MALTHUSIAN POPULATION THEORY

1. MALTHUSIAN POPULATION THEORY Annan Saeed

2. Thomas Robert Malthus • Thomas Robert Malthus (13 or 14 February 1766 – 23 or 29 December 1834) • Member of The Royal Society of London • Influential inpolitical economy and demographic studies

3. An Essay on the Principle of Population • Six editions • published from 1798 to 1826 • Wrote in opposition to the popular view in 18th-century Europe (society as improving and in principle as perfectible) • Malthus became hugely influential, and controversial, in economic, political, social and scientific thought • Malthusianism became an intellectual stepping-stone to the idea of natural selection

4. ASSUMPTIONS • Food is an essential component for human existence • Humans have the basic urge to multiply

5. The Principle of Population outlined a fascinating vision of the relationship between ‘population growth’ and what Malthustermed as ‘subsistence’ Heargued that population expanded ‘geometrically’ while subsistence increases only at an ‘arithmetic ratio.’

6. Arithmetic and Geometric • Malthus stated that population increases geometrically Thus, increases along the order of 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32... • Subsistence increases arithmetically i.e. It limps along at the rate of 1, 2, 3, 4, …. 

7. Great Britain as a huge farm (fixed acreage) • Potential for rapid population growth • Increase in the output of products (more labour is applied to a fixed amount of land) • Increments to output grow at a declining rate due to the law of diminishing returns

8. Diminishing returns drive up the incremental output of additional labour down to zero • Wage payments eat up entire output of the economy • No nonwage income is available for capital formation • Stationary state, where population has grown to its maximum size and the bulk of the population is living at a bare subsistence level

9. Malthus believed that there is unchecked reproduction by an immoral lower class would lead to geometric (exponential) increases in population" and double every 25 years • Food supplies are in a limited quantity and an area can support a particular population, agriculture productivity would gradually diminish because of decreasing soil fertility

10. Eventually the growth of the population must slow down or it will be stopped or supplies will run out • Malthus stated that if this growth trend were allowed to continue, it would lead to widespread misery for the majority of the people. • Malthus' recommendation for slowing the population growth he called preventive checks

11. Basic Mechanism There are several factors at work: • In a situation of fixed resources, population growth directly affects consumption • With capital as a fixed variable, the production per worker falls with the addition of each new worker—this is the classical law of diminishing returns • An increasing population implies a population with a large base of children who are both consumers and non-producers—thus, less production per capita

12. At a fixed income, population growth will shift investment from savings and human-capital development to subsistence • Ceteris paribus assumption, where all other variables in the logical equation are assumed constant and fixed This implies an in-direct relationship between population and subsistence, where increases or decreases in one would cause the inverse in the other

13. MALTHUS AND CLASS STRUCTURE • Malthus was opposed to reform and any type of aid to the poor or lower working class—primarily because of his theory of population • For Malthus, the ultimate difference between the rich and the poor was the high moral characterof the rich • Only the wealthy or moral upper class of people would keep the population rate in mind • If everyone's wealth and income increased through reforms that had the effect of wealth or income redistribution, the lower class, would respond by having more children

14. Thus majority of people to return again to their subsistence level of living • Thus any policy that favoured or helped the lower working class resulted in a redistribution of wealth and income • Thus increasing the number of poor, Malthus opposed any such policy

15. The established class structure would inevitably re-emerge even after reforms are successful Because of inevitable consequences of natural laws

16. HOW WILL THE CONDITIONS GO BACK TO WHERE THEY WERE EVEN AFTER THE SUCCESS OF WELFARE POLICIES?

17. Human society could never be perfected • Man will lead a satisfied life as long as his family is well fed • As soon as human population would feel constraints in food supply due to increase in population, he would again work hard to provide enough for his family

18. It leads to an increase in agricultural production to provide for all • Man would be back to his complacent stage, where all his needs would be fulfilled • The cycle of overpopulation and food shortage, all over again • A time will come when the excessive use of agricultural land will not be able to produce enough to support the growing population thus resulting in famines and positive checks on population

19. Proposed Solutions

20. PREVENTIVE CHECKS • Preventive checks as methods that people consciously use to slow down the rapid growth of the population • Late marriages, celibacy, and spacing children further apart • Postponing marriages, couples could take responsibility for the number of children they have

21. Reduce birth rates • This idea of Preventive checks was aimed only at the rich as he thought poor people did not have the capacity to exercise such restraint • In his opinion, poor should be kept poor • He suggested jobs be created for them, and increase food production and educational opportunities

22. Positive Checks • If preventive checks were not observed, then the rapid growth of the population would be stopped by nature • Malthus called them Positive checks • Population would experience premature deaths

23. War, for example, would be an able tool for depopulation • Epidemics, plagues, natural disasters, famines, and other pestilence will "with one mighty blow, level the population" (Malthus, 1798)

24. Moral Restraint • Included in the second edition • One should refrain from marriage till the time he is capable of supporting a family with food, clothing and shelter • “He (Malthus) went so far as to claim that moral restraint on a wide scale was the best means indeed, the only means of easing the poverty of the lower classes” (Geoffrey Gilbert)

25. Having been a clergy, Malthus validated his theory on moral grounds that suffering was a way of making human beings realize the virtues of hard work and moral behaviour

26. CRITICISMS Karl Marx: Argued that Malthus failed to recognize the potential of human population to increase food supply. He is accused by many to have failed to comprehend man's ability to use science and technology to increase food supply to meet the needs of an increasing population

27. Social Darwinism: High fertility was thought to be a sign of the strength and vitality of a given nation or race (more numbers of citizens equalled greater military security and greater economic growth) Governments wanted to encourage fertility amongst those who were judged ‘fittest’ Physically and Morally