Water and Climate Change: Managing Risks and Building Resilience

1. World Meteorological OrganizationWorking together in weather, climate and water WMO Climate Change Adaptation The Pivotal Role of Water AVINASH TYAGI Director, Water and Climate, WMO Coordinator: UN-WATER Thematic Priority Area Water and Climate Change WATER DAY 2 June 2010, Bonn, Germany Global Framework for Climate Services WMO: Climate and Water www.wmo.int

2. Weather, Climate and Water Severe Storms, Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes and Typhoons), Storm Surges, Floods, Droughts, Cold Spells, Heat Waves, forest fires, locust swarms, etc… Global Framework for Climate Services

3. Effects on the hydrological cycle(IPCC 2001) • Precipitations • Evaporation • Soil moisture • Groundwater • Water Demand • Glaciers • Streamflow • Floods • Low flows Global Framework for Climate Services

4. PotentialWater Resources Impacts • Water Supplies • Water Demands • Water Quality • Sea water level • Flood Management • Drought management • Waste water treatment • Irrigation and Drainage • Hydropower • Operations Global Framework for Climate Services

5. Water, Energy and Climate Change Future water management activities must carefully consider strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions Global Framework for Climate Services

6. Rainfall Variability and GDP Bubble Size = GDP per capita (Blue = low interannual variability of rainfall) Developing countries face more challenging climate conditions Monthly Rainfall Variability Wealthy nations share a small window of favorable climate (low variability; moderate rainfall) Mean Annual Rainfall (cm) Global Framework for Climate Services Brown and Lall, 2006

7. GCM Climate scenarios Statistical downscaling / RCM Temperature E + ET Precipitation Water Demand Development scenarios HydrologicalModelling Adaptation Runoff GW recharge Storage Water Resources Climate Change Adaptation: the process Socio-economic Factors Global Framework for Climate Services

8. Water Resources Management Entry points for Adaptations • Planning new investments, or for capacity expansion (reservoirs, irrigation systems, levees, water supply, wastewater treatment) • Operation & regulation of existing systems: accommodating new uses or conditions (e.g. ecology, climate change, population growth) • Maintenance and major rehabilitation of existing systems (e.g. dams, barrages, irrigation systems, canals, pumps, etc.) • Modifications in processes and demands (water conservation, pricing, regulation, legislation) • Introduce new efficient technologies (desalting, biotechnology, drip irrigation, wastewater reuse, recycling, solar energy ) Global Framework for Climate Services

9. Adaptations in Water Resources Management Guiding Principles • Mainstreaming climate change adaptation within broader development context • Strengthening water governance and integration of land anndwat management • Improving and sharing of knowledge and information on adaptation measures and invest in monitoring • Building long-term resilience through stronger institutions, invest in infrastructure and well functioning ecosystems • Invest in cost effective and adaptive water management as well as technology transfer • Leverage additional funds through national budgetary and innovative funding mechanisms Global Framework for Climate Services

10. Basic Messages • All drivers of hydrological cycle are affected by global warming – climate change (CC) • Water is the principal medium through which most people will experience CC • Many tools, coping options designed for Climate Variability (CV), form the foundations for CC adaptation • Socioeconomic factors, land uses, conflicts and population dynamics will dominate future conditions and modes of adaptation • Huge upfront investments to avoid highly uncertain CC risks have to be dealt with in a well-organized risk management framework Global Framework for Climate Services

11. Basic Messages • Keystone for adaptation and adaptive management is a greatly expanded and improved hydromet system for monitoring, modeling and forecasting • Climate information, GCMs and prediction services need to be dramatically improved • Improving governance is key to CC adaptation • Therefore, CC adaptation must be cast within a broader IWRM framework, and not viewed as an independently pursued analytical paradigm Global Framework for Climate Services

12. WORKING TOGETHERTowards SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT Thank you! Global Framework for Climate Services

13. World Climate Conference-3Better climate information for a better future Geneva, Switzerland31 August–4 September 2009 Global Framework for Climate Services

14. GFCS Goal Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change at all levels, through development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice.” Global Framework for Climate Services

15. GFCS: Objectives • Provide a cooperative framework in which all nations, International organizations, scientists and sectors will work together to meet the needs of users; • Enable users to benefit from improved climate information and prediction; • Mobilize climate science globally to advance the skills of seasonal-to-interannual and multi-decadal climate predictions to generate and provide future climate information on an operational basis; • Foster mechanisms for sharing new advances in science and information through a cooperative global infrastructure. Global Framework for Climate Services

16. Transport Government Energy Transport Transport Energy Water Energy Agriculture Ecosystem Sectoral Users Users Agriculture Ecosystem Agriculture Ecosystem Water Tourism Health Health Private sector Tourism Tourism Health Climate User Interface Programme User Interface Programme Climate Services Information System Climate Services Information System Observations Climate Research & Modeling and Prediction Research & Modeling and Prediction Components of Global Framework for Climate Services Capacity Building Global Framework for Climate Services

17. Climate information flow from producers to end-users Scientific and technical analysis and prediction Social and economic actions Global Analysis and Prediction Centres Global Applications Centres International User Organizations Regional User Organizations Regional Analysis and Prediction Centres Regional Applications Centres National Meteorological Centres Sector support institutions Water, Agriculture, Health….. National and local users Global Framework for Climate Services

18. Global Framework for Climate Services