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Indian Economy GDP Growth - Estimates (2003 - 2004). 1Q 2004 (A)Estimated '03-04Service Sector 7.6 % 7.3 % Industrial Sector 5.8 % 5.0 % Construction Sector 5.7 % 6.7 % Agriculture Sector 1.7 % 10.7 % . CMIE - Estimates . Economy expected to grow by about 7.4% .
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1. Presentation ByAmbuja Cement
2. Indian EconomyGDP Growth - Estimates (2003 - 2004) 1Q 2004 (A) Estimated ’03-04
Service Sector 7.6 % 7.3 %
Industrial Sector 5.8 % 5.0 %
Construction Sector 5.7 % 6.7 %
Agriculture Sector 1.7 % 10.7 %
3. Cement in India Why ?
Indian economy will keep growing in band of - 5 - 7% annually
To achieve larger GDP growth rate Country will need more Roads, Ports, Irrigational facilities & other Infrastructure
Housing will continue to be a major construction area
Cement as a product or technology does not suffer from obsolescence
There is no “Substitute” for Cement
4. Roads - New Dimension Major Investments in Road Development
Special Cess of Rs. 1.50 per liter on petrol and diesel for Road Development
Total outlay over next 2/3 years - Rs. 600 Billion
5. Road Development Golden Quadrilateral- 5846 Sq.. Km
(Already Completed 1408 km)(Expected completion - June 2005)
North-South & East-West Corridors - 7300 Sq.. Km
( Already Completed 980 km) (Expected completion - 2007)
48 New Road project - 10000 Km.
(Expected completion - 2006)
Government commits to 25% Concrete Roads
Expected additional consumption -3/4 mn tonnes per annum
6. Housing Construction Huge potential:
Unfulfilled demand - 33 mn units
Increasing disposable income
Younger generation aspiring to have “Own House”
Low real estate prices
Easy availability of Housing Finance - Growing over 30%
Interest Rates have come down by 700 bps in last 3 years
Monthly instalment on mortgage is now equivalent to rentals
7.
Cement Supply
Other side of the equation
8. Cement Supply - The Dynamics Cement Production 2003 111 mn tonnes
Maximum Clinker Production Capability
(Including Sanghi) 103 mn tonnes
Current Clinker to Cement
Conversion Ratio (the best in
last 5 years) 1.21times
Maximum Cement Production Capability 127 mn tonnes
at Conversion Ratio - 1.23
9. Cement Supply - A Reality Check No new cement capacity under construction
Lenders unwilling to fund new cement plants
Maximum Cement production capability at a conversion ratio of 1.23 - 127 mn tonnes
Existing players going through Consolidation
10. Indian Cement IndustryNext 3 Years Financial Clinker Cement Cement Demand
Year Capacity Conversion Production
Ratio at Peak 8%
( Maximum Level)
2003(A) 103 - 111 111
2004(E) 103 1.21 125 117
2005(E)* 105 1.22 128 126
2006(E)* 107 1.23 132 136
11. Cement Outlook Cement demand growth should exceed 8% if the GDP is growing at over 6 %
FY 2003-04 would be the First year in last decade to not to have a single new plant commissioning
Next 2 years also there is no new capacity expected
Cement Demand to expected exceed Supply after a gap of several years
All these point to good demand & better Cement Prices
13. Growth With A Sound Business Model
14. Our Business Model Own Infrastructure -Logistics Management
Strong brand & efficient distribution
Presence in prime markets
Lowest cost cement producer
15. Own Infrastructure 7 Owned Cement Ships for transporting Cement by Sea
Large port in Gujarat to handle export of Cement ( 2 mn tonnes this year) & Import of Coal / Oil
3 Cement receiving terminals
190 MW of Captive Power Plants at various Cement Plants to give reliable and cheap power
16. Strong Brand India - A bagged market
Individual home builder - key driver of demand
17. Lowest Cost Producer FY 2003 FY 2002 Increase / (Decrease) (%)
Power 187 179 4
Fuel 227 254 (11)
Raw material 136 133 2
Consumables 47 48 (2)
Direct cost 597 614 (3)
18. Gujarat Ambuja Cement - Shareholding GAC ( 12 mn )
40% ACIL 60%
Pvt. Equity Investors
ACC ACEL
14.4% 94%
( 17 mn ) ( 2 mn )
19. Convertible Bonds Brief terms:
Date of Issuance January 2001
Coupon 1%p.a.
Maturity January 2006
Conversion Price Rs. 222
Conversion Into GDRs/ Shares
Amount US$ 100 million
Conversion Option of the
Bondholder Any time till maturity
Yield to maturity at
redemption 4.6%
Call Option of company From January 2004 till Maturity
20. Gujarat Ambuja Cements Limited(Effect of Conversion) Before After
Sources of Funds
Shareholders’ Funds 16166 20680
Deferred Tax 3053 3053
Convertible Bonds 4614 --
Debt 12436 12436
Total 36269 36269
Application of Funds
Gross Fixed Assets 30239 30239
Less: Depreciation 10120 10120
Net Fixed Assets 20119 20119
Investments in ACIL 8572 8572
Other Investments 2445 2445
Net Current Assets 5133 5133
Total 36269 36269
21. %
Tenor
Long Term 79
Short Term 21
Total 100
Mix
Rupee Debt 56
Foreign Currency Debt 44
Total 100 Debt Profile (As of 30.9.2003)
22. Gujarat Ambuja Cement LimitedValuation EV/Ton US$ 90
EV/EBIDTA 9 times
Cash Earning per Shares (CEPS) Rs. 27
Earning Per Shares (EPS) Rs. 14
Price to Cash Earning 10 times
Debt/ Equity -( on Conversion) 0.60
Debt/ EBIDTA - (on Conversion) 2.4 times
23. THANK YOU