Chap 4: Resources and Environment

1. Chap 4: Resources and Environment

2. Learning Objectives • Resources vs Consumption • Zero Sum Game & Optimal Population • Resource measurement & limits • Present food situation – distribution not production • Possible long term solutions • Local production • New food sources • Genetic alterations Food Resources

3. I. Resources and Population • Carrying Capacity vs Overpopulation • Recent growth of resource consumption in AICs [Advance Industrial Countries] has dwarfed growth of demand in LDCs • The issue isn't bodies, its consumption Food Resources

4. Zero Sum Game • Define Zero Sum Game Food Resources

5. ZERO SUM GAME From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia • describes a situation in which one participant's gain (or loss) is exactly balanced by the losses (or gains) of the other participant(s). • total gains of the participants and subtract the total losses then they will sum to zero. • In layman's terms, in order for one person to win, another must lose. Food Resources

6. ZERO SUM GAME Is the world resource issue a zero sum game? • What I have you don’t have • What I have you can’t have • Hint Marx implied a Zero sum game, Bill Gates and Milton Friedman don’t. http://www.marxists.org/archive/marx/photo/art/marx-11.jpg http://www.jmusheneaux.com/GATES2%20/bill-gates-mugshot.jpg Food Resources

7. ZERO SUM GAME ??? Over Population/Consumption • To play the "zero sum game" you need to know when you reach “zero” or full use, • at that we can only guess • this has been a moving target due to technological advancement Food Resources

8. ZERO SUM GAME ??? Over Population/Consumption • Consider that Overpopulation might be: • an unwanted child • as much as an unsupportable child • Over consumption might be a second automobile for someone in a nursing home as much as a Presidential candidate that doesn’t know how many homes he owns • Basically we hope this isn’t a zero sum game Food Resources

9. Optimum Population • What is the Optimum Population for the world, USA, WA State. • Start by estimating the current population for each Food Resources

10. Current Population • World & USA see world clock http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html • WA State • http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/53000.html Food Resources

11.  Optimum Population • What is it? -- its all in the eyes of the perceiver, • Its the quagmire of sustainable development • Everyone is for this • But no one can adequately describe it • We can only assert the negative • What it isn’t Food Resources

12. Optimum Population • The Mayans thought their population was optimal until it collapsed • What is sustainable energy use? Should all fossil fuels be banned? What about hydro dams (called “bridge power” by Patick McCully, 2003)? Food Resources

13. Unfortunate Conclusion Bottom Line • Everyone worries about the possibility of the Zero Sum Game • Everyone talks Sustainable Development • No one knows what Optimum Population or Consumption is Food Resources

14. II. Types of resources and their limits (Define terms) • Resource Definition: If its presumed useable and finite (i.e. has a market/ “true price”), then its a resource • star-shine, not a resource (today) • air, not understood as a resource • However Viewsheds are a resource Food Resources

15. Define Resource Amount • What is the difference between a • Reserve • Projected Reserve • Resource Food Resources

16. Measuring and Defining Resources A. Reserves, Projected Reserves, (total) Resources Reserves – known & available with current technology & at current prices (today) Projected Reserves – based on expected future prices & technologies (tomorrow) Resources – materials in the Environment that may someday be used (unknown if ever) Food Resources

17. Example with Gold • Reserves – current mines and gold fields • Projected Reserves – possible deeper and more difficult to extract ores, currently not profitable to mine • Resources – includes things like sea water which has gold, but may never be economical to extract Food Resources Gold Ore

18. Resource Type Class exercise • In the energy field give an example of a reserve, projected reserve, and resource • Define Human Resources – what are they Food Resources

19. B. Defining Resource by Types Food Resources

20. C. Renewable resource and maximum sustainable yield An Endless Debate Food Resources

21. Recent good news -- click Bad news -- click Food Resources

22. Global Fisheries Collapse Predicted Pew Marine Conservation Fellows Co-Author Science Article on Impacts of biodiversity loss on ocean ecosystem services.November 06, 2006 A recent Science publication warns that the world will run out of seafood by 2048 if steep declines in marine species continue at current rates, based on a four-year study of catch data and the effects of fisheries collapses. The co-authors of the paper, written by an international group of ecologists and economists, include Pew Marine Conservation Fellows Carl Folke, Stephen Palumbi, and Enric Sala. world will run out of seafood by 2048 http://www.pewoceanscience.org/press/press-article.php?ID=58 Food Resources

23. Global Fisheries Collapse Predicted Details The recent paper, published in the journal Science (Worm et al. 2006), predicts the global collapse (defined as fish catches dropping below 10 percent of historic catches) of all currently fished taxa by 2048. The prediction is based on a meta-analysis of published data in which the authors examined the effects of declining species diversity on marine ecosystem services. Results suggest that the loss of biodiversity in coastal ecosystems has led to the impairment of critical ecosystem services, such as the filtering services provided by suspension feeders and submerged vegetation that contribute to the maintenance of high water quality. The authors also used the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization’s global catch database for the period from 1950 to 2003 to examine relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem services in 64 large marine ecosystems (greater than 150,000 square-km). This analysis revealed that 29 percent of all fished species had collapsed by 2003 and ecosystems with the fewest species suffered the greatest rates of collapse. The authors note that large marine ecosystems with higher species diversity also recovered more quickly following periods of overexploitation, perhaps due to the improved abilities of fishers to switch among species, thus giving overexploited species the opportunity to recover. Finally, the authors examined relationships between biodiversity and ecosystem services in 44 marine reserves and four large-scale fisheries closures. On average, these regions had species richness 23 percent greater than non-protected areas. Tourism revenue, measured as the number of dive trips, also was increased in these areas, suggesting that not only do diverse marine fisheries serve as major global food sources, but they also provide opportunities for recreation. The authors conclude that the loss of marine biodiversity is negatively impacting the marine ecosystem services on which we depend. Yet they believe the trend is reversible and, therefore, urge the restoration of biodiversity through careful management of fisheries, maintenance of pollution-free habitats, and creation of marine reserves. CitationWorm, B., E.B. Barbier, N. Beaumont, J.E. Duffy, C. Folke, B.S. Halpern, J.B.C. Jackson, H.K Lotze, F. Micheli, S.R. Palumbi, E. Sala, K.A. Selkoe, J.J. Stachowicz, and R. Watson. 2006. Impacts of biodiversity loss on ocean ecosystem services. Science 314: 787-790. Link to Abstract in Science Magazine Food Resources

24. Food Resources

25. He quoted an estimate from the World Bank that if all fisheries around the world were better managed, they would be worth $50bn a year more than their current total contribution of $274bn to global GDP. But the number of fisheries that are subject to a sustainable management programme are still a minority, and global fish stocks are falling fast. According to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation, at least a third are now overexploited, depleted or recovering from depletion, and this figure is rising. would be worth $50bn a year more than their current total contribution of $274bn to global GDP Food Resources

26. Examples • Will Cod fishing ever return to Newfoundland? • Should irrigation agriculture be banned over the Ogallala Aquifer in the US? • Should American students buy cheap Chinese furniture made from SE Asian wood? Food Resources

27. Newfoundland Cod • Fishing methods and the fishery collapse • In 1951 factory fishing began with new super-trawlers such as the 'Fairtry'; 280 feet long and 2,600 gross tons.[3] • The cod catch peaked in 1968 at 810,000 tons, approximately three times more than the maximum yearly catch achieved before the super-trawlers. Approximately 8 million tons of cod were caught between 1647 and 1750, a period encompassing 25 to 40 cod generations. The factory trawlers took the same amount in 15 years.[5] • The industry collapsed entirely in the early 1990s owing to overfishing and debatably, greed, lack of foresight and poor local administration.[6] By 1993 six cod populations had collapsed, forcing a belated moratorium on fishing.[5] Spawning biomass had decreased by at least 75% in all stocks, by 90% in three of the six stocks, and by 99% in the case of 'northern' cod, previously the largest cod fishery in the world.[5] • After a 10 year moratorium on fishing the cod had still not returned.[7] It is likely that the local ecosystem has changed, one example being that greater numbers of capelin, which used to provide food for the cod, now eat the juvenile cod.[citation needed] The waters now appear to be dominated by crab and shrimp rather than fish.[7] • http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cod_fishing_in_Newfoundland Food Resources

28. Newfoundland Timeline • 1500s – Basque fishermen arrive • 1951 – Factory Fishing Begins • 1968 – Peak catch 810,000 tons • Comparison 1647-1750 8 mil. Tons caught, factory trawlers caught same amount in 15 yrs • 1977 Canada Extends boundary out 200 miles – then proceeds to decimate what’s left • 1978 Collapse already noticable • 1988 call for cutting quotas by 50% instead compromise at 10% • 1992 – fish stocks down to 1% of 1960s levels, fishing halted • 1993 – six cod populations had collapsed including northern cod the largest cod fishery in the world • 1996 – fishery closed – too little, too late Food Resources Source: http://www.emagazine.com/archive/507

29. Are Tuna Next? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M5o8lwwanuc Food Resources

30. More on Tuna http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i5mMI8t7vV0&feature=related Food Resources

31. Is there hope – mixed evidence from Newfoundland http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ikRWTyE2xo Food Resources

32. III. Food resources -- Let's Consider the Situation A. Main Point: Today the problem is not production it is distribution -- What does this mean? • Asia and Latin America have seen recent per capita gains • Not so in Africa (where will the next wave of immigrants come from?) Food Resources

33. Food Problems • Note the Food Shortage Link to Deserts • What might global warming do? World Deserts Food Resources

34. Example of Desert Belts http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/GlobalMaps/view.php?d1=TRMM_3B43M# Food Resources

35. Climate Zones & Deserts Food Resources http://www.blueplanetbiomes.org/climate.htm

36. Deserts are encroaching cities. Photograph by Georg Gerster. Sahara dunes tower over Nouakchott, capital of Mauritania, like a big hungry monster. Just 5,000 years ago the Sahara was covered with grasses and shrubs. http://didyouknow.org/deserts/# Food Resources http://www.greenfacts.org/en/desertification/figtableboxes/appendix-a.htm

37. Caloric Intake View Does this look too familiar Food Resources

38. B. Resulting Problem:  Maledistribution CAUSES 1. TRANSPORT:  Local transport unable to respond to acute, sudden needs (but *AIC’s air transport can, at greater cost) • political unrest always a wildcard here, consider the problems of Tsunami Aid in Indonesia and Sri Lanka *AIC = Advance Industrialized Country Food Resources

39. Example Diary of a cross-Africa Biker:   On my way to Uganda, not far from the Uganda border, I could choose out of two (dirt) roads only (a third option would lead me to a small civil war in the north of Uganda, that is no choice). A bad one and a very bad one. Because the bad one was bad enough for me I chose to take the shortcut from Mambassa to Beni. The other main dirt road of north Zaïre was actually the only road, connecting the north from Zaïre to the east of Zaïre. But because of the raining season and the enormous potholes, it was impossible for the old Fiat and Mercedes trucks to pass. There was no traffic possible for several weeks already! The road I decided to conquer was too small for the trucks and therefore not so bad, I thought. http://www.euronet.nl/users/arold/bridge.html ZAIRE Population 32,000,000 Area 2,345,457 sq km (Four times larger than Texas) Capital Kinshasa.  Large state taking up the central part of Africa. Apart from narrow strip to the Atlantic Ocean http://hammer.prohosting.com/~penz/encycl/z1encyc.htm Food Resources

40. 2. STORAGE and MARKETING Storage and Marketing major concerns -- limits food availability • Storage problems reflect a short time horizon • Large losses to Spoilage and Pests Food Resources

41. 2. STORAGE and MARKETING Lack of Free Markets • Lack of adequate communication, transportation, & incentives leads to hoarding • true "free" market could largely overcome this issue • landlordism vs landless ("Monopoly", not the game) -- low incentive to produce surplus • Poor Financial Markets -- money lenders that are like parasites Food Resources

42. 3. SITE CONSIDERATION Variation in global FOOD resource potential • Americans as the "Opec" leader of grain? • Can't move the mountain, then move to the mountain (immigration pull factor???) Food Resources

43. Question • Name other countries that are top 10 food exporters • Second try ranking them • If you can’t think of 10 then give as many as possible Food Resources

44. 3. Variation in global FOOD resource potential • Americans as the "Opec" leader of grain? – Note also Europe Food Resources

45. 4. Additional Issues • Civil Unrest -- even if food potential high, not available • Environmental Decline -- production can decline • REASONS • lack of full knowledge -- leads to destructive practices • population pressures • tragedy of the commons • "bad science" Food Resources

46. 4. Additional Issues cont. • Government Policy & Debt • No discipline of the marketplace • What did American banks do when offered a “free lunch”? • Punish the farmers, Bribe the industrial workers (the shadow of Stalin and central planning) • Sound like the Washington Consensus? Food Resources

47. 4. Additional Issues cont. (Neo Classical?) Structure of Agriculture • Big Farmer vs Small Farmer debate • Issue of a maximizer versus a satisficer • Scale economies not available to small farmers • Cash crops not food favored by big landlords • is there no free market for food in third world? Graph for a typical 3rd World Nation This demonstrates that larger farms produce a greater percentage of food for the market, but doesn’t address output per acre Food Resources

48. 4. Additional Issues cont. • “Unfair” Agricultural Subsidies • Can the third world compete with subsidized first world farmers??? Recall France’s position in surplus/export production. • Example: The US has the highest priced sugar in the world??? Why? • Why can’t we buy cheaper Mexican sugar, our NAFTA partner? • What does this do tocandy manufacturing jobs? Food Resources

49. D. Suggested Solutions to Food Resource Issue Food Resources

50. Suggestions • Give at least two suggestions Food Resources