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Cotton Outlook and Farm Bill Updates

Cotton Outlook and Farm Bill Updates. Yangxuan ( Serinna ) Liu Assistant Professor and Extension Economist Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics The University of Georgia. 2019 UGA Cotton Extension Agent Trainings January 3 rd - January 4th, 2019. Cotton outlook.

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Cotton Outlook and Farm Bill Updates

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  1. Cotton Outlook and Farm Bill Updates Yangxuan (Serinna) Liu Assistant Professor and Extension Economist Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics The University of Georgia 2019 UGA Cotton Extension Agent Trainings January 3rd - January 4th, 2019

  2. Cotton outlook

  3. World Cotton Supply and Demand Data from USDA FAS

  4. Global Cotton Yield by Country and Year Data from USDA FAS

  5. Global Cotton Production by Country and Year Data from USDA FAS

  6. Global Cotton Stocks and Prices Source: USDA Cotton and Wool Outlook December 13, 2018

  7. US Cotton Acres Planted, Harvested, and Average Yield Per Acre Data from USDA NASS Slide from Dr. Don Shurley

  8. U.S. regional upland cotton production Source: USDA Cotton and Wool Outlook December 13, 2018

  9. Cotton Supply Chain Production Shipping and Handling FARMS GINS WAREHOUSES MERCHANTS Trucking, Rail, and maybe Ocean Shipping Manufacturing Apparel Factory Textile Factory Yarn Mill Ocean Shipping, Rail, and Trucking Retail Clothing and Home Furnishings Slide from Dr. John Robinson

  10. US Cotton Exports and Market Share (% of World Exports) Market Share Exports Data from USDA FAS Slide from Dr. Don Shurley

  11. U.S. Cotton Ending Stocks Data from USDA FAS

  12. Cotton Price Last 5 Years

  13. GA Cotton Acres Planted, Harvested, and Average Yield Per Acre Data from USDA NASS Slide from Dr. Don Shurley

  14. Hurricane Michael Losses • Initial estimates of farm gate value loss range from $550 million to $600 million with $74 million additional loss to Georgia Economy. • This includes losses related to cotton lint, cottonseed, and fiber quality reductions. • Data from specialists, County Extension Agents, growers, cotton gins and USDA. Source: FEMA and PDC Global. Hurricane Michael – Peak Wind Gusts (mph) by Census Tract - Georgia

  15. Cotton Takeaways United States Worldwide Production reduced Consumption increase Ending stock decrease Decrease ending stock in China Slow economic growth Maintain current world prices • Production decreases • Higher Acreage • Reduced yield • Export declines • U.S. dollar strengthened • Ending Stock increase • Pressure on lower U.S. prices

  16. Farm bill update

  17. Timeline of the 2018 Farm Bill

  18. Producer Election of ARC and PLC

  19. Producer Election of ARC and PLC

  20. Changes in PLC Program 1 2

  21. Effective Reference Price • For PLC, the statutory reference prices for covered commodities remain the same as in the 2014 Farm Bill. • The effective reference price permits the reference price to increase up to 115% of the statutory reference price.

  22. PLC Statutory Reference Prices

  23. PLC Payment Yield Updates

  24. Changes in ARC Program • Beginning in 2019, ARC-CO payments will be based on the physical location of the farm. • Farms that cross multiple counties being prorated into each county. • For ARC-CO program, the 5-year Olympic average yield will use the higher of the county average yield or 80% ( from 70%) of the county transitional yield.

  25. Marketing Assistance Loans

  26. Payment Limitations • Payment limits are still $125,000, with a separate payment limit for peanuts. • First cousins, nieces, and nephews are now included in the family members eligible for payments. • Adjusted Gross Income limits remain at $900,000 per person or legal entity.

  27. Contact Information Yangxuan (Serinna) Liu, Ph.D. Assistant Professor and Extension Economist Department of Agricultural & Applied EconomicsUniversity of Georgia – Tifton Campus 2360 Rainwater Rd., Tifton, GA 31793Phone: (229) 386-3512E-mail: Yangxuan.Liu@uga.edu

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