Kurt Petersen MaRCUs abrahamsson

1. A STUDY OF THE PERFORMANCE OF RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTS BY SWEDISH PUBLIC AGENCIES Kurt PetersenMaRCUsabrahamsson

2. Risk and vulnerabilityanalysis in the Swedish crisis management system • Requirement for (almost) all public agencies, Act 2002 • Purpose • Provide basis for decisions concerning risk and vulnerability reduction • Scope • Identification of hazards, estimation of likelihood and consequences • Capability to respond to hazardous events/crises • Should constitute a ”system” • Vertical and horizontal integration

3. Purpose and motivation • New detailed requirements have been issued in 2010 – increase comparability and interoperability • The following steps should be included in the RVAs: • Identification of vital societal functions • Analysis of critical dependencies, and • Analysis of capability to respond to emergencies • The requirements stipulate ”what” but notexactly ”how”, open to local decisions • Explorative purpose: • What methods, approaches and perspectives have been used and what challenges have been encountered?

4. Purpose and motivation Underlying motivation If wewanttoimprove the RVA-system weneedto understand (and be sensitive to) the currentpractises, challanges, etc. • According to the new requirements the following steps should be included in the RVAs: • Identification of vital societal functions • Analysis of critical dependencies, and • Analysis of capability to respond to emergencies • The requirements stipulate ”what” but not ”how” • Purpose/research questions: • Whatmethods, approaches and perspectiveshavebeenused for the three steps (if at all) and howhaveconceptsbeen interpreted? • Whatchallangeshave the agenciesencountered and what support havetheyreceived and arethey in needof?

5. Method • Semi-structured interviews • Sample of 25 public agencies (municipalities, county administration boards, national authorities) • Choice wasbased on acheivinggood representation in terms ofsize, location and function • 5 interviewerswith a common interview guide • Persons thatwere central for the agency’s RVA-workwereinterviewed • Documentationof RVA used in somecasesto supplement the interviews

6. Results and discussion: Themes • Concepts and definitions • The RVA process • Approaches for identifying the vital societal functions • Approaches for identifying critical dependencies • Approaches to assess capabilities • Participation • Support, guidance and feedback

7. Results and discussion • Twoperspectives on definitions: • Areunnecessary or canevencomplicate the analysis • Is keyto proper communication • Someof the conceptsdifficultto interpret – especiallycapability • Useof the conceptsneedto be consistentaccros the RVAs • Concepts and definitions • The RVA process • Approaches for identifying vital societal functions • Approaches for identifying critical dependencies • Approaches to assess capabilities • Participation • Support, guidance and feedback

8. Results and discussion • Concepts and definitions • The RVA process • Approaches for identifying the vital societal functions • Approaches for identifying critical dependencies • Approaches to assess capabilities • Participation • Support, guidance and feedback • Usedapproaches: • Scenario-specific (powershortage, pandemics) • Scenario-independent • Combination ofabove • …maygivesomewhat different results • Manyseemedto not haveunderstood the purposeofthis step

9. Results and discussion • Concepts and definitions • The RVA process • Approaches for identifying vital societal functions • Approaches for identifying critical dependencies • Approaches to assess capabilities • Participation • Support, guidance and feedback • Approaches/arguments: • Not explicitlyaddressedbutcaptured in the scenario discussions • Done for singleunitsbut not for the ”whole” • Taliored methodsareneeded and used • Closelyrelatedto vital societalfunctions and should be treatedconjointly

10. Results and discussion • Concepts and definitions • The RVA process • Approaches for identifying vital societal functions • Approaches for identifying critical dependencies • Approaches to assess capabilities • Participation • Support, guidance and feedback • Workshops with internal representatives vs. self-evaluations • Large interactions vs. manyinvolved • The organization’scapability vs. the capability in the geographic area • National capability given non-specificunderlyingcapabilities

11. Overall conclusions and reflections • Wide varietyofapproachesand views • Keyconceptsseemto be useddifferently • The different steps of the RVA often fragmented intostand-aloneparts • Guidanceofhowtointegrateareneeded • Need for methoddevelopment – especiallyconcerningcapabilityassessment • Need for a system ensuring integration throughoutthemes, RVA, capability, societalfunctionsetc • County administration boards arekeyto get the RVA-system towork

12. Future/on-going work • Detailedstudies ofall RVA reports in twocounties – effectof the new legislation • Comparable? • Interoperable? • Survey with all municipalities in Sweden (self-evaluation) – benefits of RVA? • The findingsareintended for influencingfutureregulation and methoddevelopment

13. Results and discussion • Concepts and definitions • The RVA process • Approaches for identifying vital societal functions • Approaches for identifying critical dependencies • Approaches to assess capabilities • Participation • Support, guidance and feedback • RVAsoften fragmented intostand-alone parts • Contribution by external actors • Participation is still ratherlimited • Limitedbackground and training