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Informative report WG CH – climate WGCH 3 rd meeting, March 12-14 Helsinki

Informative report WG CH – climate WGCH 3 rd meeting, March 12-14 Helsinki. Anahit Hovsepyan. Content. EMS-ECAC September, 2012 Side event on the implementation of Climate Watch System (CWS) in WMO-RA-VI. PRESANORD 2 & 3 => MedCOF SPECS (EU FP7 project).

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Informative report WG CH – climate WGCH 3 rd meeting, March 12-14 Helsinki

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  1. Informative reportWG CH – climate WGCH 3rd meeting, March 12-14 Helsinki AnahitHovsepyan

  2. Content • EMS-ECAC September, 2012 Side event on the implementation of Climate Watch System (CWS) in WMO-RA-VI. • PRESANORD 2 & 3 => MedCOF • SPECS (EU FP7 project)

  3. EMS/ECAM 2012 Side event on the implementation of Climate WatchSystem (CWS) in WMO RA-VI Case study from RCC Network (DWD/Germany) Climate Watch Advice – summer 2012 Results from monitoring for the last four weeks - starting point mid July Results from forecast for the next four weeks

  4. Climate Watch Advice publication 19 July 2012 Climate Watch Advice – first update 31 July 2012

  5. Climate Watch System in Finland • Seasonal forecasts for Finland • Baltic Sea ice winters – where to send the ice breakers? • CWS Finland version 0.0 / 2011 and version 0.2 /2012 Baltic Sea 2010/2011

  6. Recommendations • Monitoring extreme events and providing timely analysis of their extent and intensity is very important for the Early Warning agencies. Monthly to Seasonal forecasts should be also used when it is possible to issue them with an acceptable skill (Example of FMI). • It was also noted that in the absence of sufficient forecast skill of the seasonal forecast, medium range to monthly forecasts can be very helpful in providing good prospects on the evolution and cessation of the extreme events once they are fully established. • Establish a coordination mechanism through, e.g. teleconference or Skype to coordinate with NMHSs climate watch bulletins like the ones produced by RCC-CM during this summer.

  7. Recommendations • There is a potential for using social media to help implementing CWS • Establishment of CWS national focal points at NMHSs. The focal points network will be useful in liaising between RCC-CM on one hand and the NMHSs and its national users on the other hand for the provision of climate watches and collecting user requirements and feedbacks. • The RA-VI WG on Climate and Hydrology with the help of RCC-CM should develop a brief guidance to assist NMHSs in implementing national CWS. This can be built on the Experience of RCC-CM and the lessons learned from the national demonstration projects

  8. PRESANORD/MedCOF • Possibility of establishing the MedCOF was discussed in the TT RCOF meeting held in 2011 during SEECOF-6 Ernesto Rodriguez (AEMET) was proposed as a focal point of the WG • Several rounds of discussions at technical level, e.g. in PRESANORD-2 and PRESANORD-3 (COF for north African countries) in January and September 2012, discussion with WMO climate experts during the Extraordinary Cg • MedCOF in the future could serve as a platform for climate risk management activities over the entire Mediterranean basin • AEMET is willing to coordinate MedCOF related activities, letter with expression of interest to coordinate MedCOF activities was sent to Presidents of RAVI and RAI • AEMET and MF meeting at management level • Furthermore AEMET proposed to host scoping meeting to discuss and agree on technical, organizational, logistic matters related to MedCOF

  9. SPECS EU FP7 project: participants: Spain, Norway, Sweden, UK, France, Germany, Netherlands, Italy, Brazil • Seasonal-to-decadal climate Prediction for the improvement of European Climate Services • research and dissemination activities to deliver a new generation of European climate forecast systems, with improved forecast quality and efficient regionalization tools to produce reliable, local climate information at seasonal-to-decadal time scales, and provide an enhanced communication protocol and services

  10. SPECS stakeholders • impact of SPECS consists in the provision of improved seasonal-to-decadal (s2d) climate forecast systems to relevant operational platforms, which include: • the European global producing centres (GPCs) of climate forecasts, • Regional Climate Outlook Fora (RCOFs)and • WMO Lead Centre for Long-Range Forecasts Multi-Model Ensemble (LC-LRFMME)

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