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Application Areas

Real-time Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) prospects for following impact of lower atmosphere on temporal changes of neutral density (specification and forecast) Tim Fuller-Rowell, Rashid Akmaev, Fei Wu, Houjun Wang. Application Areas. Midnight temperature and density maxima

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Application Areas

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  1. Real-timeWhole Atmosphere Model (WAM)prospects for following impact of lower atmosphere on temporal changes of neutral density (specification and forecast)Tim Fuller-Rowell, Rashid Akmaev, Fei Wu, Houjun Wang NADIR MURI

  2. Application Areas • Midnight temperature and density maxima • Tidal temporal variability • Density variability in the sub-orbital and re-entry region • Global mean demsity response to the lower atmosphere forcing NADIR MURI

  3. MTM/MDM: Large scale temperature and density structure Akmaev et al. 2009, 2010 NADIR MURI

  4. Electrodynamic comparison JRO vs WAM-CTIPe Chau et al. • CTIPe simulations with WAM winds (lower panel) appear to reproduce the main features in the observed vertical plasma drift (upper panel) during a SSW, including the stronger upward drift early in the morning and reversal to downward in the afternoon NADIR MURI Fuller-Rowell et al. 2011

  5. Electrodynamic Response – contribution from changes in amplitude and phase of migrating semi-diurnal (SW2) 2010 SW2 phase change appears to be responsible for a large part of the change in local time of electrodynamics NADIR MURI

  6. Source of variability in re-entry region:neutral density and zonal wind profile every hour WAM 1-day Larsen (2002) observed mid and low latitude zonal winds WAM hourly profiles zonal wind neutral density NADIR MURI

  7. CHAMP satellite neutral density: SSW or geomagnetic activity? CHAMP neutral density response 2009 SSW SSW SSW Dayside ~16.5 LT Ap Ap NADIR MURI

  8. WAM neutral density response to changing tides during SSW in upper thermosphere (300 to 400 km altitude) • global mean increase by ~ 5% from 15th to 23rd • change in phase of “diurnal” variation 15th 23rd NADIR MURI

  9. Prospects for a real-time WAM to follow temporal changes in the re-entry region at NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center • Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM) is based on the Global Forecast System (GFS) US NWS operational weather forecasting model • WAM can be run with the operational Grid-point Statistic Interpolation (GSI) NCEP data assimilation system so is able to follow the response of the upper atmosphere to real lower atmosphere dynamics (e.g., sudden stratospheric warmings, severe weather events, etc.) • WDAS (WAM/GSI) has a forecast capability of several days • Possible to extend GSI into the lower thermosphere using additional data sets to improve penetration of tides into the lower thermosphere • WAM is being coupled to an Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (IPE) module (WAM + IPE = IDEA) to provide ion-neutral heating rates • IDEA is scheduled to be transitioned into NOAA operations in FY16 • System will be fully supported by NOAA operations NADIR MURI

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