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Improving Weather Forecast Office Performance in the Polygon Warning Era

Improving Weather Forecast Office Performance in the Polygon Warning Era. Ken Cook – SOO ICT NOAA/National Weather Service Office 2142 South Tyler Road Wichita, KS 67209 Phone: (316) 942-8483 Fax: (316) 945-9553 Email: kenneth.cook@noaa.gov. Outline. Polygon (Storm Based) Warnings FY08

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Improving Weather Forecast Office Performance in the Polygon Warning Era

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  1. Improving Weather Forecast Office Performance in the Polygon Warning Era Ken Cook – SOO ICT NOAA/National Weather Service Office 2142 South Tyler Road Wichita, KS 67209 Phone: (316) 942-8483 Fax: (316) 945-9553 Email: kenneth.cook@noaa.gov

  2. Outline • Polygon (Storm Based) Warnings FY08 • Identify Challenges Ahead • Demonstrate Training and Review Program (TARP) at WFO Wichita • Software/Other Deficiencies • Mitigations Developed from the TARP • Results • Recommendations/Conclusions Ken Cook – SOO NWS Wichita, KS (ICT)

  3. Polygon-Based Tornado Warnings Improve ServiceArea Warned is Appropriately Reduced Polygon-Based Warning Area Four Counties Warned Area Removed From Warning In the current system, four full counties are warned. Polygon-Based Tornado Warnings provide much improved service. Source – Eli Jacks, National Program Management Committee

  4. Challenges • Probability of Detection (POD) for Tornadoes 15-20 percentage points less Nationwide (Polygons vs. Counties) • Local POD of Severe Weather Events (1” Hail) about 15% points less • No Comprehensive Training Plan available yet for implementation

  5. Challenges • Lead Time Will Be Lost • Old: 3 separate warnings • New: One warning

  6. 24 April 2006

  7. 24 April 2006 3”Hail City of Wichita

  8. 24 April 2006 • 80-100 Million Dollars in Damage In Sedgwick County • County-Based Paradigm, Warnings Verified • Polygon-Based Paradigm, Largest Hail Not Warned (Bulk of the Damage Area)

  9. Challenges • Local (ICT) POD of Severe Weather Events (1” Hail) • January through April: 15 % Points Less • May through August: Nearly Equal • What changed?

  10. Training and Review Program • A Training and Review Program Created • Identified shortfalls • Developed methods of improvement • Software Used: • ArcGIS 9 • Paint Shop Pro 9 • Microsoft Access • Presentation Software • Datasets Used: • Storm Reports - Storm Prediction Center’s (SPC) web site • Warning Polygon Shapefiles - Iowa State Mesonet web site

  11. Training and Review Program • Findings • Reports that fell outside the warning polygon were the result of • Boxology of warning (>90%) • Majority were gaps between warning polygons • Software limitations Let’s Look at a Sample Review

  12. Software Limitations • LSR Program • Resolution not high enough • WarnGen • Cannot incorporate detail of CWA boundaries • Suggest working out a local agreement with local media and adjacent WFOs • Right clicking county to include in warning results in portions being excluded!! • Rounding of Warning Lat/Lon • Outdated/Poor Shapefile Resolution/Mapping • EAS/NWR/etc… • Not using GPS

  13. Software Limitations • LSR Program • Distance and direction resolution was too coarse • Result – wind report fell out of the polygon • Persons should examine these and make corrections as needed

  14. Software Limitations • Poor Shapefile Resolution; Lat/Lon Rounding • WarnGen polygon coordinates when applied to the map background will appear slightly different

  15. Software Limitations • EAS/NWR • Is this area warned or not? • Polygon - Yes • County - No • Even though we are shifting paradigms, public safety must be highest priority • Re-issue warning

  16. Mitigations • Always be thinking ahead to the next box (1st box very critical). • Leave yourself plenty of room. • Avoid right clicking to include an entire county. • Zoom and edit vertices appropriately. • Avoid gaps between polygons: Zoom!!! • It is a must to have local warnings overlay loaded w/ warngen).

  17. Mitigations • Slightly overlap polygons. • For Bow echoes, replicate linear convection. • Only adjust SVS Polygon when canceling portion of county.

  18. Results • Polygonology has seen remarkable improvement at WFO ICT • POD between the 2 paradigms within a few points • FAR remains ~10 percentage points lower for Polygons

  19. Recommendations/Conclusions • Developing a local training and review program will improve: • Transition to Polygon Warnings • Warning Meteorology and Service • Metrics (GPRA Goals) • Utilize Mitigations to improve polygon warnings • Instructions for the ICT TARP are available upon request or on WFO ICT’s Science and Training Page at: http://204.194.227.45/soo/Training/Polygonology/Polygonology-TARP.htm • Change is certain, be prepared!!! • Thank you – Questions?

  20. Resources • Cook, Kenneth (SOO – ICT), 2006: WFO Wichita Science and Training Intranet Page (http://204.194.227.45/soo/soopage.htm) • Training Materials Also Available • Herzmann, Daryl, 2006: Iowa State University (http://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/current • National Program Management Committee • SPC Storm Reports (http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports) • PANDA (http://panda.crh.noaa.gov)

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