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JMA Prediction System and Predictions for this summer

Gain insights into the JMA Prediction System and its outlook for this summer, including climate information, products, and monitoring. Explore the capabilities of the Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) and the Global Producing Center (GPC) in climate analysis and long-range forecasting.

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JMA Prediction System and Predictions for this summer

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  1. JMA Prediction SystemandPredictions for this summer Kiyotoshi Takahashi Senior Coordinator for Climate Modeling Climate Prediction Division Japan Meteorological Agency

  2. Contents 0. Overview of Climate Information from CPD/JMA Prediction system at CPD/JMA Outlook for this summer

  3. Climate Information and Products from CPD/JMA • RCC Tokyo (TCC: Tokyo Climate Center) • -TCC was established in April 2002.TCC was formally • designated as the RCC together with BCC in June 2009. • - Web page : http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/index.html Monitoring,forecast and climate change information - Capacity building (Training seminar) • GPC Tokyo - Provide GPV data for extended and long range prediction and hindcast -reachable from TCC web page • JMA-Reanalysis (JRA-25/JCDAS) - Second project, JRA-55 (55 years) is now under way. - Start in this year, Completion & data release in 2013

  4. Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) El Niño Monitoring & Outlook Monitoring World Climate Global Warming Climate System Monitoring NWP Model Prediction ClimateView GPC Monthly Highlights on Climate System 4

  5. Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) Seminar The seminar was attended by 11 participants from 11 countries engaged in operational long-range forecasting at NMHSs in East and Southeast Asia and the Pacific region (Bangladesh, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Mongolia, Pakistan, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, Thailand and Vietnam). TCC is planning a training seminar on seasonal prediction (using GPV data) in this autumn or winter. Training Seminar on Climate Analysis using Re-analysis Data with ITACS for 1-4 December, 2009

  6. Global Producing Center (GPC Tokyo) Function • To operate seasonal prediction system routinely • To provide global prediction GPV for NMHSs and RCCs • To provide verification products with SVSLRF including hindcasts Currently, 11 GPCs have been designated worldwide. Beijing, Exeter, Melbourne, Montreal, Moscow, Pretoria, Seoul, Tokyo, Toulouse, Washington and ECMWF Schedule of Data Provision at GPC Tokyo One month prediction weekly Three months prediction Around 20th of every month Seasonal prediction Around 20th in Feb., Mar. April, Sep. and Oct. Provision of regional(cutout) data is under consideration.

  7. Contents 0. Overview of Climate Information from JMA Prediction system at CPD/JMA Outlook for this summer

  8. JMA seasonal prediction system • Two EPSs are in operation routinely at CPD/JMA. • Atmospheric GCM (TL159L60) ５０ members by BGM(NH, Tropics) • one-month forecast • early warning information on extreme weather • Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled GCM (TL95L40) 51 members by LAF and atmospheric BGM • three-month prediction • seasonal outlook • El Niño outlook

  9. Outline of the EPS for seasonal forecast CGCM: JMA/MRI-CGCM • AGCM: JMA-GSM based on JMA/MRI unified model • TL95: 1.875 deg~180km • L40: model top = 0.4hPa • Land: SiB • Sea ice: climatology • Initial condition: JRA-25/JCDAS • Initial perturbation: BGM (TRO, NH) • OGCM: MRI.COM • 1.0deg in lon. X 0.3-1.0 deg in lat. • 75N-75S, 0-360E • L50 • Initial condition: MOVE/MRI-COM-G • Initial perturbation: driven with BGM (TRO) of AGCM • ENSEMBLE: BGM&LAF • Combination of BGM and LAF • 9 members for each initial date • Size: 51 ( ENSO forecast: 30 ) • Once a month

  10. Configuration of EPS Atmospheric perturbations (BGM) Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled model (JMA/MRI-CGCM) Atmospheric model (JMA-GSM) Atmospheric Data Assimilation （JRA-25/JCDAS） Coupler (flux adjustment) Observation Ocean Data Assimilation （MOVE/MRI.COM-G） Ocean model (MRI.COM)

  11. Seasonal Ensemble Prediction system Previous Current

  12. NINO.3.4 SST ACC: dependency on lead time(quote from Fig. 8 of Jin et al. 2008) Initial: February (1980-2001) Initial: August (1980-2001) 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 (JMA/MRI-CGCM) Lead time (month) Lead time (month) Evaluation is done based on Hindcast data NINO.3.4 region: 120W-170W, 5S- 5N Jin E. K., James L. Kinter III, B. Wang, C.-K. Park, I.-S. Kang, B. P. Kirtman, J.-S. Kug, A. Kumar, J.-J. Luo, J. Schemm, J. Shukla and T. Yamagata, 2008: Current status of ENSO prediction skill in coupled ocean–atmosphere models. Clim. Dyn., 31, 647–666.

  13. ACC of three-month mean SST • ACC with 4-month lead time for Jun-Aug in the CGCM. • The time series of ACC (average for 12 initial months) over Northern Indian Ocean (left) and over Tropical Western Pacific (right). Orange bar represents ACC with the CGCM, blue bar with the AGCM. The target years used for verification are 1984-2005.

  14. ACC of three-month mean Precipitation • Same as Fig.3a), but the CGCM (left) and AGCM (right). • Same as Fig.3b), but Indian monsoon area (left) and Northern Western Pacific monsoon area (right).

  15. Seasonal March in precipitation( Initial : end of January） MRI/JMA-CGCMdaily climatology（ Initial: end of January,1979-2008） GPCP daily climatology (1997-2007) Average for 65E-85E5 day running average Prediction of Indian monsoon seems to be slightly delayed , but is well predicted as a whole.

  16. Seasonal March in precipitation( Initial : end of April） MRI/JMA-CGCMdaily climatology（ Initial: end of April,1979-2008） GPCP daily climatology (1997-2007) Average for 65E-85E5 day running average

  17. Contents 0. Overview of Climate Information from JMA Prediction system at CPD/JMA Outlooks for this summer

  18. SST in March 2010 SST anomaly（Mar.2010） Composite of SST anomaly for El Nino（Mar) NINO.3-SST correlation（Mar) Normalized SST anomaly（Mar.2010）

  19. SST Monitoring NINO.3 （Deviation from the normal） +0.7℃ El Nino like -0.7 SOI NINO.WEST （Deviation from the normal) -0.08℃ IOBW （Deviation from the normal） +0.56℃

  20. Time sequence of NINO.3 SST anomalies for El Nino years NINO.3 SST anomaly for El Nino years (only cases starting in summer) NINO.3 SST anomaly for El Nino years

  21. Prediction of NINO.3 SST anomaly based on the latest 51 members Feb 5-month running mean Spring Summer Fall Spring Summer Fall Mar 5-month running mean

  22. Prediction of NINO.3 SST anomaly from the normal by JMA El Niño prediction system Feb El Niño is likely to terminate before this summer. Spring Summer Spring Summer Mar 5-month running mean

  23. Prediction of SST anomalies for the tropical western Pacific and the tropical Indian ocean IOBW (Indian Ocean) NINO.WEST Feb High SST continues until the mid-summer Spring Summer Spring Summer Mar

  24. Impact of IOBW on world climate (JJA) Impact of above-normal IOBW on world climate in boreal summer When above-normal IOBW SST persists through post-El Niño summer, impacts like theright panel are expected. Expectedatmospheric responses to warmer anomaly in IOBW SST. （Kelvin wave） Ref. Xie .et al(2009)

  25. Predictionsfor this summer(Jun-Aug) (initial:Mar.12, 2010) χ200 ψ200 Monsoon circulation is likely to be weakerthan the normal. Rain ψ850 These maps are available on the TCC web page. Z500 PSEA

  26. Three-month probabilistic prediction map from TCC site Surface Temperature for AMJ A Normal distribution is assumed as probability density function. Rainfall for AMJ This prediction map for AMJ was uploaded in the late March on TCC web page.

  27. Summary • Outlooks for this summer • - El Niñowill terminate in this spring. • - SST over the Indian basin will keep its high condition until • the middle of this summer. • - Monsoon activity over the south Asia is likely to be • weaker than the normal. • JMA seasonal EPS just has been upgraded in Feb 2010. Verification results with SVSLRF and the hindcast data are also available at GPC Tokyo. • JMA is supporting NMHSs’ works by providing climate monitoring, analysis and prediction data at TCC/GPCTokyo sites and holding a TCC training seminar. • JMA will continue and improve these services.

  28. Thank you for your attention In my neighborhood, Apr.8, 2010 Mt.Fuji, Apr.15, 2002

  29. Hindcast Experiments Design JUN JUL AUG JAN 10 members Lead Time : 4-6month Initial • The CGCM hindcast experiments are startedfrom the end of January. • Those of the 2-tier AGCM are started from Feb. 10th. • Period of the hindcast is22 years (1984-2005). • CO2 concentration is updated during the retrospective forecast period in CGCM. • Sea-ices and land surface conditions are fixed to the climatological values.

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