1 / 31

Products of the JMA Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for Seasonal Forecast

Products of the JMA Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for Seasonal Forecast. Shuhei Maeda Climate Prediction Division smaeda@naps.kishou.go.jp. Contents. 1. Introduction 2. Products of the EPS for one-month prediction 3. Products of the EPS for three-month outlook 4. Remarks.

linore
Download Presentation

Products of the JMA Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) for Seasonal Forecast

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Products of the JMA Ensemble Prediction System (EPS)for Seasonal Forecast Shuhei Maeda Climate Prediction Division smaeda@naps.kishou.go.jp

  2. Contents 1. Introduction 2. Products of the EPS for one-month prediction 3. Products of the EPS for three-month outlook 4. Remarks

  3. TCC Web page http://cpd2.kishou.go.jp/tcc/

  4. One-month prediction Three-month outlook

  5. 2. Products of the EPS for one-month prediction 1) Outline of the EPS 2) Performance of the system 3) Examples of products

  6. Atmosphere Land Ocean The EPSfor one-month prediction Analysis • Products • Map • Verification • ・GPV Atmospheric Model (Atmosphere-Land) Initial Boundary Condition persisted SST anomaly SST

  7. Example of ensemble prediction Initial Spread W Each member Ensemble mean 7 day running mean Z500 normalized anomaly over the western North Pacific (40N,140E-170E)

  8. Products ＊○○○A: anomalies of 　　○○○

  9. (continue) Products *Ratio of number of members whose anomaly is higher than 0.5SD to total number of ensemble menber at each grid point

  10. 2) Performance of the system

  11. Example of one-month prediction verification charts W Anomaly correlation scores of ensemble mean forecast in 2001 28 day (2-29) mean 500hPa height fields over the Northern Hemisphere. Initial: 2001/1/4-2001/12/27

  12. W RMSE of ensemble mean forecast in 2002 28 day (2-29) mean 500hPa height fields over the Northern Hemisphere. Initial: 2002/1/3-2002/12/27

  13. Example of verification of probabilistic one-month prediction Event (E) Z500 anomaly is greater than 0 Frequency of occurrences where E was forecast within each of the probability category bins W Forecast frequency distribution Reliability diagram for 7 day mean 500hPa field: day 9-15 2003 Spring (2003/2/27-5/29)

  14. 3) Examples of products Prediction of ・Arctic Oscillation ・Rossby waves along Asia jet ・Intra Seasonal Oscillation in the tropics (Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO))

  15. Example of one-month prediction products(1) Ｚ５００ analysis Ｚ５００ forecast AO! T850 analysis T850 forecast W Ensembleaverage forecastmap ( Initial: 2002/10/24) Northern Hemisphere Z500 and T850 ; 28day mean

  16. Many members predict large Z500 anomaly (above 0.5*standard deviation) Many members predict large Z500 anomaly (below 0.5*standard deviation) W Large anomaly index map Init:2002.10.24 28 day mean ( day:2-29)

  17. Analysis and ensemble average Each member Analysis W 7 day running mean Z500 normalized anomaly over North western Pacific (40N,140E-170E)

  18. Example of one-month prediction products(2) Oct Nov Dec Jan Time sequences of temperature anomalies in Japan(5 day running mean) 2001.10-2002.1 Normalizedtemperature anomalies 2002.1.11-15 W What?

  19. Prediction of the Rossby wave along Asia jet PSI200 analysis 1/12-1/18 PSI200 forecast W Ensembleaverage forecastmap ( Initial: 2002/1/3) PSI200 ; 7day mean (9-15 day forecast range)

  20. Rossby wave guide along Asia jet Dispersion relation of barotropic Rossby wave in U(y) is ω＝Uk-β＊k/K2, here, β＊ ＝ β-∂2U/ ∂y2 , K2 ＝k2+l2. Therefore, total wave number of a stationary Rossby wave is K＝Ks＝（ β＊/U)1/2. Hoskins and Ambrizzi(JAS,1993,1661-) showed that if Ks has maximum at some latitude as figure 1, it works as “Rossby wave guide” Climatological Ks in DJF (shade) and Analyzed stream function anomaly at 200hPa (2002.1.11-15) latitude Schematic figure of Rossby wave guide

  21. Temperature anomalies, and Rossby wave along Asia jet Normalizedtemperature anomalies W Stream function (200hPa) anomalies W Longitude and height cross section of 20N-30N averaged stream function anomaly 2002.1.11-15

  22. Time-longitude cross-section of stream function anomaly (20N-30N) at 200 hPa initial 2002.1.3 (left) analysis (right) ensemble mean forecast

  23. Spread among ensemble members W Spread among ensemble members ( Initial: 2003/10/16) Z500 ; 7day mean (9-15 day ) Predicted stream function (200hPa) anomalies and wave activity flux of two of 26 ensemble member

  24. Example of one-month prediction products(3) 96015 98618 Observed amount of daily precipitation in MAY 2003 97430 91425 What ?? 1 10 20 30 MAY2003

  25. Eastward propagation of MJO 1-5 May 2003 6-10 May 11-15 May 16-20 May Velocity potential (200hPa) OLR Velocity potential (200hPa) in the equatorial region 1 May day 20 May W longitude

  26. Schematics of MJO 3-D structure over the Indian Ocean Rui and Wang(1990)

  27. Prediction of MJO in May 2003 2nd week prediction ( 7 day mean) Observation Velocity potential anomalies (200hPa) Stream function anomalies (200hPa) W 2003/5/3-5/9 Ensemble mean Initial:2003/4/24

  28. Observation 2nd week prediction Velocity potential anomalies (200hPa) Stream function anomalies (200hPa) W 2003/5/10-5/16 Ensemble mean Initial:2003/5/1

  29. 2nd week prediction Observation Velocity potential anomalies (200hPa) Stream function anomalies (200hPa) W 2003/5/17-5/23 Ensemble mean Initial:2003/5/8

  30. Prediction of MJO in Oct. 2003 Init:10/9 2nd week 20 Sep Obs. day CHI200a 10 Oct Fcst W Longitude PSI850a Velocity potential at 200hPa (CHI200) PSI200a

  31. Prediction of MJO in July 1984-1993 OBS FCST 1 84 31 86 92 88 CHI200A in the equatorial region

More Related