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Agriculture Outlook 2008: Farm Bill, Wind Energy and Climate Change

Climate Change and Agriculture. John M. Antle Dept. of Ag Econ & Econ. Agriculture Outlook 2008: Farm Bill, Wind Energy and Climate Change. Overview. Facts and hypotheses Climate change issues: impacts, adaptation, mitigation The evidence: Global, US, regional and MT Policy implications.

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Agriculture Outlook 2008: Farm Bill, Wind Energy and Climate Change

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  1. Climate Change and Agriculture John M. Antle Dept. of Ag Econ & Econ Agriculture Outlook 2008: Farm Bill, Wind Energy and Climate Change

  2. Overview • Facts and hypotheses • Climate change issues: impacts, adaptation, mitigation • The evidence: Global, US, regional and MT • Policy implications

  3. Facts • Greenhouse effect • GHG emissions • Observed changes • Warming • More extemes • Sea-level rise • Glacial, ice-cap melting • Seasonal shifts see www.ipcc.ch

  4. Hypotheses • Observed changes are anthropogenic (caused by human GHG emissions) • Impacts (costs) of CC will be sufficient to warrant mitigation or adaptation • Mitigation actions can reduce climate change and are more cost effective than adaptation

  5. The evidence that CC is anthropogenic…

  6. Emissions scenarios and global temps…

  7. Impacts and adaptation: stay and adapt or move? • Population: from coasts & south & southwest to inland & north • Agriculture: from extremes of temperature & precipitation to more favorable places • Changes in crops, management • CO2 fertilization effect • Insect, disease, weeds?

  8. Impact assessment: Global • Positive: temperate regions with good soils & increases in precipitation • Negative: tropical regions, areas with lower precipitation • Coastal areas, tropical dryland areas highly vulnerable • IPCC predicts “…a marginal increase in the number of people at risk of hunger due to climate change.”

  9. Impact assessment: U.S. • Regional differences important • Yield impacts negative in south, mixed or positive in mid-west, plains, northwest • Livestock impacts negative (5-10%) • Changes in planting dates, crop mix in transitional areas • Western areas vulnerable to drought • Aggregate impacts small, may be positive

  10. Impact assessment: U.S. Regions

  11. Impact assessment: Montana Wheat & Barley Montana Agro-ecozones (MLRAs)

  12. Mitigation: Global Costs (IPCC)

  13. Mitigation: Potential for Soil Carbon Sequestration in Northern Plains Crop and Grazing Lands

  14. Policy Implications U.S. mitigation policies likely with new U.S. administration: carbon cap-and-trade • Higher costs of fossil fuels • Opportunities for agricultural mitigation: conservation tillage, grazing management • Opportunities for wind energy and bio-fuels?

  15. For more information: • www.ipcc.ch (summary for policy makers) • www.choicesmagazine.org/2008-1/index.htm • www.climate.montana.edu

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