The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction

1. The Asian-Australian Monsoon System: Recent Evolution, Current Status and Prediction Update prepared by Climate Prediction Center / NCEP June 12, 2017 For more information, visit:http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Global_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons/Asian_Monsoons.shtml

2. Outline • Recent Rainfall and Current Conditions • Monsoon Prediction • Summary • Climatology

3. Precip Patterns: Last 90 Days For the past 90 days, weak-to-large below normal rainfall deficits remain in general over parts of Afghanistan, southcentral India, south Korea, Japan, Papa New Guinea, southeastern China, and large parts of Australia. During same period, rainfall excess is noted over northeastern India, Bangladesh, and many southeast Asian countries in the South China Sea area.

4. Precip Patterns: Last 30 Days For the past 30 days, overall, near normal rainfall situation is noted over India and Australia, but the longer term rainfall deficits remain still remain over Australia. Deficits also remain over southern and eastern China, south Korea, and Japan.

5. Precip Patterns: Last 7 Days In this past week, the observed rainfall amounts has been above normal over west central India, eastern China and over the Philippines. Even though it has only been twelve days since the start of the the summer SW monsoon season (JJAS) over India, the India Met. Dept, (IMD) is reporting that the monsoon is overall about 18% above normal across India. The monsoon has now advanced over much of south India.

6. Atmospheric Circulation Generally these CDAS maps are two days behind. But sometimes, as it is today, due to technical issues, these maps are further behind.

7. Rainfall Time Seriesover 5x5 lat-lon boxes The time series of precipitation over the various regions is pretty much consistent with the spatial maps shown earlier.

8. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Accumulated Precip. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

9. NCEP/GFS Model Forecasts Bias-Corrected Precip. Anom. for Week 1 & Week 2 Week-1 Week-2

10. Summary For the past 90 days, weak-to-large below normal rainfall deficits remain in general over parts of Afghanistan, southcentral India, south Korea, Japan, Papa New Guinea, southeastern China, and large parts of Australia. During same period, rainfall excess is noted over northeastern India, Bangladesh, and many southeast Asian countries in the South China Sea area. For the past 30 days, overall, near normal rainfall situation is noted over India and Australia, but the longer term rainfall deficits remain still remain over Australia. Deficits also remain over southern and eastern China, south Korea, and Japan. In this past week, the observed rainfall amounts has been above normal over west central India, eastern China and over the Philippines. Even though it has only been twelve days since the start of the summer SW monsoon season (JJAS) over India, the India Met. Dept, (IMD) is reporting that the monsoon is overall about 18% above normal across India. The monsoon has now advanced over much of south India. In the next couple of weeks the NCEP GFS model is predicting a mixed pattern of strong above and below normal rainfall patterns across the monsoon region with below normal rainfall over much of south India. As of this writing, tropical storm Merbok in the South China sea is threatening southeastern China.

11. Demise of the Asian Monsoon

12. Onset of the Australian Monsoon

13. Climatology