The Physics of Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and the Iraq confrontation

1. The Physics of Terrorism, Counter-terrorism, and the Iraq confrontation LBL Institute for Nuclear Astrophysics November 15, 2002 Richard A. Muller email: ramuller@lbl.gov http://muller.lbl.gov

2. Jason Consultant 1972-2002 DoD, DoE, FBI, CIA, NSA, Army, Air Force, Navy 3-4 weeks during summers, 2-4 weeks rest of year reports on technical aspects of counter-terrorism (last 15 yr) tracking terrorists, finding hostages, remote x-ray, radiological weapons, nuclear power security, … summer of 2001: UBL!! Technical aspects of Special Operations Forces (PI) Technical aspects of Navy Seals (PI) Advisory team: bugging of U.S. Embassy Building in Moscow DoD special report: Did South Africa test a nuclear weapon? US National Academy: Technical aspects of arms control (with Soviet Academy, including Sakharov!) Some of my experience on US security:

3. September 112001 September 11, 2001 - a date which will live in infamy - the United States of America was suddenly and deliberately attacked by an anonymous terrorist force that issued no demands. They have awakened a sleeping giant and have instilled in him a terrible resolve

5. What explosives did they use? How did they smuggle them on board?

6. My only complicated chart for the evening

7. Until they took over control of the planes, the hijackers had done nothing illegal. Box cutters were allowed. There was NO failure of airport security. Guns weren’t necessary: pilots had instructions to cooperate. (This policy had saved lives and airplanes in prior hijackings!) September 11, 2001: the last hijacking of a plane in the US. (I made this prediction on 9-11-01.)

10. U.S. use of fuel-air weapon in Afghanistan Blu-82 Daisy-cutter 15,000 lb gasoline = 7.5 tons originally developed to create helicopter landing area in Viet Nam jungle equivalent to 112 tons of TNT = 1% of Hiroshima bomb

15. understanding the terrorist mind What did Osama bin Laden want? What were his goals? What was his expected scenario?

16. bin Laden’s scenario(2001) • al Qaeda successful attack on US (WTC, Pentagon, White House)  • Osama bin Laden: credit for another miracle -- first Russia, now US!  • US attacks Afghanistan  • Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Iran enter war against US  • US is bogged down -- US bodies pile up  • hatred of US spreads throughout Muslim and Arab worlds  • US withdraws (after about 1 year)  • Public says, “Never again fight in Mid-East. No blood for oil. ”  • Osama takes over Saudi Arabia as new king 

17. It’s tough to be a terrorist… • Smart plan / low quality of suicide volunteers • Mohammed Atta: threatened the life of USDA official • Richard Reid: couldn’t ignite his own shoe • Jose Padilla: former Chicago street thug • Zacarias Moussaoui: flunked quizzes, didn’t want to learn landing crème de la crème? No -- l’écume de l’écume • destroyed infrastructure • Virtually no sanctuaries • High secrecy is now a weakness. Is it safe? Whom do you call? • Charismatic leader has disappeared. (Almost certainly dead.)

18. What could terrorists still do? • small airplane attack on stadium • simultaneous explosions in checked baggage • attacks in other countries (Indonesia) • one person uncoordinated attacks • shoe bomber • sniper? anthrax?

19. Onion: Passenger ban

20. Why not just install explosive detectors at every airport?

21. limitations of explosive detection • interior detection • currently based on high nitrogen in most explosives • high false alarm rate (one in twenty) from leather • search luggage, or destroy it? • not usable now. In future: electric quadrupole resonance • high resolution x-ray • look for wiring pattern • check computers carefully • currently in use on selected flights • sniffers • detects trace material on the outside of the luggage or on person

22. Explosives sniffers: ion mobility spectrometers But … there is no adequate way to detect explosives!

23. Useless measures Useful measures • confiscate nail files, scissors, knives at airport • air marshals on flights • arm pilots • federalization of airport security workers • keep first-class curtains open in airplanes • associate passenger with luggage • check shoes • restrict passengers in terminal • ethnic/religious etc. profiling • international police work • infiltrate terrorist groups

24. Now: Iraq & al Qaedasimultaneously

25. easy prediction: Saddam will NOT allow inspections.

27. Full-scale replica of Nagasaki bomb

28. This was built! All it required (in 1991) was U-235.

30. Calutrons at Tarmiya Iraqi watch: At the time of the Gulf war, eight 1200mm units were in limited operation at Tarmiya, and preparations had begun for a second group of seventeen 1200mm separators. According to Iraq's declarations to U.N. inspectors, it managed to produce 640 grams of enriched uranium with an average enrichment of 7.2% at Tuwaitha and some 685 grams at an average enrichment of 3% at Al Tarmiya.

31. former Iraqi Calutron (UN photo)

32. CalutronsIAEA Hans Blix report on Iraq inspections

33. Diamonds and U-235 What people pay for gem quality diamonds: $5000 per carat = $ 12,000,000 per lb What Saddam paid to obtain U-235 for his bomb: $144,000,000 per lb For the right customer, U-235 is worth 12 X the value of gem quality diamonds

34. Is U-235 available? (Atom bomb requires about 20 lb) Kazakhstan 1995 ship remaining U-235 to Russia Qualify for benefits of 1968 Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty 1996: Oops … they find another 450 lb Turkey 2001 Istanbul police seize 2 lb U-235 from smugglers Asking price: $750,000 Why so cheap? What fraction has been intercepted?

35. What could Saddam do with one bomb? • put in shipping container and send to US • drive it in truck to Washington DC • explode it • announce that he was responsible • threaten to attack another US city unless we withdraw from Mid-East

36. US invasionof Iraq (50%)of Baghdad (25%)

37. Key technologiesof the coming war “We own the night!” (motto of the U.S. Special Operations Forces) • RPV -- remotely-piloted vehicles (also known as “UAV” -- unmanned air vehicles) • IR -- infrared vision and night warfare • SAR -- “synthetic aperture” radar imaging

38. Pioneer unmanned air vehicle (UAV) When the Pioneer came over Faylaka Island, near Kuwait City, the defenders heard the obnoxious sound emitted by the two cycle engine, because the air vehicle was intentionally being flown low to let the Iraqis know that they were targeted. Recognizing that with the "vulture" overhead, there would soon be more of those 2000 pound naval gunfire rounds landing on their positions with the same accuracy, the Iraqis made the right choice and, using handkerchiefs, undershirts, and bed sheets, they signaled their desire to surrender.The remote pilot called his commanding officer and asked, “Sir, they want to surrender. What should I do with them?”

41. Predator Primary Function: Airborne surveillance reconnaissance and target acquisition Contractor: General Atomics Aeronautical Systems Incorporated Power Plant: Rotax 914 four cylinder engine producing 101 horsepower Length: 27 feet (8.22 meters) Height: 6.9 feet (2.1 meters) Weight: 1,130 pounds ( 512 kilograms) empty, maximum takeoff weight 2,250 pounds (1,020 kilograms) Wingspan: 48.7 feet (14.8 meters) Speed: Cruise speed around 84 mph (70 knots), up to 135 mph Range: up to 400 nautical miles (454 miles) Ceiling: up to 25,000 feet (7,620 meters) Fuel Capacity: 665 pounds (100 gallons) Payload: 450 pounds (204 kilograms) System Cost: $40 million (1997 dollars) Inventory: Active force, 48; ANG, 0; Reserve, 0

43. Thursday, February 7, 2002 CIA missile said to kill suspected al Qaeda leader WASHINGTON - A missile fired by remote control from a pilotless CIA aircraft has hit what was believed to be a group of senior al Qaeda members in southeastern Afghanistan, killing at least one of them, U.S. officials said on Wednesday. "It was a CIA Predator missile that was fired upon what was thought to be a senior al Qaeda official," said the official, who asked not to be identified. He said the attack took place on Monday night. "At least one was killed and possibly others. It's not clear who the individual was," the official said, adding that bad weather in the region had prevented a mission to identify bodies. The al Qaeda leader who was killed in the attack was taller than the handful of others surrounding him, leading to some speculation about whether the United States may have hit its most wanted man in the war on terrorism -- Osama bin Laden. Bin Laden, whose height is estimated on the FBI's most wanted terrorist list to be 6 feet 4 inches to 6 feet 6 inches (193 cm to 198 cm), is blamed by the United States for the Sept. 11 attacks on America that killed about 3,000 people. But another U.S. official said several al Qaeda leaders were tall, including Ayman al-Zawahri, bin Laden's top lieutenant. U.S. officials believe it was an al Qaeda leader because of the manner in which the others around him were paying homage. "You can tell from overhead that one guy's the center of attention," the official said. "The central figure had a close encounter of the worst kind with a Hellfire missile," he said.

44. November 4, 2002 Terrorist killed in Yemen

45. Washington Nov 4, 3:07 PM (AP): US forces killed a top associate of Osama bin Laden in Yemen in a missile strike … a U.S. official said Monday. Qued Salim Siman al Harethi was one of several al Qaida members traveling by car in northwest Yemen when a Hellfire missile struck it Sunday, killing him and five others. … U.S. counter-terrorism officials have said that al Harethi, also known as Abu Ali, was al Qaida’s chief operative in Yemen … [He] is a suspect in the bombing of the destroyer USS Cole in Aden, Yemen, on Oct. 12, 2000.

46. Infrared vision Special Operations: “We own the night!”