Shaping London – integrated strategy development

1. Dealing with London's growth from a transport perspectiveMichèle Dix: Managing Director, TfL Planning15th March 2010

2. Shaping London – integrated strategy development Transport Spatial planning Economic development

3. Strategic Overview Development of the Mayor’s Transport Strategy (MTS)

4. London’s population is growing

5. Distribution of London’s population growth by 2031 By 2031, London’s population is expected to have grown by a further 1.3 million

6. Employment growth

7. Distribution of London’s employment growth by 2031 A further 750,000 jobs are forecast 27 million trips per day are forecast by 2031

8. Investing for Recovery – a new deal for London • Key findings and recommendations: • London is the most productive UK region (2007/8 tax export was £14-19bn) • 31% of the capital’s jobs are found in just 2% of its land area (in CAZ/West End) – demonstrating the need of ensuring excellent radial links (through Crossrail, Tube and National Rail). • Government needs to ensure future of Crossrail and Tube investments for sake of London’s economic health • London risks losing £1billion a year in productivity if these investments are delayed • Efficient regional government, committed to making further savings • Investments are also vital to addressing economic and social disparities

9. London depends on excellent transport connectivity • Air and rail hub : 75% of all rail journeys start or end in London and the South East • London Heathrow – world’s busiest airport 67 million passengers per annum • Rail and road connections to UK and continental Europe • Freight connections remain vital • Port access (Thamesport, Felixstowe, Dover, South Coast and Port of London)

10. Mayor’s Transport Strategy Goals Increased trips (from 2008 base): 30% Public Transport 15% total

11. Current travel demand in London Mode share

12. Mode Share ‘London’s transport system should excel among those of global cities, providing access to opportunities for all its people and enterprises, achieving the highest environmental standards and leading the world in its approach to tackling urban transport challenges of the 21st century.’ Mode share Draft MTS seeks an increase in the mode share of walking, cycling and public transport

13. Highway congestion Currently, congestion is mostly found in central and inner London, and some town centres. 2006 • Reasons for increased congestion: • Reduced resilience • Ageing assets and continuing utilities works • Population and employment growth • Increase in road freight With only reference case investment (Tube upgrades, Crossrail, Thameslink and HLOS), it can be seen that congestion is widespread in central and Inner London, and extends to Outer London town centres and large areas of south London 2031 (Reference case)

14. LU crowding 2006 Currently, there is severe crowding on routes into central London

15. National Rail Crowding 2006 • There Is crowding on all radial national rail lines into central London in the morning peak. • North London Line also crowded

16. Shortfalls between committed investments and future requirements 2031 Tube crowding reference case 5.3 – 4.6 2031 Highway congestion reference case

17. Policy approach Better coordination and integration of planning More transport capacity Managing demand for transport

18. Enhancements to London’s transport infrastructure This figure sets out funded and unfunded improvements featured in the strategy

19. Integration of development and transport

20. Integration of development and transport Local and strategic development control processes should seek to ensure a number of conditions are satisfied, including: • High trip generating developments to be located in areas of high public transport accessibility, connectivity and capacity • The design and layout of sites maximise access on foot, cycle and to public transport facilities • Maximum opportunities for sustainable freight distribution where possible • Land for transport use is safeguarded in line with London Plan policy and Supplementary Planning Guidance • Planning contributions are sought for transport improvements, where appropriate

21. Case Study – Canary Wharf 1981 : only 3,000 workers remain in the Docklands area 1987 : Docklands Light Railway opens, by 1995 working pop. approx. 13,000 Crossrail set to open 2017, enabling further schemes such as Wood Wharf working pop. to reach close to 200,000 1999 : Jubilee Line Extension opens, by 2006 working pop. reaches 93,000 – densities provide demand for JLE

22. Canary Wharf 1987-2020 1981 : only 3,000 workers remain in the Docklands area 1987 : Docklands Light Railway opens, by 1995 working pop. approx. 13,000 1999 : Jubilee Line Extension opens, by 2006 working pop. reaches 93,000 2017: Crossrail set to open, enabling further schemes such as Wood Wharf working pop. to reach close to 200,000

23. Case Study – Vauxhall Nine Elms Northern Line extension Battersea Power Station

24. Regeneration • Maximising impact of existing/new infrastructure • Improving links to new rail nodes and interchanges from the surrounding area • Maximising legacy benefits of the Olympics • Coordinated planning between TfL, HCA and others re. new development

25. Proposals to enhance London’s transport system

26. Proposals to enhance London’s transport system TfL and DfT investment plans 2017-31 + + =

27. Committed investments • TfL Business Plan 2009/10-2017/8 overview: • Crossrail • DLR enhancements • Transforming the Tube programme • London Overground network extensions, frequency improvements • Improved interchanges • Highways schemes on Transport for London Road Network –e.g. Tottenham Hale gyratory removal • Cycle Hire and Superhighways • Funding for local borough schemes • Road safety, community safety and maintenance

28. Committed TfL Business Plan investments to 2017/8 - overview

29. Transforming the Tube • Key deliverables to increase capacity, reliability and reduce journey times: • Over 230 new train sets: • 53 – Circle and Hammersmith and City • 80 – District Line • 58 – Metropolitan Line • 47 – Victoria Line • Upgraded signalling and new control centres for most lines by 2016 • Station improvements – 131 completed so far! • By 2020, the Tube will have an extra 30 per cent capacity and quicker journeys • Longer term proposals • Further improvements and extensions to the network Northern line Upgrade 2 • Extension of the Northern line to Battersea • Potential southern extension to the Bakerloo line will be reviewed further

30. Crossrail • Brings up to £36bn (estimated) of benefits to the wider UK economy (over 60 years) through reduced • journey times, job growth and increased productivity benefits – more than twice the estimated cost of £15.9bn. • Connects Docklands, the City, West End, and West London with key regeneration areas • Europe’s biggest civil engineering project with new tunnelling, new interchanges and upgrades to existing lines and stations • Up to 14,000 people will be employed on the project at the peak of construction between 2013 and 2015.

31. Docklands Light Railway • Since 1987 the DLR has opened up the docklands and east London • Demand for DLR is forecast to grow from 68 million to 83 million trips per annum by 2012. • 55 new carriages, expanding to three car operations, will give a 50% capacity increase by June 2010. • Extension to Stratford International -remains on target for July 2010. • Woolwich Arsenal extension opened early 2009 - delivered on time and within budget, whilst providing a direct link to city airport

32. Orbital connectivity: strategic interchanges

33. London Underground Capacity Increases Estimates of increased capacity at specific locations on the network Metropolitan Finchley Road EB 32% Jubilee St. John’s Wood EB 25% Northern Charing Cross & City branches Euston SB 20% Victoria Highbury & Islington SB 21% Upgrade II 17% Bakerloo Maida Vale SB 57% Piccadilly King’s Cross WB 24% Piccadilly Barons Court EB 24% Hammersmith & City Liverpool Street WB 38% Hammersmith & City Hammersmith EB 176% Metropolitan Liverpool Street WB 19% District Earl’s Court EB 26% District Tower Hill WB 22% Circle Gloucester Road EB 38% Circle Tower Hill WB 38% Bakerloo Waterloo NB 57% Jubilee London Bridge WB 43% NorthernCharing Cross branch Kennington NB 20% Northern City branch Kennington NB 20% Victoria Vauxhall NB 21% Waterloo & City Waterloo-Bank 25% Upgrade II 17% Upgrade II 33% These figures estimate the peak capacity increase at certain points on each line compared to the service in 2005/06, and reflect the capability delivered by the upgrades and current service patterns assumptions

34. National Rail, Crossrail, Thameslink, Overground, DLR and Tramlink • Crossrail • London and the South East rail links and services, including Thameslink – large increases in cross-London capacity (~20 tph through the core) • Longer term proposals: • Mayor supports High Speed 2 (HS2) • Chelsea-Hackney line/Crossrail 2 • Station capacity enhancements

35. Committed National Rail investments to 2014 - overview

36. Managing the road network • Smoothing traffic flow, including investment in intelligent traffic control systems (such as ‘SCOOT’) • Minimising the impact of planned interventions on the road network, including lane rental charges • Minimising disruption from unplanned events • Technology development • Maintaining road network assets for safety and efficiency • Development of the road network – East Thames river crossings

37. Providing new links to support development: East Thames river crossings

38. Freight • Freight traffic predicted to grow as London’s population and economic activity increase. • Predicted 30% rise in Light Goods Vehicles • Working with industry through: • Freight Operator Recognition Scheme (FORS) • Delivery and Servicing Plans • Construction Logistics Plans • Modal shift to rail, water and bicycle through provision of infrastructure • Mayoral leadership (e.g. Responsible procurement) • Promotion of cleaner vehicles

39. London’s airports • Airport capacity – the Mayor recognises adequate airport runway capacity is critical to the competitive position of London, but opposes any further increases in capacity at Heathrow. • MTS seeks to improve access to London’s airports for passengers and staff by public transport. • Improved freight access to the airport (e.g. promotion of DSPs) • Air Quality proposals • Noise reduction proposals

40. Managing demand

41. Walking, cycling and public transport use road space more efficiently

42. Improved information for passengers

43. Better Streets: Practical Steps Measures to improve the street environment will help regenerate areas and make walking and cycling more attractive alternative so encouraging healthier lifestyles

44. Outcomes

45. Outcomes (overview) • Public transport capacity and connectivity improvements • Less crowding • Less congestion • Reduced Carbon Dioxide emissions from transport • Improved air quality • Fewer KSI road casualties • Improved accessibility to jobs • Improved accessibility of the transport network • But if we want to achieve more, we have to think differently about influencing people’s behaviour.

46. Underground crowding (2031 with MTS) • Crowding largely alleviated, however, forecasts suggest it persists on Piccadilly and Victoria lines. • Current route of Chelsea-Hackney line (Crossrail 2) as modelled doesn’t effectively address this crowding. • Other options may provide greater crowding relief

47. NR Crowding (2031 with MTS) With MTS proposals, crowding persists on a some corridors, Major congestion relief is provided on southern approaches to central London, and the West Anglia lines.

48. Benefits from implementing measures beyond those in the TfL Business Plan and HLOS

49. Improved accessibility to employment Accessibility: MTS proposes an increase of more than 50% in the average number of jobs that a London resident can reach within 45 minutes minimum public transport journey time

50. Improved accessibility to employment Additional journey time is often required in order to take physically accessible routes. From most areas journeys to central London take up to an hour longer. The figure shows the public transport journey relative time differential to/from Bank by accessible route, in comparison to quickest route. Ensuring the transport system is accessible from the start to the end of the journey will enable more ‘spontaneous’ travel, delivering social and economic benefits – widening the labour pool and enhancing economic independence.