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Robert David Steele <bear@oss> NISA 15 Nov 02

Information Peacekeeping & The Future of Intelligence The United Nations, Smart Mobs, & the Seven Tribes. Robert David Steele <bear@oss.net> NISA 15 Nov 02. Religions & Clans. National. NGO & Media. Military. Academic. Law Enforcement. Business. Abstract #1: Seven Tribes.

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Robert David Steele <bear@oss> NISA 15 Nov 02

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  1. Information Peacekeeping & The Future of IntelligenceThe United Nations, Smart Mobs, & the Seven Tribes Robert David Steele <bear@oss.net> NISA 15 Nov 02

  2. Religions & Clans National NGO & Media Military Academic Law Enforcement Business Abstract #1: Seven Tribes

  3. Generic to All Tribes Open Source Collection Multi-media processing Analytic toolkits Analytic tradecraft Operations security Defensive counterintelligence Leadership skills Training & culture skills Unique to Some Tribes National clandestine & covert collection, offensive CI Military targeting, mobility Police arrest & interrogation Business fiscal accountability Media attention-getting skills NGO humanitarian values Religious faith-based insights Ethnic blood-based insights Abstract #2: ISO Standards

  4. Abstract #3: Multi-Lateral Sharing 80% of Global Intelligence Will Be Via: • Shared Collection--Open, Human, Technical • Shared Processing--Data Entry, Translation • Shared Analysis--Multi-cultural, indigenous 20% of National Intelligence Will Be Via: • Unilateral or bi-lateral secret collection • Unilateral or bi-lateral secret analysis

  5. Abstract #4: Public Intelligence • Intelligence as mixed public-private good • Must be taught in all schools at all levels • Public intelligence will drive public policy • Greatest impact will be on total national budgets--allocations among the instruments of national power (less on military, more on diplomacy, intelligence, public health, etc.) • Art of the long view will re-emerge.

  6. Abstract #5: UNODIN & IP • Will take 10-25 years • UN DPI is a one-way road with 77 lanes • UN in denial on all aspects of intelligence • Goals: to change how Nations spend money and how UN does business

  7. State of the Tribes Today • National 50% • Military 40% • Business 30% • Academic 30% • Law Enforcement 20% • NGO-Media 20% • Religious 20% We have much to do.

  8. SINGLE-CULTURE SINGLE-ORGANIZATION EQUITIES TOP-DOWN COMMAND & CONTROL OLD LEADERS DECIDE SECRET SOURCES & METHODS OBSCURE DETAIL TIME IMPACT SHORT TIME IMPACT LONG OBVIOUS DETAIL OPEN SOURCES & METHODS PEOPLE DECIDE NEW BOTTOM-UP INFORMATION-SHARING MULTI-CULTURAL & TRANS-NATIONAL EQUITIES Bottom-Up and Peer-to-Peer

  9. New Measures of Merit • Open Source Collection • Multi-Media Processing • Analytic Toolkits • Analytic Tradecraft • Defensive Security • Leadership • Training • Culture

  10. Sharing the Burden • Open Source Collection, Translation, Digitization • Distributed Processing • LINUX/OS as new standard for all tribes • XML Geo and open API as mandated standards • Generic analyst toolkit • Share leaders, training • Create global culture

  11. Finished Intelligence and Reporting Revision Tracking and Realtime Group Review Desktop Publishing and Word Processing Production of Graphics, Videos and Online Briefings A Structured Argument Analysis Notetaking and Organizing Ideas Collaborative Work Interactive Search and Retrieval of Data Graphic and Map-Based Visualization of Data Modeling and Simulations B C Clustering and Linking of Related Data Statistical Analysis to Reveal Anomalies Detection of Changing Trends Detection of Alert Situations Conversion of Paper Documents to Digital Form Automated Foreign Language Translation Processing Images, Video, Audio, Signal Data Automated Extraction of Data Elements From Text and Images Standardizing and Converting Data Formats Open Literature Non-Text Data Restricted Information Processing Desktop:Generic Analytic Functionalities

  12. OLD Policy Over Intelligence Unilateral Mostly Secret Technical Emphasis Collection Emphasis One-language filter Mistakes hidden Short-term thinking NEW Intelligence Over Policy Multilateral Mostly Public Human Emphasis Analysis Emphasis Multi-lingual filters Mistakes acknowledged Long-term thinking New Paradigm (1 of 2)

  13. NATIONAL One leader, 3 deputies Secret Collection Open Collection All-Source Analysis Unite the tribes Pool resources Serve the people GLOBAL Multi-lateral Councils Collection Processing Analysis Unite the tribes Regional Centers Serve the people New Paradigm (2 of 2)

  14. Regional Intelligence Center Deputy for Counterintelligence Japan Deputy for Covert Action Thailand

  15. Collective Individual IntelligenceHarnessing Distributed Citizen Intelligence

  16. Change in Time Focus • 7th Generation Thinking • Public Health • Bacteria, Preventive Medicine • Cultures of Violence • Education & Mental Health • Water • Food • Energy • Accountability of Leaders Over the Longer Term

  17. Information Peacekeeping #1Changing What We Spend Money On • Public intelligence can change public spending priorities • Less on military, more on everything else • Global intelligence can create global security forces and funds for sustaining Earth and Peace

  18. Information Peacekeeping #2Changing When & How We Intervene • Public warning can change public policy • More Prevention • More Peacekeeping • More Education • More Long-Term Aid • Less Corruption • Less Censorship We have a sacred duty. “Inconvenient Warning” & “Warning Fatigue” Are Obstacles.

  19. Information Peacekeeping #3Changing Who Does the Thinking • Public, not elites, must be the final judge of global security values • Public intelligence will enable public understanding/action • Berto Jongman’s map is Reference A--we must all support him.

  20. Religions & Clans National NGO & Media Military Academic Law Enforcement Business Information Peacekeeping #4Changing Who Makes a Difference & How

  21. Information Peacekeeping #5Changing How the World Views Intelligence • Weekly report • Distance learning • Virtual library • Expert Forum • Shared directory • Shared calendar • Shared budget • Shared “plot” (map)

  22. Information Peacekeeping #6Changing the Strategic Focus • Connectivity everywhere • Content is digitized • Coordination of standards and investments • C4 Security across all seven tribes--public safety at same level as safety of secrets

  23. Conclusion • The new craft of intelligence is the best hope for world peace through a world brain. • A United Nations Open Decision Information Network (UNODIN) is a possibility. • We work for the public. Only by educating the public, creating Smart Nations, can secret and open intelligence endeavors hope to succeed. • Millions more will die before we get it right. • There is no time to waste--we must start now.

  24. Headlines, Books, & Conferences UN INTELLIGENCE: Does Not Exist, Will Not Exist, Until Secretary General Makes Intelligence the Second Half of the Planned Reform of the Department of Public Information

  25. Information Peacekeeping

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