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Status of Climate Change/Variability Studies in RA V Countries

Status of Climate Change/Variability Studies in RA V Countries. Lourdes V. Tibig Philippines. Tools:. Newer versions of GCMs, RGCMs. Integrated impact assessment models. Old version of GCMs (coarse resolutions). Analogue studies. Simple case studies. Community-based approach for V & A.

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Status of Climate Change/Variability Studies in RA V Countries

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  1. Status of Climate Change/Variability Studies in RA V Countries Lourdes V. Tibig Philippines

  2. Tools: • Newer versions of GCMs, RGCMs • Integrated impact assessment models • Old version of GCMs (coarse resolutions) • Analogue studies • Simple case studies • Community-based approach for V & A

  3. STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE/VARIABILITY STUDIES IN RA V COUNTRIES

  4. STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE/VARIABILITY STUDIES IN RA V COUNTRIES

  5. STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE/VARIABILITY STUDIES IN RA V COUNTRIES

  6. STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE/VARIABILITY STUDIES IN RA V COUNTRIES

  7. STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE/VARIABILITY STUDIES IN RA V COUNTRIES

  8. STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE/VARIABILITY STUDIES IN RA V COUNTRIES

  9. Limitations • SRES scenarios have not been applied yet in any detailed studies of impacts in the region (IPCC, 2001) • Impacts studies have not taken account of specific socio-economic scenarios of the future.

  10. Limitations • Low to medium confidence in the projected changes in Australia, medium confidence in the expected increase of such changes like the north-south temperature gradient in mid-southern latitudes, strengthening of the westerlies and associated west-to-east gradient of rainfall across Tasmania and New Zealand • For impacts, there is medium confidence in the predicted vulnerability of agricultural activities to regional reductions in rainfall in southwest and in inland Australia and eastern New Zealand Source: IPCC TAR

  11. Limitations • Very high confidence in the assessment that Australia has significant vulnerability to changes in temperature and rainfall projected for the next 50 to 100 years

  12. Main areas of vulnerability and adaptability to climate change impacts in Australia and New Zealand. Note: Degree of confidence that tabulated impacts will occur is indicated by a letter in the Impact column (VH = very high, H = high, M = medium, L = low, VL = very low).

  13. Main areas of vulnerability and adaptability to climate change impacts in Australia and New Zealand. Note: Degree of confidence that tabulated impacts will occur is indicated by a letter in the Impact column (VH = very high, H = high, M = medium, L = low, VL = very low).

  14. Southeast Asian countries(Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines)

  15. Findings/limitations • On the national level: • The GCMs used in the 1990s had coarse resolutions. Climate change scenarios generated were varied; so that at best, impact assessments were more of a sensitivity analysis (Philippines) • Results of national studies on climate variability and their impacts have greater use in terms of advocating for policy changes. • There is a need for capacity building (e.g. training on and access to RCMs, downscaling techniques, etc.) • Additionally, one issue that is most important is dealing with uncertainties and how to communicate these uncertainties to policy makers.

  16. Regionally, • Characteristics of the assessment require • climate scenarios with high spatial (e.g., site) • and temporal (e.g. daily) resolution; • The most readily available data that can be used to develop climate scenarios are monthly outputs from different GCMs which typically have a spatial resolution of several hundred kilometers; • Downscaling of some kind is required to address the gap in temporal and spatial scales; Source: 2nd AIACC Workshop, Manila, 2004

  17. Regionally, • Statistical, dynamic downscaling and simple interpolation techniques are being used to address the issue of spatial scale; • To address the gap in temporal resolution, monthly GCM outputs were used to either drive a climate/weather generator to generate daily climate scenarios; and • Most studies have made adjustments/ simplifications due to data unavailability/ resources constraints. Source: 2nd AIACC Workshop, Manila, 2004

  18. Important Findings • Climate change will impose significant stresses on available natural resources throughout Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands countries and even Australia and New Zealand; • Future trends of extreme events could continue to be disastrous and even catastrophic unless preparedness is developed

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