1 / 5

Dimension of D&A

Dimension of D&A. Purely scientific Stakeholder utility Attribution – the competitors Falsification. Dimension of D&A. Purely scientific Statistical rigor (D) and plausibility (A). D depends on assumptions about “internal variability” A depends on model-based concepts.

ivi
Download Presentation

Dimension of D&A

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Dimension of D&A • Purely scientific • Stakeholder utility • Attribution – the competitors • Falsification

  2. Dimension of D&A • Purely scientific • Statistical rigor (D) and plausibility (A). • D depends on assumptions about “internal variability” • A depends on model-based concepts. • Thus, remaining doubts exist beyond the specified.

  3. Dimension of D&A • Stakeholder utility • Evidence that anthropogenic warming is related to human drivers – serving as an arguments to implement broad global mitigation measures. • Evidence that recent change is part of an ongoing (predictable) pattern, or not. Serving as information to guide regional and local adaptation measures. This is what we need to know more about

  4. Dimension of D&A • Attribution – the competitors • Climate drivers – relatively easy; not too many drivers, such as urbanization, aerosol, land-use. • Impact drivers – hardly dealt with. Many drivers: eutrophication, pollution, overuse, regulation, globalization. • Example: Baltic Sea ecosystems “Mini-IPCC” assessment on knowledge about climate change in the Baltic Sea Basin

  5. Dimension of D&A • Falsification • Which observations in the coming 5/10 (?) years would lead to reject present attributions? • Suggestion: Formulate and freeze NOW falsifiable hypotheses, and test in 5/10 (?) years time – using the independent data of the additional years. • Suggestion: Have assessment done by scientists independent of those, who formulated the hypotheses.

More Related