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The Evolution of the Pentagon’s Strategic Warfighting Resource and Risk Process

Maximize Joint Warfighting Capabilities. Strategic/ Operational Context. Warfighting Analytics. Investment Strategy. The Evolution of the Pentagon’s Strategic Warfighting Resource and Risk Process. …are we solving the right problem?. COL Bob Larsen, PhD

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The Evolution of the Pentagon’s Strategic Warfighting Resource and Risk Process

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  1. Maximize Joint Warfighting Capabilities Strategic/ Operational Context Warfighting Analytics Investment Strategy The Evolution of the Pentagon’s Strategic Warfighting Resource and Risk Process …are we solving the right problem? COL Bob Larsen, PhD Chief, Acquisition and Sustainment Program Analysis Division Army PAE, G8

  2. JROC Capability Based Process

  3. Joint Defense Capability Process

  4. JROC Capability Based Process

  5. Continuous Early Validation (CEaVa) Context

  6. Trade Space for Cost-Performance Tradeoffs

  7. Cost as an Independent Variable (CAIV)— Knees of the Curve Analysis

  8. Capabilities Road Maps: Assess Quality/Jointness by Capability Capability 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Collection System A (Navy-Lead) System G (AF) System J (AF) Exploit/Analyze System B (AF) System C (Navy) System H(Army) C2 of ISR Assets System D (Army) System I (AF) System K (Navy) X Manage Knowledge System E (AF) System F (AF) System L (Army) Overall becomes green in 2014 Quality Good AND Jointness Achieved Quality Good OR Jointness Achieved Neither Quality Good NOR Jointness Achieved

  9. 04 05 06 07 08 09 Doctrine Experimentation IPR J Doctrine Re-write • Organization • Core Element JFCOM PACOM CENTCOM EUCOM SOUTHCOM Training SE Sim / TACEX FTX EXEVAL FTX FTX FTX • Materiel • CIE • DJC2 • ONA Increment 2 IOC Increment 1 FOC Increment 1 Increment 2 FOC IOC IOC Increment 1 FOC Leadership GO/FOs Identified Personnel DJC2 O&S Personnel Facilities Summary IOC FOC DOTMLPF Assessment Description: The inability to rapidly deploy a command element to forward operating areas. Capability Need Identified By: OPLANs XXXX, SPG, IPLs, and OIF Lessons Learned. Assigned FCB: Command and Control (C2) Potential Offset Risk Area: Legacy HQ operations, support, and O&M. Shortfall

  10. Capability Framework for Strategic Choices

  11. Joint Capability Based Process Risk Mitigation Capability ST vs LT Process that decomposes from policy guidance to warfighting concepts to capability areas, to materiel and nonmateriel potential solutions Capability Road Map • Top-down guidance • Enables the warfighter to shape and influence the trade space debate and document the discussion along the way • Provides the “trade space” discussion at the right level Policy Strategic Planning Guidance/ National Military Strategy Concepts Operational Availability Assess end of program forces in warfighting scenarios Provide operational capability with fielded systems to meet a capability gap FCB Capability Assessment/ DOTMLPF Assessment Assesses potential programmed capabilities in an warfighting operational context

  12. Summary DoD Transformation… Strategy Maintaining warfighting capability of current force while taking steps to reenforce the resource development of a more Joint, net-centric force Process Review Capabilities Assessment Identify Critical Capability Gaps, Excess areas, and possible mitigation Knees in the Curve MISSION ACCOMPLISHED Risk Mitigation Program Review & Budget Review Capability ST vs LT

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