Environmental Scanning: what it is and how to do it

1. Environmental Scanning: what it is and how to do it Welcome to the Webinar We’ll be starting shortly…

2. Environmental Scanning: what it is and how to do it Maree Conway Thinking Futures

3. ….using futures approaches to integrate strategic thinking into strategy development and planning

4. What ES is and why do it • ES and strategy • Getting started with ES • Back to work

6. What’s your definition of environmental scanning?

7. ES is the art of systematically exploring and interpreting the external environment, • to better understand the nature of trends and deep drivers of change • and their likely future impact on your organisation.

8. Environmental Scanning (ES) is the foundation for high quality strategic thinking…

9. Environmental Scanning (ES) is the foundation for high quality strategic thinking… • …that informs the development of futures ready strategy for an organisation.

10. Futures ready strategy is flexible strategy that readies an organisation to respond to the challenges of the future.

11. Quick Survey How many of you have formal scanning systems operational in your organisations?

12. Why a Scanning System? • To strengthen the quality of the thinking that goes into your strategy development • To let you understand what’s coming and what’s changing and what it means for you • To give you enough time to prepare and be proactive • To give you a competitive edge • To move you beyond busy - out of crisis management mode

14. Current strategy processes tend to focus on the plan as the major outcome, rather than a shared understanding of your organisation’s preferred future to inform action today.

16. Making VU 2016: A Statement of Purpose Strategic vision and objectives Current until 2016 • Internal & External Planning Inputs • Ongoing environmental scanning • Educational & societal trends • Government policy drivers • Legislation • University cross-sectoral strategies • Other University Plans (eg OHS, Disability, Staff Equity etc) University Priorities 2008-2010 Outcomes & Strategies to implement Reviewed each year in first half of year Unit Strategic Plans 2008-2010 Faculties, Schools & Service areas Implementation of University Priority strategies University Budget Process Iterative process to align budgets and plans Budget sign-off at end September Quarterly Budget Reviews Reviewed and updated in August/September; finalised following QIRs in November Department Plans Improvement action identified/changes to plans identified SPDP: individual Staff Plans QIR Inputs Organisational Unit QIR Portfolios Faculty Review Outcomes Annual Course Reporting Course Review Subject Evaluation Outcomes AQTF outcomes AUQA Follow up Quality Improvement Reviews (QIRs) Approval of operational plans Review of current year’s performance Held in November each year

17. Think tomorrow is going to be more of today

18. Can’t cope with the unexpected

19. Usually don’t explore the long term future

20. Prefer quantitative over qualitative information

21. Don’t challenge assumptions

22. Downplay or dismiss staff beliefs,hopesandfears about the future

23. While the need for planning has never been greater, the relevance of most of today’s planning systems and tools is increasingly marginal (Fuller, 2003).

24. It may well be that the typical strategic planning exercise now conducted on a regular and formal basis and infused with quantitative data misses the essence of the concept of strategy and what is involved in thinking strategically (Sidorowicz, 2000).

25. A major assumption of the strategic planning literature … is that all of these terms [strategy, planning] necessarily go together. [That is] Strategy formation is a planning process, designed or supported by planners, to plan in order to produce plans” (Mintzberg, 1994).

27. Current strategy processes live in the pragmatic futures realm. • Working within the existing paradigm, making it better, but not challenging it. • We call it ‘strategic planning’.

28. Beyond strategic planning – to strategy development and implementation. • Moving into the progressive futures realm, where we challenge the current paradigm and re-interpret how we do business to meet the challenges of the future.

29. Moving from pragmatic to progressive approaches requires a strong focus on building a high quality strategic thinking capacity in your organisation.

30. We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.

31. ...because what works today will probably not work for those who follow you in the future...

34. If you don’t spend the time to improve the quality of the thinking that goes into your strategic decisions, then you will get superficial, limited and ultimately useless strategy.

36. So how do we get started with environmental scanning?

37. BIG DEEP LONG

38. BIG

39. Take a big picture, systems perspective…our micro-decisions coalesce to create global futures

40. DEEP

41. Our assumptions encase us in the past.

42. We all have blind spots that cause us to miss important information.

43. LONG

44. UNCERTAINTY High Usual Planning Timeframe (3-5 years) The linear future is the one we believe to be true, usually based on untested assumptions Trend Linear Future Low Today TIME Future

45. UNCERTAINTY High Usual Planning Timeframe (3-5 years) Possible Futures Trend Linear Future Low Today TIME Future

46. UNCERTAINTY High Usual Planning Timeframe (3-5 years) Possible Futures Trend Linear Future Low Today TIME Future

48. The Scanning Process

49. The External Environment Social Environment Driving Forces Industry Environment Factors / Trends Issues / Forces Social Technological Economic Ecological Political … Suppliers Organisation Customers Clients Competitors Members of Wider Society Driving Forces Adapted from K. van der Heijden

50. Industry Educational Gaming Learning Organisation Students Online Suppliers Stakeholders Sustainability Engagement Vocational Imperative Funding