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OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE: EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW

OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE: EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW. Robert David Steele President, OSS Inc. <bear@oss.net>. Coalition. Overview of Open Sources, Software, and Services. Operations. Overview. Conclusions. Intro. Analysis. Cell. CM. Int. Overview. Src. SW. Svcs. PRESENTATION PLAN.

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OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE: EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW

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  1. OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE:EXECUTIVE OVERVIEW Robert David Steele President, OSS Inc. <bear@oss.net>

  2. Coalition Overview of Open Sources, Software, and Services Operations Overview Conclusions Intro Analysis Cell CM Int Overview Src SW Svcs PRESENTATION PLAN

  3. DEFINITIONS • DATA: raw report, image or broadcast • INFORMATION: collated data of generic interest and usually widely disseminated • INTELLIGENCE: concisely tailored answer reflecting a deliberate process of discovery, discrimination, distillation, and delivery of data precisely suited to need

  4. TIMELINE NEXT SEVEN YEARS: A Very Hard Road LAST SEVEN YEARS: OPEN SOURCE SOLUTIONS Inc. (4000 trained) Society of Competitive Intelligence Professionals (6000 members)Community Open Source Program Office (USA) Eighteen governments doing one thing or another WWII AND COLD WAR: Special Librarians Association (14,000 members) External Research & Analysis Funds Lloyd’s and Jane’s BBC & FBIS Churchill adept at correspondence LONG AGO: “Legal travelers”

  5. OSINT AND THE IC “The Intelligence Community has to get used to the fact that it no longer controls most of the information.” The Honorable Richard Kerr Deputy Director of Central Intelligence (USA)

  6. From Open World Open sources Open software Open services From Closed World Requirements analysis Collection Management Source Validation Source Fusion Compelling Presentation OSINT DEFINED

  7. WHAT OSINT IS NOT I “…nothing more than a collection of news clippings”. “…the Internet.” “…a substitute for spies and satellites.”

  8. SIGINT:Dedicated collectors, processors, exploiters IMINT:Dedicated collectors, processors, exploiters ALL-SOURCE ANALYST HUMINT:Dedicated collectors, processors, exploiters MASINT:Dedicated collectors, processors, exploiters OSINT:??? WHAT’S MISSING?

  9. THE ALL-SOURCE SOLUTION Broadcast Monitoring Subject-Matter Experts HUMINT SIGINT IMINT MASINT Commercial Geospacial Targeting Support OSINT Classified Collection All-Source Analysis Answers

  10. NEW INTELLIGENCE GAP INFORMATION Available Information GAP BETWEEN WHAT YOU CAN KNOW AND WHAT YOU CAN USE Actionable Intelligence TIME

  11. INFORMATION ARCHIPELAGO Business Information Information Brokers & Private Investigators Intelligence Mass & Niche Media Schools & Universities Defense Government

  12. PHYSICAL STEALTH, PRECISION TARGETING NATURAL STEALTH, RANDOM TARGETING GUERRILLAWAR HIGH TECH BRUTES (MIC / HIC) LOW TECH BRUTES (LIC) MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS POWER BASE KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY ECONOMICWAR TERRORISM HIGH TECH SEERS (C3I WAR) LOW TECH SEERS (JIHAD) CYBER - STEALTH, DATABASE TARGETING IDEO - STEALTH, MASS TARGETING CULTURALWAR MORE COMPLEX THREAT

  13. FAILING OVERALL OBVIOUS MILITARY WE DO WELL ENOUGH CRIME AND TERROR WE DO BADLY A-/B+ C-/D+ CIVILIAN CYBERSPACE WE HAVE DECADES TO GO IDEOLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT WE DON’T DO AT ALL SIQ D-/F+

  14. LEVELS OF ANALYSIS Over time and space Channels & Borders Of strategic value STRATEGIC Integrated Application Military Sustainability Geographic Location Civil Allies Quantities & Distribution Internally available for use Volatility of sectors OPERATIONAL Selection of Time and Place Military Availability Geographic Resources Civil Stability Training & Maintenance Mobility implications Cohesion & Effectiveness TACTICAL Application of Finite Resources Military Reliability Geographic Terrain Civil Psychology Military Systems One by One Climate Manipulation Civil Power, Transport, Communications, & Finance TECHNICAL Isolated Capabilities Military Lethality Geographic Atmosphere Civil Infrastructure

  15. FAILING IN DETAIL F- STRATEGIC:What to Build Military Sustainability Geographic Location Civil Allies D- OPERATIONAL:When to Fight Military Availability Geographic Resources Civil Stability C- TACTICAL: What to Use Military Reliability Geographic Terrain Civil Psychology B- TECHNICAL:How to Use It Military Lethality Geographic Atmosphere Civil Infrastructure

  16. MIXED REPORTS • Allen Dulles (DCI): 80% • Gordon Oehler (D/NPC): 80% • Ward Elcock (DG/CSIS): 80% • Joe Markowitz (D/COSPO): 40%

  17. COSTS OF SECRECY • CLIENT ACCESS: too much, too late, too secret--doesn’t get due attention • TRANSACTION COSTS: 10-100X OSINT • OPPORTUNITY COSTS: classification of system deficiencies gives original contractors a lifetime system monopoly • FUNCTIONAL COSTS: non-interoperability, operational disconnects

  18. PURPOSES OF SECRECY “Everybody who’s a real practitioner, and I’m sure you’re not all naïve in this regard, realizes that there are two uses to which security classification is put: the legitimate desire to protect secrets, and protection of bureaucratic turf. As a practitioner of the real world, it’s about 90 bureaucratic turf; 10 legitimate secrets as far as I’m concerned.” Rodney B. McDaniel Executive Secretary, National Security Council Senior Director, (White House) Crisis Management Center

  19. VALUATION METRICS I • TIMING: Is it “good enough” NOW • CONTEXT: Is it “good enough” over-all, that is, does it provide a robust contextual understanding or is it a “tid-bit” in isolation? • CONTENT: Is it “good enough” to improve the decision at hand? Can I share it?

  20. VALUATION METRICS II • RETURN ON EXPOSURE: Does this information, openly available, attract other information that is equally useful? (10X) • INCLUSIVENESS: Does this information, openly available, reach those who have a “need to know” that would not otherwise have been included in distribution? (20%)

  21. OSINT AND REALITY I “If it is 85% accurate, on time, and I can share it, this is a lot more useful to me than a compendium of Top Secret Codeword material that is too much, too late, and needs a safe and three security officers to move it around the battlefield.” U.S. Navy Wing Commander Leader of First Flight Over Baghdad Speaking at TIG-92, Naval War College

  22. OSINT AND REALITY II • Post-Cold War political-military issues tend to arise in lower Tier (per PDD-35) nations where U.S. classified capabilities are least applicable or largely unavailable. • Warning of these largely Third World crises has not required classified collection. • Approach and resolution has required increased reliance on international organizations and non-traditional coalition partners with whom information must be shared and who are not “cleared” for sensitive sources & methods.

  23. THE BURUNDI EXERCISE • COMMISSION ON INTELLIGENCE (USA) • ONE MAN, ONE ROLODEX, ONE DAY • Flag/CEO POL-MIL Briefs (Oxford Analytica) • Journalists on the Ground (LEXIS-NEXIS) • World-class academics (Inst. Sci. Info.) • 1:100,000 combat charts (Soviets via Eastview) • Tribal OOB and historical summary (Jane’s) • 1:50,000 combat imagery (SPOT Image)

  24. OPEN SOURCE MARKETPLACE SOURCES SOFTWARE SERVICES Current Awareness Internet Tools Online Search & Retrieval (e.g. Individual Inc.) (e.g. NetOwl, Copernicus) (e.g. NERAC, Burwell Enterprises) Current Contents Data Entry Tools Media Monitoring (e.g. ISI CC Online) (e.g. Vista, BBN, SRA) (e.g. FBIS via NTIS, BBC) Directories of Experts Data Retrieval Tools Document Retrieval (e.g. Gale Research, TELTECH) (e.g. RetrievalWare, Calspan) (e.g. ISI Genuine Document) Conference Proceedings Automated Abstracting Human Abstracting (e.g. British Library, CISTI) (e.g. NetOwl, DR-LINK) (e.g. NFAIS Members) Commercial Online Sources Automated Translation Telephone Surveys (e.g. LN, DIALOG, STN, ORBIT) (e.g. SYSTRAN, SRA NTIS-JV) (e.g. Risa Sacks Associates) Risk Assessment Reports Data Mining & Visualization Private Investigations (e.g. Forecast, Political Risk) (e.g. i2, MEMEX, Visible Decisions) (e.g. Cognos, Pinkertons, Parvus) Maps & Charts Desktop Publishing & Market Research (e.g. East View Publications) Communications Tools (e.g. SIS, Fuld, Kirk Tyson) Commercial Imagery Electronic Security Tools Strategic Forecasting (e.g. SPOT, Radarsat, Autometric) (e.g. SSI, PGP, IBM Cryptolopes) (e.g. Oxford Analytica)

  25. CURRENT AWARENESS BASICS • DOW JONES INTERACTIVE (Media, BBC) • DIALOG (Periodicals, Books, Conferences) • BRITISH LIBRARY (Conference Papers) • World News Connection (FBIS) • COPERNICUS (Internet Profiles) • LEXIS-NEXIS (Legal/Criminal/Personality)

  26. GEOSPACIAL SHORTFALLS AFRICA ASIA & PACIFIC EUROPE & MED WESTERN HEMISPHERE Algeria Bangladesh Greece Argentina Angola China Turkey Bolivia Djibouti Indonesia Brazil Ethiopia Kazakhstan Colombia Ghana Kyrgystan Ecuador Kenya Malaysia Grenada Liberia Myanmar Jamaica Madagascar New Caledonia Mexico Mozambique Papua New Guinea Paraguay Namibia Russia Peru South Africa Sri Lanka Suriname Sudan Viet-Nam Uraguay Uganda 4 Key Island Groups Venezuela For each of the above countries, less than 25% available in 1:50,000 form, generally old data.

  27. MAPS & CHARTS Formerly classified Soviet maps Some 1:50, global 1:100 coverage Contour lines you can hide in…. Digital and printed, very low cost Topographic, Geological, Nautical Gazetteers, Indexes, Translations They got the cable car right…. < www.cartographic.com >

  28. COMMERCIAL IMAGERY 10 meter imagery is 1:50,000 level and can provide contour lines. Synoptic coverage and two-day revisit available globally on 24 hours notice. Meets critical needs for creating maps, precision targeting, and mission rehearsal. <www.spot.com>

  29. SOFTWARE FUNCTIONALITIES • Monitor, alert • Search, browse, gist • Cluster, weight, summarize • Translate • Index, extract, stuff • Query, view, structure • Visualize, catalogue • Facilitate, inspire

  30. DATA VISUALIZATION Analysts Notebook -- Link Analysis -- <www.i2inc.com>

  31. DATA EXPLOITATION SEARCHING True Total Content Access Flexible Retrieval Dynamic Updating Significantly Reduced Storage In-Built Security RETRIEVAL: Boolean Synonym Sound-Ex Garbled Searching EXPLOITATION : Ranking Clustering Feedback Analysis <www.memex.com>

  32. DATA-ORIENTED SERVICES • Online Searchers • Source-centric/each system unique • Subject-matter competence/learning curve • Foreign language competence/full access • Document Retrieval • Copyright Compliance • Digitization

  33. HUMAN-ORIENTED SERVICES • Human Collection Specialists • Telephone Surveys • Private Investigations • Market Research • Human Processing Specialists • Commercial Imagery, Maps, Visualization • Data Warehouses, Multi-Source Processing • Human Citation Analysis: World Mind Map

  34. INFORMATION BROKERS Highly recommended “Local knowledge” Indexed by location, subject-matter, and foreign language skill www.burwellinc.com

  35. GEOSPACIAL VISUALIZATION 1M 10M 20M 2M 30M 5M 1M 2M 5M 10M 8-100M 30M Ikonos KVR-1000 IRS-1C/D in 3D SPOT Image RADARSAT LANDSAT

  36. KOBAYASHI Y 87 MASTRAGO A 63 TILAK BV 92 CITATION ANALYSIS

  37. OSINT ISSUE AREAS • Operational Security • Understand requirement in all-source context • Conceal/protect client identity and interest • Copyright Compliance • Get used to it • Foreign Language Coverage • Source Validation • OSINT assures authority, currency, confidence

  38. OSINT RULES OF THE GAME • 80% of what you need is not online • 50% of that has not been published at all • 60% of what you need is not in English • 90% of the maps you need do not exist • but commercial imagery can address overnight • 80% of the information is in private sector • must leverage distributed private knowledge

  39. INTERNET REALITY I (BAD) • COSPO (USA) Survey: roughly 1% of Internet is real content, roughly 50 great sites, 500 good sites--the rest is pornography and opinion • Internet is a cream puff in comparison to the kind of rich content/value added represented by commercial online services with editors/filters • MCIA/Other Experience: Internet devours analysts--they get lost or they get addicted, either way their productivity is cut in half

  40. INTERNET REALITY II (GOOD) • Internet is exquisite as a collaborative work environment, and for information sharing • Internet has its uses (see OSINT HANDBOOK) • Indications & Warning (Tiananmen, Coup vs Gorby) • Cultural Context (Bosnia, Islam, Indians in Mexico) • Basic Research (card catalogues, lists, web sites) • Science & Technology Collection (surprisingly good) • Spotting & Assessment (trolling for potential agents) • Internet will explode over time--early days yet

  41. OSINT IS A PROCESS • DISCOVERY--Know Who Knows • Just enough from just the right mix of sources • DISCRIMINATION--Know What’s What • Rapid source evaluation and data validation • DISTILLATION--Know What’s Hot • Answer the right question, in the right way • DELIVERY--Know Who’s Who • It’s not delivered until right person understands

  42. INTEGRATED OSINT CONCEPT Internet Stream Q A Commercial Online Feeds Commercial Maps & Images DIRECT ACCESS: OSS-SRA TOOLKIT WITH TAILORED SOURCE ACCESS Offline Stream (“Gray Literature”) PRODUCTION TOOLKIT PLUS OSS EXPERT ANALYSTS MEDIATED ACCESS: OSS EXPERTS WITH PROPRIETARY SOURCE METADATABASE Human Experts “On Demand” PROCESSING TOOLKIT PLUS OSS EXPERT ANALYSTS CLIENT FEEDBACK LOOP OSS INTEGRATED ONE-STOP SHOPPING PROCESS Call Center -- Multi-Level Security -- Umbrella for Unified Billing

  43. COLLECTION MANAGEMENT I • TIP-OFF • Wires, Jane’s help more than they know • TARGETING/CONSERVATION • Narrow the field for clandestine/covert assets • CONTEXT/VALIDATION • Ideal for double-checking human assets/story • COVER • Protects classified sources & methods

  44. COLLECTION MANAGEMENT II “Do not send a spy where a schoolboy can go.” “The problem with spies is they only know secrets.” ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS IMINT HUMINT SIGINT MASINT OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE OPEN SOURCE INFORMATION

  45. OLD “LINEAR” PARADIGM Customer Customer Analyst Analyst Collector Collector Source Source CM III/ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS I NEW “DIAMOND” PARADIGM ACME OF SKILL IN 21ST CENTURY: Putting Customer with a Question in Touch with Source Able to Create New Tailored Knowledge in Real Time

  46. ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS II • All-Source Analyst’s Role Must Change • Manage Network of Overt Sources • Manage Resources to Fund Overt Sources • Manage Classified Collection in Context • Manage Client’s Incoming Open Sources • Manage Client’s Needs for Open Intelligence • Myopic Introverts Need Not Apply….

  47. ALL-SOURCE ANALYSIS III Over time and space Channels & Borders Of strategic value STRATEGIC Integrated Application Military Sustainability Geographic Location Civil Allies Quantities & Distribution Internally available for use Volatility of sectors OPERATIONAL Selection of Time and Place Military Availability Geographic Resources Civil Stability Training & Maintenance Mobility implications Cohesion & Effectiveness TACTICAL Application of Finite Resources Military Reliability Geographic Terrain Civil Psychology Military Systems One by One Climate Manipulation Civil Power, Transport, Communications, & Finance TECHNICAL Isolated Capabilities Military Lethality Geographic Atmosphere Civil Infrastructure

  48. THREAT ANALYSIS • LIBYAN TANK EXAMPLE (1992) • Technical Level (Lethality): VERY HIGH • Tactical Level (Reliability): LOW • Operational Level (Availability): MEDIUM • Strategic Level (Sustainability): LOW • We can no longer afford worst-case systems acquisition (and such systems are largely useless against 3 of 4 modern day threats)

  49. STRATEGIC GENERALIZATIONS • Port utility Half • Cross-country mobility Zip • Bridge loading limitations 30T • Intervisibility <900M • Aviation temperature averages HOT • Naval gunfire challenges 5” dies • Language requirements Heavy

  50. COALITION OPERATIONS I “… the concept of UN intelligence promises to turn traditional principles on their heads. Intelligence will have to be based on information that is collected primarily by overt means, that is by methods that do not threaten the target state or group and do not compromise the integrity or impartiality of the UN.” Hugh Smith as cited by Sir David Ramsbotham

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