The Effects Of Climate Change S. Elwynn Taylor Agronomist, Extension Climatologist

1. The Effects Of Climate Change S. Elwynn Taylor Agronomist, Extension Climatologist Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa setaylor@iastate.edu

3. How much wetter than usual was June? • In 1988: How many Window Air Units can we sell?

4. 2014: Are the Hurricanes going to all be in the Pacific Now? Simon

8. http://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/wobbly-polar-vortex-triggers-extreme-cold-air-outbreakhttp://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/wobbly-polar-vortex-triggers-extreme-cold-air-outbreak http://www.climate.gov/news-features/event-tracker/polar-vortex-brings-cold-here-and-there-not-everywhere

9. The Management Question: Is this the “NEW Normal” or is this the “Same Old Same Old” ?

10. Climate,Past & Future “The climate is changing, climate has always changed & will always change. The question is; ‘how much, how fast, how come?’ ” D. M. Gates ‘66

11. Will the “New” Dwarf the “Old.” The Old is still with us. The “New” is, however, very real: & the “Problem” is US (with apologies to Pogo)

12. Do People Change the Earth’s Climate ? Remember: There is a lot more to climate than simply Temperature and Rain.

13. b

16. http://www.greenpeace.org.uk/files/images/forests/amazon/amazon-fires-aug08.jpghttp://www.greenpeace.org.uk/files/images/forests/amazon/amazon-fires-aug08.jpg

17. On the Same Old - - - -

18. (+16 to 19 cents) • 174 9% 158.8 123.4 2004 - 9

21. La Nina : Extremes

22. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/season.JFM.nao.gifhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/season.JFM.nao.gif

23. Final, Revised for: Bulletin of the American MeteorologicalSociety, Vol. 77, No. 2, Feb. 1996, pp 279-292. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/gcps/papers/icc-us.pdf

25. The NEW Corn belt • Remember when it was the price of “Crude” that impacted energy cost?

27. Increased Stream Flow:Increased # of Flood-prone Years 2 4 7 1 3 6 9 8 5 10

29. 19 yr Dry/Wet Tree rings indicate climate cycles. dry Adverse Mild wet

30. Heat & Water Stress & 90 year cycles

31. Tree Rings Roanoke, NC cypress tree. Dennis Blanton, Wm & Mary College, David Stahle, Univ. of Arkansas. U.S. drought starts here.

32. 800 Year Rain (Virginia)

33. Do People Change the Earth’s Climate ? Remember: There is a lot more to climate than simply Temperature and Rain.

34. b

35. Secondary CO2 impacts on climate are a major area of research. It appears that the effect on day-night temperature range may be of high significance

37. Tillage of the SoilvsClearing of the Forest Can Agriculture change from cause to cure? Can a farm be a “good” as a Prairie?

38. Reasons Corn Production is Up 1: Growing corn is profitable 2:

39. http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/servlet/GetNewsImage?path=0702BAD4.gif&width=http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/servlet/GetNewsImage?path=0702BAD4.gif&width=

41. Profit in Ag Know what is going on Manage the Risk

42. Corn Price vs Cost

43. High risk Moderate High