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Portland’s EV Future

Portland’s EV Future. A Look at the Business, Technological, and Policy Potential for Electric Vehicle Adoption. Matthew Hayes Danielle Côté-Schiff Kolp, MESM Alex Lopez John Prohodsky Jeremiah Thompson. The “Green Wheels” Team:. Road Map. What is an EV?

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Portland’s EV Future

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  1. Portland’s EV Future A Look at the Business, Technological, and Policy Potential for Electric Vehicle Adoption Matthew Hayes Danielle Côté-Schiff Kolp, MESM Alex Lopez John Prohodsky Jeremiah Thompson The “Green Wheels” Team:

  2. Road Map • What is an EV? • How will they be used in Portland? • Impact on Portland Utilities (PGE case study) • Business Analysis • Technology Analysis • Policy Analysis • Major Challenges and Opportunities

  3. What is an EV? An Electric Vehicle (EV) is an automobile that is solely propelled by an electric motor as opposed to a gasoline powered combustion engine. • This project focuses on vehicles charging directly from the electrical grid. • Other terms: PEV, PHEV, BEV

  4. EVs Are Coming To Portland • Portland is one of 11 cities in the EV Project • High demand for “Greener” cars in Portland • Nissan has chosen Portland as a test market for it’s Leaf • Highest per capita ownership of Priuses in the United States • Growing concern over Global Warming and Climate Change

  5. Portland Forecast

  6. Usage Scenarios • 25% battery depletion every day for commuting, using at home, night charging (based on the 19 average miles traveled by Portland residents). • 100% battery depletion every day, using at home, night charging, no interim charging. • 25% battery depletion each day, but has access to interim charging at work, so only 12.5% charge is needed at home (likely usage in the future with more charging infrastructure). • Long distance driving such that depleted batteries need interim charging, such as on highway corridors.

  7. 0-5 and 5-15 Year Horizons 0-5 Years • At home charging • Starting to build charging infrastructure • Time of Use pricing • Formation of standards • 5-15 Years • Vehicle to Grid (V2G) • Demand Response • Charging infrastructure more mature • Longer range vehicles

  8. Night time charging

  9. Utility Impact • In the 3,640MWh trough, 151,700 cars could be fully charged. • Portland average driving (19mi) 606,700 cars could be charged. • Average summer peak demand at 7pm • Assuming 10% above average peak, 83,300 cars could be charged at once using 220V charger • This hits the “target” scenario around 2018, slow at 2021, and fast after 2016.

  10. Portland Forecast

  11. Business Opportunities • Car mechanics • Charging station technicians/installers • Billing infrastructure • Parking garages/businesses with charging stations • Applications (i.e. smart phone interfaces)

  12. Economic BC Analysis • Benefits • Decrease urban pollution (CO2, NOx, SOx, CO, ozone) • Lower/stabilize daily travel costs • Improve Portland’s green image • Help meet Govnr’s carbon reduction goals • Informed charging (flatten load) • Green/skilled job creation • Wind firming • Increased electricity sales leads to more social services dollars • Less foreign oil consumption (national benefit) Costs • Upfront vehicle cost • Charging infrastructure • Cost of poor charging behavior (grid stress) • Incentive costs • Lost jobs in gas sector (minor)

  13. Social BC Analysis • Costs • Upfront vehicle cost • Charging infrastructure • Inequality • Cost burden/incentives • Garage orphans • Benefits • Lower/stabilize daily travel costs • Lower health care costs • From reduction of urban ground pollution • Decrease noise pollution • Reduce oil drilling (Gulf disaster)

  14. EnvironmentalBC Analysis • Costs • Battery material mining and manufacturing • Battery disposal • Carbon and toxics from Boardman (until shut down) • Benefits • Levelize electricity generation • Wind firming • Shifting pollution from gasoline to electricity • Cutting CO2 emission more than half • Localization of pollutants (ozone, NOx, SOx, PM10, CO) • Human/ecological health • Water quality • Reduce material waste (tune ups)

  15. Business Summary • Portland is in a unique position to implement roll-out of EVs • High hydro and new wind generation • Using smart grid and timed charging can benefit local utilities • Political and social acceptance • New business potential • Environmental benefits large

  16. EV Technology • Lithium-ion batteries are the EV’s enabling technology • A charging infrastructure is needed for EV acceptance • Smart Grid will allow electric utilities to meet EV demand

  17. The Future of EVs

  18. Lithium-Ion Batteries • Expensive • Highest charge-to-volume and charge-to-weight ratio • High number of charge-discharge cycles • Slow decline in residual capacity

  19. EV Battery Charging • Nissan Leaf battery capacity – 24 kWh • 20-22 hours to charge using 120v at 12 A • 5-6 hours to charge on using 240v at 24 A • 30 min. charge using 480v at 125 A • EVs have a built-in battery charger

  20. EV Charging Station • Charging stations • Safety considerations • Connector • Automatic disconnect • Communicates with EV and electric utility

  21. EV Charging Connections

  22. Smart Grid • What is the “Smart Grid”? • Intelligent, two-way communication between power generators, suppliers, and end-users. • Reduces costs for customers and utilities • Enables innovation

  23. Smart Grid

  24. Smart Grid Opportunities • Time of Use / Dynamic Pricing • Reflect “real” price of energy generation • Price signals shape charging behavior • Shift charging to off-peak hours to minimize EV load stress • Usage metering will eventually be incorporated into appliances, heating/cooling, and EVs

  25. Smart Grid Opportunities • Demand response • Utility controls demand by • Disconnecting load • Reducing demand • Could applied universally or selectively

  26. Possible Future SG Opportunities • EVs show great potential to participate in energy and ancillary services markets • Peaking • Spinning reserves • Regulation/ voltage control • Reactive Power

  27. Possible Future SG Opportunities • Outsourcing of utility administrative operations • Aggregate of EV resources into large resource blocks • Settle accounts more easily • Enable smart charging and V2G management • Aggregate EV charge/discharge capacity for participation in energy services markets

  28. Policy Analysis • Tax Credits target Higher Income Households • Yields greatest initial Impact • But can limit future options for discouraging conventional gas vehicles $55,550 Kweon, Y., & Kockelman, K. (2004). Nonparametric Regression Estimation of Household VMT.

  29. Policy Analysis 2 • Need Pragmatic Shift in perception of Vehicles • A 400 Mile range is not required for a commuting vehicle • Demonstrations, Clinics and Public Service Announcements needed to Educate Public • Charging habits must not be left entirely to individual discretion • Default times

  30. Challenges and Opportunities 1. Adverse Load Impact • Demand Response • Timers • TOU or Dynamic Pricing • Education

  31. Challenges and Opportunities 2. Smart Grid Technology Installation and Acceptance Installation Acceptance • Home Charger • Separate Meter • Internet or Phone Connection • Incentives • Education • Marketing

  32. Challenges and Opportunities 3. Policy Vision • Uniform regulatory environment • Stimulate utility investment • Utility investment assurance • Revolving 10 year planning horizon

  33. Thank You!

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