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HPC Products and Services

HPC Products and Services. Michael Eckert michael.eckert@noaa.gov www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov. HPC QPF Products. Deterministic QPF Graphics Web & AWIPS Probabilistic QPF Graphics Web only Discussions Web & AWIPS Verification Web only. QPF Area of Responsibility.

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HPC Products and Services

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  1. HPC Products and Services Michael Eckert michael.eckert@noaa.gov www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov

  2. HPC QPF Products • Deterministic QPF Graphics • Web & AWIPS • Probabilistic QPF Graphics • Web only • Discussions • Web & AWIPS • Verification • Web only

  3. QPF Area of Responsibility Runoff into Columbia River Runoff into Rio Grande River

  4. Deterministic QPFHPC QPF = Most likely areal-averaged QPF • 6 hour QPF through Day 3.5 • Day 1 & 2 – 06, 10, 18 & 22z • Day 3 – 10 & 22z • 24 hour QPF through Day 3 • Day 1 & 2 – 06, 10, 18 & 22z • Day 3 – 10 & 22z • 24 hour QPF Days 4 & 5 • 00z & 12z • 6-h disaggregation via SREF • Day 1-5 QPF total accumulation • 00z & 12z • Fuel for RFC hydrologic models & NDFD

  5. Deterministic QPF • Provided as: • Graphics • Web • AWIPS • GRIB format • Web only • ftp.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov • GIS format • Web only • KML for Google Maps

  6. QPF in Google Earth

  7. Probabilistic QPFwww.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pqpf_6hr/conus_hpc_pqpf_6hr.php • Experimental • Binormal probability distribution (density) function (PDF) • HPC QPF is mode • Variance is ensemble: • GFS • NAM • SREF • ECMWF • Training available via CLC (keyword “PQPF”)

  8. QPF Verificationwww.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/hpcverif.shtml • Threat/Bias • Improvement over models • Record threat scores • Monthly • Yearly • Seasonal • Specific Values Verified

  9. HPC Excessive Rainfall • Categorical probability of Rainfall Exceeding RFC FFG at a point • Day 1, Day 2, and Day 3 products RFC 5km FFG SLGT = 5-10% MOD = 10-15% HI = >15% • Day 1 updated: • 03, 06, 15, 18 UTC • OR as Necessary! • Day 2 & 3 updated: 06 and 18 UTC • 12Planet notification w/mod or high risk Rainfall http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml

  10. SPC Mesoscale Discussion(0-6 hour discussion guidance) QUASI STATIONARY MCS REMAINS ELONGATED IN AN E-W FASHION ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/MIDDLE TN. ALTHOUGH LLJ MAY RELAX A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON…THIS STRENGTHENING SHOULD RESULT IN CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG WRN/SRN FRINGE OF MCS WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIRMASS...PWAT APPROACHING 2 INCHES. NET RESULT APPEARS TO BE A CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/MIDDLE TN. www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/md

  11. HPC Collaboration12Planet • PLEASE feel free to chat with us  • 12Planet generally for routine collaboration/questions • Whenever a moderate or high Excessive Rainfall Outlook issued, HPC to send 12Planet chat message to affected WFOs • Several combination of players • HPC – WFO • HPC – RFC • HPC – SPC • HPC - TPC • HPC IDs • hpc_LEAD • hpc_QPF2 • hpc_MEDR • hpc_bawx • hpc_sfc • hpc_wwd • hpc_MDLDIAG • hpc_ak

  12. When to have have a conference call? Suggested Guidelines - More efficient collaborating over the phone than on 12 Planet - Significant uncertainty exists for the event - The event exhibits potential to meet watch/warning criteria - The event will potentially impact two or more adjacent WFOs - The WFO requesting the call has coordinated this request with the adjacent WFOs - The call can occur at a mutually agreeable time between HPC and the WFOs HPC CollaborationPhone PLEASE feel free to call us: - Can be reached by telephone (301)763-8201 - Available for multi-office conference calls 12

  13. Wide array of products and services Product suite continuously evolving PQPF KML PLEASE feel free to chat or call Summary 13

  14. Questions?

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