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Domestic Heating Fuel Choice Study (aka The Direct Use of Gas)

Domestic Heating Fuel Choice Study (aka The Direct Use of Gas). Michael Schilmoeller NW Power and Conservation Council presentation for the RTF Tuesday, January 4, 2011. Overview. Progress to date Input data assumptions. More Realistic Representation.

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Domestic Heating Fuel Choice Study (aka The Direct Use of Gas)

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  1. Domestic HeatingFuel Choice Study(aka The Direct Use of Gas) Michael Schilmoeller NW Power and Conservation Council presentation for the RTF Tuesday, January 4, 2011

  2. Overview • Progress to date • Input data assumptions

  3. More Realistic Representation • More existing situations (segment groups) • More conversion opportunities (segments) • Energy distribution of the appliances • Restrictions on replacement-in-kind of hot water heaters with capacity > 55 gallons • Adopt more stringent federal standards • Eliminate electric resistance tank and conventional gas tank as retrofit options • Use HPWH and high-efficiency condensing gas as retrofit options

  4. More Realistic Representation • Recognition for air conditioning • If existing space heating is a heat pump, and retrofit is not a heat pump, add the cost and energy contribution of air conditioning to the retrofit values • But! Ignore the air-conditioning value of a heat pump to the retrofit values if the existing space heat is not a heat pump.

  5. More Realistic Representation • Ignoring all gas hydronic systems • Both existing and as retrofit • Exclude gas/HP hybrid • Assume multi-family type housing do not have basements • Exclude all-electric to all-electric segments, where no gas is available • Exclude zonal conversions to electric FAF is excluded

  6. New Segment Groups

  7. 20 New Segment GroupsAssociated withFAF Electric and Electric DHW Determine retrofit baseline

  8. New Segments

  9. 20 segments Associated withElectric FAF and Electric DHW → Gas FAF Electric and Instant Gas DHW

  10. Conversion Potential Issues • Synthesis from various sources of data • Appliance lives and the effect on turnover

  11. Application of Surveys American Community Survey 2008 Estimates from other sources

  12. Application of Surveys PNRES 92

  13. Progress to Date • New draft of input data received 10/30 • Review and simplification of • annual costs and energy calculations • conversion potential in progress [in progress] • seasonal and subperiod energy distribution [in progress] • Remaining • Coding to accommodate seasonal and subperiod energy distributions • Simulations and analysis

  14. Appliance Life and Turnover • Lifetime for space heating equipment is taken as 18 years. Lifetime for water heating equipment is taken as 14 years. • For the segment existing gas FAF and electric resistance hot water, it is assumed there would be little cost in running an extra line for DWH. The decision is trigged by the failure of either piece of equipment. The effective appliance “life” is a little over 8 years. • For all other existing segment groups, the conversion decision is triggered by the life of the space heating equipment.

  15. Overview • Progress to date • Input data assumptions

  16. Costand Use Data for Space Heating

  17. Cost and UseData for Water Heating

  18. Gas Connection Costs

  19. Energy Distributions • On- and off-peak distribution of energy • Seasonal distribution • Five principal distributions • Model will carry along electric energy assumptions and results data for each one

  20. Power Distribution forDomestic Hot Water Average on-peak requirement to off-peak* requirement: 1.93 *Sunday is all off-peak

  21. Energy Distributions Winter water heating on- to off-peak ratio: 1.70 (=1.373/.0820)

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