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Direct Use of Natural Gas

Direct Use of Natural Gas. Status of Analysis Staff Analysis. Today’s Agenda: Review of Major Analytical Input Assumptions Present Preliminary Results (Not Findings!). March 18, 2011. Today’s Results = Status Report, Not Final Answer. We Aren’t Testing Every Option

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Direct Use of Natural Gas

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  1. Direct Use of Natural Gas Status of Analysis Staff Analysis Today’s Agenda: Review of Major Analytical Input Assumptions Present Preliminary Results (Not Findings!) March 18, 2011

  2. Today’s Results = Status Report, Not Final Answer We Aren’t Testing Every Option We Haven’t Tested Alternative Input Assumptions We Haven’t Adjusted the Conservation Resource Potential for the impact of conversions to or from electricity to natural gas

  3. We Aren’t Testing Every Option • Some conversion options are excluded • Electric zonal to Electric FAF • Reason: Conversion cost more and uses more • Electric or Gas FAF to Ductless Heat Pumps • Reason: Assuming consumer preference is to use existing central system • Conversion to “dual fuel” systems (i.e., heat pump with gas furnace) • Reason: While this is the “optimal” solution if “cross-over” temperature between heat pump and gas furnace is determined by current relative fuel prices, the technology is not available to implement this option (Smart Grid (or Google, Apple?) may enable this)

  4. We Will Test Additional Scenarios • The “benefits/value” of providing air conditioning when converting to a heat pump are set to $0. • Energy use and cost are based on “market” quality installation, not utility/ETO program requirements • Duct systems are not assumed to be sealed at time of installation • No heat pump controls/commissioning is assumed • Name plate furnace & heat pump efficiencies are set at federal minimums • With your guidance/input we intend to test alternative assumptions

  5. Conservation Measures Affected by Conversions

  6. HVAC and DHW System Conversion Cost and Energy Use Assumptions

  7. Space Conditioning Estimates • Source: SEEM calibrated simulation results from weatherization and heat pump conversion/upgrade analysis • Gas consumption assumes identical model input assumptions as electric forced air, adjusted for furnace conversion efficiency (AFUE 90%) • Climate = PNW Weighted Average • Should we do each heating zone analysis after initial results are reviewed?

  8. Water Heating Use Estimates • Source: DOE Water Heater Standard’s Rulemaking Life Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analytical Spreadsheets (http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/residential/water_pool_heaters_nopr_tools.html) • PNW average daily hot water assumptions used in lieu of DOE test procedure values: • < 55 gal tanks: 56 gal/day for SF & 38 gal/day MF • >55 gal tanks 64.4 gal/day for SF • Gas system use assumes same input assumptions as electric resistance

  9. Home Sized Revised to Reflect Correlation with System Types and Basements* *Source: PNRES92

  10. Base Case Energy Use Assumptions – Space Heating *Ductless Heat Pump Use Assumed to be 60% of Zonal Electric. This Assumption Results In Lower Use Than Air Source Heat Pump w/o Duct Sealing & System Commissioning.

  11. Base Case Energy Use Assumptions – Space Cooling *Ductless Heat Pump Cooling Use is Lower Than Central AC or Air Source Heat Pump DHP’s are assumed to achieve SEER 14 vs SEER 13 for Central AC & Heat Pumps.

  12. Space Conditioning System Cost (2009$) Ductless Heat Pumps are assumed to have lower installed cost than air source heat pumps, independent (i.e., excluding ) of the cost of duct systems.

  13. Space Conditioning O&M Cost (2009$)

  14. Duct System Cost (2009$)

  15. Water Heating System Cost & Use Assumptions

  16. Base Case Water Heating Assumptions

  17. Next Steps Revise inputs per guidance provided today Adjust conservation “supply curves” to reflect changes in electric/gas “units” due to conversions Re-run RPM Consider “customer perspective” (i.e., review economics of conversion from end users perspective using retail gas and electric rates

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