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Greg Brinkman Debbie Lew

Western Wind and Solar Integration Study phase 2: Hydro dispatch assumptions. Greg Brinkman Debbie Lew. National Renewable Energy Laboratory Golden, Colorado USA. WWSIS phase 2. Follow-up on phase 1 analysis with focus: Understanding costs of cycling and ramping fossil-fueled units

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Greg Brinkman Debbie Lew

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  1. Western Wind and Solar Integration Study phase 2: Hydro dispatch assumptions Greg Brinkman Debbie Lew National Renewable Energy LaboratoryGolden, Colorado USA

  2. WWSIS phase 2 • Follow-up on phase 1 analysis with focus: • Understanding costs of cycling and ramping fossil-fueled units • Understanding emissions impacts of cycling and ramping fossil-fueled units • Analyzing the cycling and ramping impacts of wind and solar penetration High renewables case No Wind/Solar Phase 1 results

  3. High wind (25% wind, 4.8% PV, 3.2% CSP)

  4. Intermediate (16.5% wind, 9.9% PV, 6.6% CSP)

  5. High solar (8% wind, 15% PV, 10% CSP)

  6. Refined assumptions • Core scenarios • Hydro dispatchability • Reserve categories and requirements • Sensitivities • High hydro dispatchability • Even though we will run hydro sensitivities, it is important to have reasonable core assumptions because these cases will get significant attention by readers

  7. Optimization horizons • Monthly – monthly energy limits are input, PLEXOS optimizes these limits into daily limits • Day ahead – optimize hourly usage within daily limits passed from monthly • RT – model can allow violations of DA schedule for a penalty price • All subject to unit-specific constraints (monthly max/min, ramp rates, dispatchablevs non-dispatchable)

  8. Hydro dispatchability • Hydro defined as “flexible” or “inflexible” based on WECC TEPPC hydro modeling task force work

  9. Hydro dispatchability – range of all units • Grey area includes dispatchable range of all hydro units for each month • Min/max is approximately equal to average ± 15%

  10. Hydro dispatchability – range of PLF units • Grey area includes dispatchable range of all hydro units for each month • Min/max is approximately equal to average ± 20%

  11. Questions? • Greg Brinkman • 303-384-7390 • gregory.brinkman@nrel.gov • Debbie Lew • 303-384-7037 • debra.lew@nrel.gov

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