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Colette L. Heald NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow

Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change. Colette L. Heald NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow University of California, Berkeley (heald@atmos.berkeley.edu)

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Colette L. Heald NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow

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  1. Predicted change in global secondary organic aerosol concentrations in response to future climate, emissions, and land-use change Colette L. Heald NOAA Climate and Global Change Postdoctoral Fellow University of California, Berkeley (heald@atmos.berkeley.edu) Daven Henze,Larry Horowitz, Johannes Feddema, Jean-Francois Lamarque,Alex Guenther, Peter Hess, Francis Vitt, Allen Goldstein, Inez Fung, John Seinfeld International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics July 9, 2007

  2. ORGANIC CARBON AEROSOL Secondary Organic Aerosol Semi- Volatiles Partitioning (non-linear) Primary Organic Aerosol Oxidation by OH, O3, NO3 Monoterpenes Sesquiterpenes Aromatics Isoprene Direct Emission Fossil Fuel Biomass Burning BIOGENIC SOURCES ANTHROPOGENIC SOURCES

  3. WHY WE SHOULDN’T FOCUS EXCLUSIVELY ON SULFATE… Sulfate Organics [Zhang et al., in press] Organic carbon aerosol is the green part of the pie  globally more than sulfate

  4. MODELING FRAMEWORK Community Land Model (CLM3) Datasets: Lawrence and Chase [2007] Feddema et al. [2007] LAI (MODIS) Plant Functional Types Soil moisture Vegetation Temperature BVOC Algorithms [Guenther et al., 1995; 2006] Monterpenes: GEIA Isoprene: MEGAN Vegetation Meteorology BVOC Emissions Radiation Precipitation Community Atmospheric Model (CAM3) Chemistry Transport Radiation SOA production 2-product model from oxidation of: 1. Monoterpenes [Chung and Seinfeld, 2002] 2. Isoprene [Henze and Seinfeld, 2006] 3. Aromatics [Henze et al., 2007] Anthropogenic Emissions, GHG concentrations, SST

  5. PRESENT-DAY (2000) SOA Isoprene is the largest SOA source in this simulation, and also the longest lived  dominates burden

  6. PRESENT/PROJECTED BIOGENIC EMISSIONS 2100: 607 TgC/yr 496 TgC/yr 2100: 51 TgC/yr 43 TgC/yr 22% increase primarily driven by global temperature increases (1.8°C)

  7. PRESENT/PROJECTED ANTHROPOGENIC EMISSIONS 2100: A1B: 72 TgC/yr A2: 96 TgC/yr 45 TgC/yr 2100: A1B: 20 TgC/yr A2: 35 TgC/yr 16 TgC/yr Large increases predicted, especially over Asia

  8. CHANGES IN TOTAL SOA CONCENTRATIONS IN 2100 (A1B) FROM PRESENT-DAY ΔAnthropogenic Emissions ΔBiogenic Emissions ΔClimate Surface SOA Zonal SOA Global Burden +7% +6% +26%

  9. CHANGES IN SOA CONCENTRATIONS IN 2100 FROM PRESENT-DAY DUE TO LAND-USE CHANGE (A2) Feddema et al. [2007] Projections SOA (TOTAL) BVOC emissions Isoprene Monoterpenes Expansion of croplands (low BVOC emitters) at the expense of broadleaf trees OVERALL SOA BURDEN: -14%

  10. TOTAL EFFECT OF EMISSIONS & CLIMATE ON SOA TOTAL SOA Climate and Emission: +36% Anthropogenic Land-use: -14% Natural Vegetation: ??

  11. SOA SENSITIVITY SIMULATIONS: REGIONAL SOA SOURCES South America is the largest SOA source in present-day but significant growth expected for Asia by 2100 (and may overtake South America as the largest SOA source region under an A2 scenario).

  12. CHANGES TO SOA PRODUCTION EFFICIENCY SOA production is less efficient under high NOx conditions. 2100-2000 2000 Surface NO/HO2 SOA production efficiency likely increase in EU and NA due to NOx ↓ but will decrease in urban regions of SH/tropics.

  13. INCREASING SOA: CLIMATE IMPLICATIONS? SULFATE Present-Day Burden: 0.5-0.7 TgS1 Projection:↓ by > 50% by 2100? SOA SOA Burden Present-Day Burden: 0.59 TgC Projection: 36%↑ Andreae et al. [2005] suggest ↓ sulfate will accelerate greenhouse gas warming, but SOA may compensate 1 [Koch et al., 1999; Barth et al., 2000; Takemura et al., 2000]

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