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Housing and Economic Outlook

National Association of Local Housing Finance Agencies April 26, 2012. Housing and Economic Outlook. David Crowe Chief Economist. Builder Sentiment Up since September 2011 NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Quarterly Data Message.

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Housing and Economic Outlook

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  1. National Association of Local Housing Finance Agencies April 26, 2012 Housing and Economic Outlook David Crowe Chief Economist

  2. Builder Sentiment Up since September 2011NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index

  3. NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index

  4. Quarterly Data Message

  5. Total Payroll Employment

  6. Unemployment Rate

  7. Total Personal Income Feb ‘12 = 2.6%

  8. Real Gross Domestic Product

  9. Consumer Confidence Index

  10. Single-family Building Permits

  11. Multifamily Building Permits

  12. Underlying Fundamentals

  13. Household Shortfall Demographic Trends Are Positive Number of Households (million households) 1 to 2 million gap Percentage Change

  14. Housing Fundamentals Remain GoodMortgage Rates

  15. House Prices At Long-term Ratio House Price-to-Income Ratio

  16. Markets Are Local

  17. Seriously Delinquent Loans Trending Lower Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure, % of all loans

  18. But Delinquency Inventory Varies by State Foreclosure inventory plus 90-day+ delinquencies month’s supply at annual sales rate Foreclosure inventory plus 90-day+ delinquencies U.S. = 8.4 months

  19. Increase in Employment Greater Than National Average Change in Employment Below U.S. average 0.6% to < 0.9% 0.9% to < 1.3% 1.3% to < 1.8% 1.8% or greater

  20. Increase in Building Permits Greater Than National Average Change in Building permits Below U.S. average 6.7% to < 11.7% 11.7% to < 18.3% 18.3% to < 31.2% 31.2% or greater

  21. Change in House Prices Relative to U.S. Change in House prices Below U.S. average -4.2% to < -2.8% -2.8% to < -1.7% -1.7% to < -0.6% -0.6% and greater

  22. NAHB/First American Improving Markets Index – TheNumber of Markets is Improving

  23. 101 Improving Metropolitan Areas

  24. Improving Markets 101 Improving Metropolitan Areas

  25. Forecast

  26. Real GDP Growth – Hesitated but Improving

  27. Sales Dipped, But Due to RecoverNew and Existing Single-Family Home Sales

  28. Single-Family Starts – Waiting for Job Recovery Trough to Current: Mar 09 = 353,000 Mar 12 = 462,000 +31%

  29. Multifamily Housing Starts Healthy Response from Growth in Renters Trough to Current: 4th Q 09 = 82,000 1st Q 12 = 192,000 134%

  30. Residential Remodeling – Continuous ImprovementOwner-Occupied Improvements Billions 2005 $, SAAR Source: U.S. Census Bureau, NAHB Economic and Housing Forecast.

  31. Less than 45% 45% to 49% 49% to 61% 61% to 70% Greater than 70% Long Road Back to Normal* for Single-Family Housing Starts – Q4 2013 Single-Family Housing Starts Relative to Normal * Normal Production is measured as Single-Family housing starts between Q1 2000 and Q4 2003 * Normal is the average from Q1 2000 to Q4 2003

  32. Questions?Answers: www.housingeconomics.comeyeonhousing.wordpress.com

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