Main-streaming climate variability and change in flood management

1. Main-streaming climate variability and change in flood management Avinash Tyagi Director, Climate and Water World Meteorological Organization 4th International Symposium on Flood Defence Toronto, 8th May 2008

2. Confirms impacts we are already witnessing Impacts dependent upon both climate change and adaptive capacity Emphasizes the importance of adaptation Recommends a portfolio approach New IPCC Findings

3. Precipitation form, timing and quantity Air temperature Sea level rise Manifested through….

6. Settling on floodplains has enormous advantages www.gaestehaus-loreley.de SPIEGEL ONLINE 2004 and at the same time poses great risks

7. Climate change will intensify the hydrologic cycle… changes in the averages/ trends changes in variability (magnitude, severity, duration)

8. Hazards • Floods • Droughts • Flow regime changes

9. Floods and Droughts “A warmer climate, with its increased climate variability, will increase the risk of both floods and droughts” IPCC AR4, 2007 • Difficulties in creating scenarios of changes in rainfall as applied to « flood-producing » events • Influence of geology • Anthropogenic changes may be more pronounced • Droughts have many definitions and the risks have climatic and non-climatic factors influencing it • Critically dependant on water management practices

10. Flood damages are increasing…

11. Population increase Absolute safety from flooding is a myth Securing livelihoods Challenges of Flood Management

12. Climate variability and change www.awitness.org Changes in decision making processes cumulus.geol.iastate.edu/ Ecosystem Conservation Challenges of Flood Management

13. Adaptations • Future vulnerability depends on development pathways, • Extensive adaptation is required to reduce vulnerability, • Adaptations will be necessary to address impacts, • A portfolio of adaptation options have to be studied.

14. Water Resources Management and Flood Management IWRM Integrated flood management

15. Urban Flood Hydrologic Cycle RAIN URBANISED LAND SURFACE EVAPORATION DETENTION RETENTION REGIONAL RETENTION DETENTION EVAPORATION PIPE or OPEN DRAIN WATER QUALITY CONTROL WATER SUPPLY OCEAN SEWERAGE TREATMENT PLANT WASTE WATER SEWER SOIL RIVER SYSTEM GROUND WATER

16. Urban floods • integrated land use planning to achieve multiple uses for urban land, • capture and storage of roof runoff in order to reduce demands on the potable water supply, • ponding of stormwater runoff for use in non-potable water supply, • use of infiltration facilities to reduce direct storm runoff and increase low flows in rivers.

17. Integrated Flood Management PRINCIPLES Risk Management Water Cycle as a whole Multi-hazard approach River basin as a planning unit Inter-disciplinary Stakeholders participation

18. Integrated Flood Management: Objectives • Sustainable development: balancing development • needs and flood risks • Maximising benefits: ensure livelihood security and • poverty alleviation thereby reducing vulnerability • Minimising loss of life • Environmental preservation

19. Requirements of IFM Clear and objective policies with a multidisciplinary approach supported with appropriate • Legislation and regulations; • Institutional structures for proper coordination and appropriate linkages; • Economic instruments; • Enabling participatory processes; and • Information management and exchange mechanisms.

20. Difficulties in Adaptations • Lack of basic information • Insufficient monitoring and observation systems • Settlements in vulnerable areas • Appropriate political, technological and institutional framework • Lack of capacity • Low income SOURCE: IPCC Working Group II Report, 2007

21. Mission of APFM “ to support countries in the integrated management of floods within the overall framework of integrated water resources management.”

22. Flood Management Policy Series • Instrumental in bridging disciplinary gaps for IFM • Expert-group based • Peer-reviewed • Specific target groups • Policy Makers • Flood Managers • Experts in respective special fields • Target group adapted language and format

23. Flood forecasting, warning and response system a Critical Chain of Events and Actions Decision Support Data Communication Forecast Notification Coordination Actions Hydrological Observations Appropriate Individuals & Groups Data transmission Flood Forecasting Preparedness, Response and Decisions Decisions Evacuation and Rescue operations

24. adaptive management …….. Flood Regulations Basin Flood Planning Flood Proofing and Building Codes Flood risk assessment

25. Conclusions… Use resilient policies: Integrated Flood Management Beginning today based on imperfect climate information is far better than no action at all. Use today’s available science to discuss possible future scenarios that factor the possibility that the future MAY NOT look like the past. “Long-range planning does not deal with future decisions, but with the future of present decisions.” Peter Drucker

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