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Population Viability Analysis theory and tools

structure. When is a population viable?When is a (meta)population viable?using knowledge systems to analyse viabilitydeveloping standardsLARCH in 4 stepsexample: using LARCH to analyse barrier effects

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Population Viability Analysis theory and tools

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    1. Population Viability Analysis theory and tools Rogier Pouwels René Jochem Jana Verboom

    3. When is a population viable? Schaffer: probability of at least 95% to survive 100 years assuming no immigration Minimum Viable Population / Minimum Area Requirements species specific

    4. habitat is fragmented

    5. metapopulations / ecological networks Levins 1970 a metapopulation is a population of (sub)populations, connected by dispersal all species live in metapopulations

    6. t = 1 t = 2

    7. probability of occurrence

    8. probability of occurrence

    9. When is a metapopulation viable? probability of extinction lower then 5% in 100 years all (sub)populations are not occupied probability of occurrence is 95% in one subpopulation -> metapopulation is viable

    11. different methods to analyse viability

    12. Why knowledge systems? ‘simple’ concepts empirical data -> 100 years dynamic models complex many simulations for one analysis due to stochastic processes

    15. key patches have low local extinction support habitatnetwork with immigrants are species specific

    16. dynamical models (METAPHOR) spatial; different (sub)populations demographic processes; BIDE-model environmental processes stochastic use probability of occurrence for calibration and validation

    17. viability of (sub)populations -> 95% occurrence

    18. 5 years Bittern occupied/ not occupied

    19. 5 years Bittern occupied/ not occupied

    20. viability of (sub)populations -> 95% occurrence

    21. develop standards for viability

    22. key patch standards KP long-lived / large 20 birds and mammals intermediate 40 birds and mammals short-lived / small 100 birds and mammals

    23. minimal viable metapopulation standards KP MVP MVMP MVMP +KP -KP long-lived / large 20 30 80 120 birds and mammals intermediate 40 60 120 200 birds and mammals short-lived / small 100 150 150 200 birds and mammals

    24. 1. any patch in the network exceeds Minimum Viable Population size 2. there is a key patch and the total network is large enough 3. there is no key patch but the total network size is very large A habitat network is sustainable if:

    26. input vegetationmap determine suitable habitat density parameters distinguish local populations home range / size of territory standard for key patch and MVP distinguish habitat network dispersal distance species specific barriers evaluate habitat network configuration of network standards for sustainability LARCH analyses (4 steps)

    27. LARCH determine suitable habitat

    28. LARCH distinguish and evaluate local populations

    29. LARCH distinguish habitat network

    30. LARCH evaluate habitat network

    31. LARCH result -> viability map

    32. using LARCH question: which roads effect Dutch fauna answer: 2 analyses with LARCH for several species viability analyses with roads viability analyses without roads compare analyses select roads

    33. effect of barriers for bank vole

    34. effect of barriers for root vole

    35. effect of barriers

    36. answer: roadmap of the Netherlands

    37. ‘rules of thumb’ in LARCH create key patches or MVP’s within network habitat patches within dispersal distance no barriers between habitat patches

    38. improving LARCH: dispersal complex SMALLSTEPS (IBM) develop standards new concepts

    39. dispersal

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