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Public Opinion

Public Opinion. John Hernandez March 23, 2006. What is Public Opinion?. Views held by a significant portion of a population Concerns topics of public interest Demonstrates consensus Influenced by mass media Great interest to policymakers Measured by polls & surveys. Two Flavors of Data.

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Public Opinion

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  1. Public Opinion John Hernandez March 23, 2006

  2. What is Public Opinion? • Views held by a significant portion of a population • Concerns topics of public interest • Demonstrates consensus • Influenced by mass media • Great interest to policymakers • Measured by polls & surveys

  3. Two Flavors of Data • Macro-level • Snapshots, trends & narrative reports • Summary stats on responses • Example: 35% yes, 45% no, 20% don’t know • Micro-level • Numeric data files • Individual survey responses • Subject to further analysis (i.e. cross-tabs) assuming large enough sample

  4. Some Terminology • Population or universe • The target group you want to describe • Example: U.S. voting age population • Sample • Randomly selected (equal chance of being picked) • Not everyone in sample responds • Response rate • Percentage of sample who respond to survey

  5. Some Terminology • Weighting • Adjusting numbers to be more representative • Margin of error • Measures error due to sampling • +/– 3 percentage points is typical for large samples (n=>800) @ 95% level • 95% of the time, the same survey with another sample would yield results within 3 percentage points

  6. Sources of Error • Sampling error • Sample was not chosen at random • Measurement error • Flaws in the instrument and/or implementation • Response bias • Respondents’ answers differ from their true beliefs • Non-response bias • Can yield unrepresentative samples

  7. History of Public Opinion Polls • “Straw” polls, 1820s-1930s • Unrepresentative & self-selected samples • Literary Digest presidential election polls, 1920-1936 • Wrongly predicts Alfred Landon will beat FDR for president • Scientific polling, 1936- • Gallup, Roper & Crossley • Random & representative sampling

  8. History of Public Opinion Polls • Academic research, 1940s- • Paul Lazarsfeld • Bureau of Applied Social Research – Columbia Univ. • National Opinion Research Center (NORC) - Univ. of Chicago • Roper Center – Univ. of Conn. • Survey Research Center – Univ. of Michigan

  9. History of Public Opinion Polls • Modern political polling, 1950s- • Louis Harris & Daniel Yankelovich • Private polls for campaigns, policy preferences & presidential approval • News & media outlets, 1970s- • ABC/Washington Post • CBS/New York Times • NBC/Wall Street Journal • CNN/USA Today

  10. Beyond the United States • Reaction to U.S. foreign policy • International relations • Foreign aid • Globalization • Domestic policies • Immigration • Religious, moral & social values • Environmental & health issues • Political, economic & social development

  11. Global Barometers • Standardized questions for cross-national comparison • Eurobarometer, 1973 • Central & Eastern Eurobarometer, 1991-1998 • Latinobarometer, 1995 • Afrobarometer, 1999 • Asian Barometer, 2001

  12. Major Databases • iPOLL Databank (Roper) • U.S. nationwide polls back to 1935 • Questions, % responses, and select data files • Polling the Nations (ORS) • U.S. and over 80 countries back to 1986 • Questions and % responses • Eagleton Poll Archive (Rutgers) • Quarterly polls for NJ residents back to 1971 • Questions and % responses • Crosstabs with other questions

  13. Bibliographic Tools • Library catalogs • Article indexes & databases • Sociological Abstracts • Worldwide Political Science Abstracts • Int’l Bibliography of the Social Sciences • Lexis-Nexis Statistical • News indexes • Lexis-Nexis Academic • Newsbank • World News Connection

  14. Searching by LC Subject • “Public opinion” • Combine with other headings • Subdivided by countries or regions (views held in) • Public opinion—India • Subheading under other subjects (views about) • War on Terrorism, 2001—Public opinion

  15. Searching by LC Subject • “Foreign public opinion” • Subheading under countries (views about country held elsewhere) • United States—Foreign public opinion • “Attitudes” • Subheading under specific populations (views held by) • African Americans—Attitudes

  16. Searching by Descriptors • Combine with other terms • “public opinion” • “opinion polls” • “political attitudes” • “attitudes”

  17. Searching by Keywords • “opinion” OR “attitudes” OR “views” • “poll” OR “survey” • “favor” OR “support” • “oppose” OR “opposition” • “position” OR “mood” OR “sentiment”

  18. Useful Web Sites • ICPSR (http://www.icpsr.umich.edu) • Odum Institute for Research in Social Science – Univ. North Carolina (http://www.irss.unc.edu/data_archive/catsearch.html) • Scout Report Archive (http://scout.wisc.edu/Archives/index.php) • Data on the Net – UC San Diego (http://odwin.ucsd.edu/idata/) • Data & Statistical Services (http://dss.princeton.edu/) • Princeton Survey Research Center (http://www.wws.princeton.edu/psrc/)

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