quality Emission inventory estimate in real world in the future Researches on automobile and fuel technologies aimed at realizing Zero emission (compatible with CO2 emission control measures) Researches on Air Quality Modeling with high-grade accuracy and database establishment enabling to evaluate policies

  12. JCAP II results and incorporation into policy-making • Fuel economy improvement due to fuel sulfur content reduction (from 50 to 10ppm) has been verified. • Reported to the Petroleum Products Quality Subcommittee of Advisory Committee for Natural Resources and Energy. ・The report has been incorporated into the Subcommittee report, “Fuelsulfur content should be reduced to 10ppm or less from 2007 for diesel fuel and 2008 for gasoline, respectively.” • Air quality improvement effect due to new emission control technologies has been simulated. • Reported to a hearing of Experts Committee on Motor Vehicle Exhaust Emissions of the Central Environment Council. • The results were used for the 8th report of the Central Environment Council of the Ministry of the Environment as data predicting the air quality improvement effect due to enforcement of stricter emission regulations quantitatively.

  13. Air Quality Improvement in Japan(Tokyo) 0.10 0.10 100 100 0.08 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.04 0.04 80 80 0.02 0.02 0 0 60 60 40 40 20 20 0 0 Average NO2/SPM concentrations decreased, and the attainment of the environmental standards is low on the roadside. Annual Ave. Conc. Urban Background Roadside NO2(ppm) SPM NO2(ppm) SPM（mg/m3） SPM SPM（mg/m3） NO2 NO2 '97 '97 '98 '99 '98 '99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘03 ’04 ’04 Attainment Ratio NO2 NO2 AttainmentRatio(%) AttainmentRatio(%) SPM SPM '97 '98 '99 '97 '98 '99 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘00 ‘01 ‘02 ‘03 ‘03 ’04 ’04

  14. 2 JCAP II Air Quality Simulation Model Development Concept

  15. General Formation of Air Quality Models Keyword Roadside Meteorological Model Nanoparticle 2-300km Airflow Model 1km Regional Scale Model Secondary organic aerosol formation Condensation Roadside Model Coagulation/ Evaporation Nucleation Nanoparticle Model Deposition Model Integration

  16. (1) Air Quality Model Data Flow Meteorological model Emission inventory estimate other than automobiles Secondary Aerosol Model Macro-scale emission inventory Estimate (Regional / Urban Air Quality Model) Macro-scale traffic flow Simulation Multi-scale Air Quality Simulation Model (Regional Air Quality Model) Air pollutant concentrations incl. nanoparticles at roadside ~ in urban area ~ regional area Effect evaluation of Automobile emissions Road linkage Road structure Transport demand (OD, PT data) Emission measurement on chassis-dynamometer High-emitting vehicle actual condition survey (Remote-sensing) Micro-scale emission inventory Estimate (Roadside Air Quality Model) Roadside Air Quality Simulation Model Micro-scale traffic flow simulation

  17. Present state Conc. Data replacement ∂c Sensitivity analysis ∂e Parameter (2) Sensitivity Analysis Method Outline Sensitivity analysis method in URM ->Decoupled Direct Method (DDM) (What is DDM?) Parameterp = e P （Initial condition, boundary condition, emission inventory, wind speed, diffusion coefficient, etc.） Transportation / reaction equation for Analogous with concentration equation Solve in parallel with concentrationc For emission inventory simulation, simulation target place can be appointed.

  18. Observed value Calculated value Initial conc. Boundary conc. Wind speed Diffusion coefficient Deposition rate NOx emissions Sensitivity to NO2(Time-series analysis at Kanda-Central of Tokyo) High sensitivity to wind speed in the morning while calculated values are underestimated High sensitivity to emission inventory while calculated values are small High sensitivity to deposition rate at night NO2 conc. Dec.9 12:00 Dec.9 00:00 Dec.10 12:00 Dec.10 00:00

  19. (3) Key Points in Air Quality Model development - Measures for simulation precision improvement through sensitivity analysis - • Establish Multi-scale model ii)Reproduce complex weather condition at city center iii) Consider trans-boundary air pollution iv) Establish tertiary grid cell emission source data

  20. JCAP I (3)-1 Integration of long range air pollution transportation effect Boundary condition: Apply CMAQ simulation results of grid cells ranging from 10 to 4 km square CMAQ boundary is set based on East Asia area simulation results Initial condition: Start the simulation 8 days before the evaluation target day Dec.8, 1999 Utsunomiya - NO2 URM Utsunomiya - SPM CMAQ G2 CMAQ G1 CMAQ East Asia area Dec.7 00:00 Dec.7 12:00 Dec.10 00:00 Dec.10 12:00 Dec.9 12:00 Dec.8 00:00 Dec.8 12:00 Dec.9 00:00 CMAQ Observed value

  21. (2) (3) (1) (4) (3)-2 Remote-Sensing Device (1) Speed-Acceleration Detector - Comprehend test vehicle driving conditions - Exclude inaccurate analysis results because of exceeding acceleration and deceleration (2) Emissions Detector - CO，CO2，HC*： Measurement using Infrared rays (IR) -NO，PM**： Measurement using Ultraviolet rays (UV) • * Conversion into propane (C3H8) • ** Conversion into PM weight per 100g of fuel (smoke factor) instead of Opacity (3) Automatic License Plate Reader - Test vehicle information such as vehicle type, applicable regulations, GVW, fuel type, etc. is obtained from license plate. Information is used for emission test result analysis. (4) Data Processing Equipment - Speed-Acceleration, emission measured values, imagery of test vehicles are recorded in real time. Number plate information is input separately.

  22. High-emitting vehicle emission inventory estimate method (Gasoline vehicles only) 2800 RSD Emission inventory measurement Limit speed/acceleration range, and set Cut Point for high-emitting vehicles (Ex. NO: 1250ppm, corresponding to level of US I/M test Cut Point * 2) Ratio estimate in number of high-emitting vehicles by model year Set emission factor for high-emitting vehicles (Basis: ’78 reg. meeting vehicle w/o catalyst) High-emitting vehicle emission inventory estimate 1978 reg. meeting vehicle 2400 => 2000 1600 NO [ppm] 1200 800 Cut Point 400 0 -400 => -800 2002 1999 1990 1995 1997 1994 1998 2000 1992 1993 1996 2001 1991 1989 1988 ～ First registration year 16 => 1978 reg. (+ ’98 reg. Idling control) reg. meeting vehicle 14 [%] (Incl.☆，☆☆，☆☆☆) 2000 reg. meeting vehicle 12 10 8 => 6 Ratio of high-emitting vehicles 4 2 0 4 yrs 3 yrs 5 yrs 2 yrs 7 yrs 9 yrs 6 yrs 8 yrs 1 yr 0 yr 12 yrs 11 yrs 10 yrs 13 yrs 14 yrs Vehicle age (First registration year: 2002)

  23. (3)-3 Emission inventory estimate from all emission sources Example of emission inventory distribution (NOx) JCAPⅠ Grid cell size: about 5km JCAP Ⅱ Grid cell size: about 1km Add other emission sources which had been excluded from consideration: Construction, industrial and agricultural machinery, open burning, etc.

  24. 3. Air Pollution ConcentrationSimulation Precision

  25. 200 (mg/m3) 0 SPM Concentration Distribution (Dec. 10, 18:00) JCAP I JCAP II JCAP I Emission inventory data Latest emission inventory data Air pollution monitoring station observation data JCAP I Update of emission inventory Update of model / meteorological condition Consideration of long range air pollution transportation

  26. 64.0 -50.9 29.5 -40.1 36.3 -25.7 45.9 -38.2 38.4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 -60 -50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 51.1 -69.9 41.3 -48.3 30.6 -34.8 39.7 -41.6 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 -80 -60 -40 -20 0 SPM Simulation precision SPM average conc. in target area Normalized Mean Bias Measured value JCAP I JCAP I Upgrade of model / meteorological condition Update of model / meteorological condition Update of emission inventory Update of emission inventory Consideration of Long range air pollution transportation Consideration of Long range air pollution transportation SPM average conc. in target area (mg/m3) Normalized Mean Error Unpaired Peak Accuracy JCAP I JCAP I Update of model / meteorological condition Update of model / meteorological condition Update of Emission inventory Update of emission inventory Consideration of Long range air pollution transportation Consideration of Long range air pollution transportation

  27. 4. Future Air Quality Prediction Results

  28. Automobile Automobile Mobile source Mobile source Large-scale point source Large-scale point source Small-scale point source Small-scale point source Tire wear Road dust Total Emission Inventory Estimate Total emission inventory in the specified area for Automobile NOx/PM Laws in Kanto bloc (t/day) NOx Year 2000 Base case (Spontaneous turnover before 2005 reg. introduction) -22% Introduction of 2005 reg. & High-emitting vehicle elimination -32% Year 2015 Case 1: Emission level reduction to ½ of 2005 reg. -27% Case 2: Emission level equivalent to US 07 reg. -30% SPM Year 2000 Base case (Spontaneous turnover before 2005 reg. introduction) -29% Introduction of 2005 reg. & High-emitting vehicle elimination -32% Year 2015 Case 1: Emission level reduction to ½ of 2005 reg. -29% -30% Case 2: Emission level equivalent to US 07 reg.

  29. 0 70 (mg/m3) Year 2000 (with HE / ME emission factor) Year 2015 (with HE / ME emission factor) Year 2015 (w/o HE. with ME emission factor) NOx: -50%, PM: -50% NOx: -87%, PM: -52% SPM concentrations Daily average SPM conc. distribution Year 2000 (with HE / ME emission factor) Year 2015 (with HE / ME emission factor) Year 2015 (w/o HE, with ME emission factor) NOx: -50% PM: -50% NOx: -87% PM: -52% Highest conc. in the specified area for NOx/PM Laws Average conc. in the specified area for NOx/PM Laws Average SPM conc. (mg/m3) Highest SPM conc. (mg/m3) HE: High-emitting vehicle ME: Ministry of the Environment

  30. 5.Summary JCAP II Air Quality Model Study are summarized as follows: • Sensitivity Analysis method was introduced for prediction accuracy improvement • Multi-scale model, Emission data accuracy and precise meteorological data in central metropolis. are key points for simulation accuracy improvement • Air quality simulation is an effective way for policy making to improve future air quality • JCAP Model will be opened to the public widely when the JCAP II finished

  31. End of Presentation

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