Global Climate Crisis: Who Says What & Why

1. Global Climate Crisis:Who Says What & Why Dr. LaRae M. Donnellan, APR, CPRC Professor of Public Relations Florida A&M University (Photo from www.epa.gov/climatechange)

2. Climate Crisis Information • Part One • How do we get information about global climate crisis • Who believes the global climate crisis is real & what do they say • Part Two • Who doesn’t believe it is real & what do they say

3. Getting Info from the Media • Agenda-Setting Theory: The media tell us what to think about, not necessarily how to think about it. • Gatekeepers of newsworthiness (TIPCUP) • Balance • Professionals vs. amateurs • Echo chamber

4. How Scientists Communicate • Scientific process • Verifiable results • Refereed journals • Admit mistakes • Probability • > 99% = “virtually certain” • > 95% = “extremely likely” • > 90% = “very likely” • > 66% = “likely”

5. Who Says the GC Crisis is Real? • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) • NASA/Goddard Institute for Space Science, National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration, National Center for Atmospheric Research, American Meteorological Society, Environmental Protection Agency, Union of Concerned Scientists, National Weather Service, World Glacier Monitoring Service, etc. • National academies of science from at least 45 countries, including the Vatican • Environmental, civic & religious organizations • U.S. military • People whose lives have already been disrupted by climate change Dr. James Hansen, NOAA climate scientist, climateprogress.org/2008/06/page/2/

6. Would You Take This Flight? • Climate change, caused primarily by humans, is “very likely” (more than 90% probability of occurring).

7. What Are Scientists Saying? • CO2 – 390 ppm & rising • Rising temperatures (Source: NOAA; http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/)

8. What Are Scientists Saying? • Arctic sea ice declining • 2007 accelerated thaw • Northwest & Northeast Passages open • Replacing reflective ice with dark ocean • Ice sheets shrinking • 2003-2008, Greenland lost more than trillion tons – 150-250 cubic kilometers – of ice • 2002-2006, Antarctic lost about 152 cubic kilometers of ice • Source of fresh water • Relatively warmer water (From http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/)

9. What Are Scientists Saying? • Oceans more acidic • More so than anytime in the last 800,000 years • Shellfish can’t make thick-enough shells (think DDT) • 2009: Pacific oyster industry reported 80% mortality for oyster larvae • Coral reefs dying off; barrier against storms • Oceans warmer • Can’t absorb as much CO2; have been a natural “sink” • Low oxygen hard for fish • Promote stronger hurricanes & cyclones (From: http://www.duke.edu/web/nicholas/bio217/jrc25/PA180142.jpg) (From http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/ & Scientific American)

10. What Are Scientists Saying? • Ocean levels rising • Rose 17 cm (6.7 inches) in the last century • Rate doubled in last decade • Maldives, the lowest-lying nation on the planet, fears for its survival • Retreating glaciers • Himalayas, Alps, Andes & great American West snowpack melting • Rising temperatures; less water; more drying of forests, crops • Expanding tropics • 2°+ north & south since 1980 (From dailymail.co.uk) (From domino.lancs.ac.uk)

11. What Are Scientists Saying? • More drought • “New normal” for Australia • Powerful brushfires • Forests drying • Trees less hardy • Longer fire season • ½ of U.S. Forest Service budget = extinguishing fires • Western forests responsible for 20-40% of U.S. carbon sequestration; may become source, not sink • Pests thriving • Mountain pine beetle • Mosquito & dengue fever (From worldweatherpost.com) (From www.msnbcmsn.com/ id/15625626/) (From http://www.sos-arsenic.net/images/mosquit1.jpg)

12. What Are Scientists Saying? • Hurricanes & cyclones • Stronger & stranger • Last ½ decade: 1st tropical storm to hit Spain; 1st January tropical cyclone; 2008 – major storm in 5 different months; 2008 Tropical Storm Fay cross Florida 4 times • Heat waves • 1995 in Chicago, nearly 500 died • 2003 in France, 30,000 died • Rainfall & floods • Total rainfall up 7% • Comes as downpours (TOP RIGHT: From examiner.com) (TOP LEFT: http://scrapetv.com/News/News%20Pages/usa/Images/hurricane-katrina.jpg) (From msnbc.com)

13. What Are Scientists Saying? • Crop loss • Global per capita production of grain peaked in 1980s • Reductions in wheat, corn & barley yields of about 40 million tons/year • Using corn for ethanol – food riots in 37 countries • Methane & nitrous oxide • Agriculture is a major source • Tourism loss • Psychological despair (From http://trendsupdates.com/abundance-no-more-global-food-crisis-as-seen-through-high-food-cost/) (From http://www.reuters.com/article/ idUSTRE65B1XE20100613?type=domesticNews)

14. Why Are People Still Flying? • Why is the “1 in 10 chance of survival” message so compelling? • Not framed that way • Ill-informed vs. vested interest vs. sociopath?

15. Framing Theory • We are told not only what to think about but also how to think about it. • Frames are mental (physical) filters that help us make sense of incoming information. They involve scenarios and metaphors. • 98% of what we “know” is rooted in our unconscious. • George Lakoff, “Don’t Think of an Elephant” • “Gun control” or “gun safety” • “Tax revolt” or “tax relief”

16. PR, not Science • Doubt about the climate crisis has been spread by an organized PR campaign, largely financed by the oil and coal industries • James Hoggan & Richard Littlemore, “Climate Cover-Up: The Crusade to Deny Global Warming” • Arguments based on PR strategies & tactics, not science • But should the GCC be real, then: • Humans did not cause it • It’s too expensive to fix • There’s nothing we can do about it

17. Have They Been Successful? (From http://www.gallup.com/poll/126560/Americans-Global-Warming-Concerns-Continue-Drop.aspx?version)

18. Partisan Divisions: Pew Polls • College-educated partisans: Are humans responsible (2008 Pew poll)? • Democrats: 75% yes • Republicans: 19% yes • Why a difference? • How they consume media & which media they consume. • Democrats: Better informed about the science. • Republicans: Better informed about the controversy. Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 4, 2009, among 1,500 adults reached on cell phones and landlines.

19. Remember the “Tobacco Debate”? • PR’s role • Edward Bernays hired by American Tobacco Company – promote smoking. Targeted women. • Tactic: • Have young women smoke while marching in the “Torches of Liberty Brigade” Easter Parade in 1929 in Manhattan • Frame: • Not about health/science … but about women’s equality/freedom (to smoke Lucky Strike cigarettes in public) (From gammablog.com/2003/20/03/torches-of-freedom/)

20. Remember the “Tobacco Debate”? • 1950s – Tobacco Industry Research Committee/ Council for Tobacco Research • Funded research that cast doubt on health risks of smoking • Strategies: • Reposition debate: Not about health but about free choice. • Deny wrongdoing: The link between tobacco and cancer was never “proved” beyond reasonable doubt. • Excuse or minimize the problem: Lots of things cause cancer. • Attack the character of your opponent: Anyone who tried to educate or legislate against tobacco was simply trying to create a “nanny state.”

21. Who Helped Big Tobacco? • Philip Morris hired PR giant Burson-Marsteller • Strategy: Mobilize smokers to “fight for their rights” • Tactic: Created the National Smokers Alliance • “Astroturf,” not “grassroots” • Philip Morris hired PR giant APCO Worldwide in 1993 • Strategy: Attack scientific validity of links between cancer and secondhand smoke • Tactic: Proposed TASSC (The Advancement of Sound Science Coalition) • Be a credible source for reporters • Encourage public to question science • Mobilize support • Develop “information”

22. Using Tobacco Techniques to “Sell” Climate Change Confusion • American Petroleum Institute (API) created the “Global Climate Science Communication Action Plan” • Goal: Not to promote an understanding of science but to spread uncertainty • Spokespersons challenged climate scientists • Linked messages to “sound science” • Victory? • When the public accepted “uncertainties” as “conventional wisdom”

23. Selling ICE • PR firm helped WFA, NCA & EEI create “Information Council for the Environment” (ICE) in 1991. • Purposes: “To reposition global warming as a theory (not fact)” and to “supply alternative facts to support the suggestion that global warming will be good.” • Strategies • Went to small U.S. markets heavily dependent on coal-fired electricity. • Focus group messages: • “Some say the Earth is warming. Some also said the Earth was flat.” • “If the Earth is getting warmer, why is the frost line moving south?”

24. Techniques to Create Doubt • Using think tanks • Exxon invested more than $20 million in think tanks that questioned whether climate change was sound science • UCF & Oklahoma State researchers found: between 1972-2005, 92.2% of books promoting skepticism were published/written by conservative think tanks • Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI) – CEI commercial • Denial by the pound • Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine • Founded by chemist Arthur Robinson, with six listed faculty (2 sons, 2 dead) • Produces survivalist/creationist home school curricula; no ongoing climate research • “Oregon Petition” • More than 34,000 signatures (not all scientists) • Misled as coming from the National Academy of Sciences

25. Framing the Discussion • Frank Luntz, Republican pollster and adviser • 2002 “Straight Talk” memo for Republican candidates • Promote uncertainty: “The scientific debate remains open” • Be committed to “sound science” • Say “energy exploration,” not “oil drilling” • “Climate change” = less frightening than “global warming”

26. Need More Proof? • DeSmogBlog.com • Dr. John Abraham, University of St. Thomas , Minnesota (http://www.stthomas.edu/engineering/jpabraham/) • “Climate Cover-Up”