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U.S. Grain and Oilseed Situation and Outlook

U.S. Grain and Oilseed Situation and Outlook. Nick Piggott North Carolina State University South Carolina Ag Expo February 8th, 2001. Southern Region Soybean Production. Projected Supply/Demand for U.S. Soybeans 2000-01. Record Soybean Demand in 2000-01. Record crush of 1.6 billion bushels

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U.S. Grain and Oilseed Situation and Outlook

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  1. U.S. Grain and Oilseed Situation and Outlook Nick Piggott North Carolina State University South Carolina Ag Expo February 8th, 2001

  2. Southern Region Soybean Production

  3. Projected Supply/Demand for U.S. Soybeans 2000-01

  4. Record Soybean Demand in 2000-01 • Record crush of 1.6 billion bushels • 1.8 %  in meal use from 99/00 • 2.7 %  domestically from 99/00 • 1.7 %  exports from 99/00 • 2.4 %  in oil use from 99/00 • 2.4 %  domestically from 99/00 • 1.7 %  exports from 99/00 • Record exports of almost 1 billion bushels • improved exports to China offsetting declines from EU • Still expecting to add 30 million bushels to carry-out in 00-01.

  5. World Soybean Trade

  6. U.S. Soybean Price Prospects • Market currently fairly bearish with latest production and ending stocks estimate more than expected • Exports for 00-01 above last year at the same time

  7. U.S. Soybean Price Prospects….. • How many acres will the U.S. plant? Best guess is another 2.4 mill. acres • 75.1 acres @ 38.4 bu./ acre = 2,883 mill. bushel (113 more than 00-01) • Sth American crop bigger in 00-01 with world ending stocks for 00-01 slightly less than 99/00 (at 23.18 MMT)

  8. U.S. Soybean Price Prospects….. • Futures now trading below harvest low with S-Mar 01 = $4.70 and S-Nov 01 = $4.85 • Forward offers for new crop below loan rate thus no incentive to forward contract (SC new crop bids $4.41) • Look for concerns of production shortfalls in Sth America and BSE in EU to stimulate a price rally into planting • limited opportunities that won’t be sustained for long • need firm price targets in mind and be prepared to act • Without any production shortfalls in U.S or Sth America: U.S farm price could be in $4.40 range for 2001-02

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