Report on Warsaw COP19

1. Kyoto and Beyond Report on Warsaw COP19 The 12th installment in an ongoing series on multilateral agreements related to climate change www.isciences.com June 30, 2014

2. Kyoto and Beyond is a series of presentations on the evolving international climate treaty process that began with the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 1992. Introduction • Report on Warsaw is a summary of the negotiations that transpired at COP19, the 19th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UNFCCC and the 9th session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol, which was held Nov. 11 – 22, 2013 in Warsaw, Poland. Other presentations in the Kyoto and Beyond series include*: • 2008 Kyoto and Beyond • 2009 Kyoto and Beyond, Update • 2010 Report on Copenhagen COP15 • 2010 Road to Cancun COP16 • 2011 Report on Cancun COP16 • 2011 Road to Durban COP17 • 2012 Report on Durban COP17 • 2012 Road to Rio+20 • 2012 Report on Rio+20 • 2012 Road to Doha COP18 • 2013 Report on Doha COP18 * Available at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html Report on Warsaw (ISCIENCES, LLC)

3. Context Contents • Outcomes • Climate Science • Looking Ahead This presentation includes hyperlinks to additional information indicated by underlined text. Report on Warsaw (ISCIENCES, LLC)

4. In 1992 the UNFCCC established the goal of reducing global greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) to “prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” Context: Climate Policy Since then the global policy framework has continued to evolve. 1997 The Kyoto Protocol created an international legal framework within the UNFCCC for emissions reduction targets during the period 2008-2012 for developed countries. 2009The Copenhagen Accord, conceived outside of the UNFCCC process, called for voluntary emissions reduction targets achieved by 2020, and endorsed a cap on global temperature increase of 2⁰C. The UNFCCC officially “took note” of the Accord. 2010The Cancun Agreementsacknowledged within the UNFCCC framework the objective of keeping the average global temperature rise below 2⁰C. 2011 UNFCCC negotiators at COP17 in Durban, South Africa agreed to extend the Kyoto Protocol until 2020 and called for a new agreement “applicable to all” to be created by 2015 and enter into force in 2020. Report on Warsaw (ISCIENCES, LLC)

5. As the UNFCCC’s annual climate conference opened in Warsaw, the world remained on a business-as-usual greenhouse gas emissions pathway. Context: Policy vs Reality Current 2020 pledges, binding and voluntary, by developed and developing nations contribute towards meeting the target of limiting global average temperature increase to 2⁰C. However, UNEP’s Emissions Gap Report 2013* concluded that current pledges are insufficient. There is a significant “emissions gap” – between emissions levels expected in 2020 if pledges are met, and levels needed by 2020 to meet the target. As nations fail to act or fail to act aggressively, the cost of bridging the gap rises. “The challenge we face is neither a technical nor policy one – it is political: the current pace of action is simply insufficient. The technologies to reduce emission levels to a level consistent with the 2° C target are available and we know which policies we can use to deploy them. However, the political will to do so remains weak. This lack of political will has a price: we will have to undertake steeper and more costly actions to potentially bridge the emissions gap by 2020.” – Achim Steiner, UNEP Executive Director, The Emissions Gap Report 2013-Executive Summary, Nov 2013 * UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2013. GAP_EmissionsGapReport 2013_high-res.pdf Report on Warsaw (ISCIENCES, LLC)

6. Confidence in Poland’s leadership as host of a global climate conference was challenged by a confluence of decisions that appeared to contradict the UNFCCC’s mission, and by Poland’s environmental record. Context: Warsaw as Host A coal conference. The World Coal Association held a two-day conference in Warsaw parallel to the COP19 climate talks. A buy-out? Corporate sponsorship of COP19 included major Polish fossil fuel companies. A dismissal. COP19 President, Marcin Korolec, was dismissed as Poland’s Minister of the Environment for “foot-dragging on…exploration for shale gas and other fossil fuels.”* Marcin Korolec (Credit: Piotr Drabikvia Wikimedia Commons) Poland relies on dirty coal for over 90 percent of its electricity production, has blocked climate action over fears of economic impact, and failed to nationalize a European renewables target.** * Bloomsberg Business Week News, http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2013-11-20/polish-finance-chief-fired-in-cabinet-reshuffle ; ** DESMOGBLOG.COM, http://www.desmogblog.com/2013/09/18/poland-partners-coal-and-oil-corporate-sponsors-cop19-climate-conference Report on Warsaw (ISCIENCES, LLC)

7. Delegates to Warsaw were charged with creating a pathway that would enable elements of a universal climate agreement to be on the table ready for discussion by 2014 at COP20 in Lima. Context: COP19 Objectives This successor to the Kyoto Protocol must be finalized in 2015 at COP21 Paris in order to successfully enter into force in 2020 as scheduled. As established at COP17 Durban, progress must flow from the two workstreams of the ADP (Ad-hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action). The objectives for Warsaw were to: COP19 Opening (Credit: Mateusz Wlodarczyk via Wikimedia Commons) • Intensify work on defining elements of the 2015 agreement (workstream 1); • Reach clarity on the outcomes of raising ambition pre-2020 (workstream 2). At COP19’s conclusion, outcomes were sparse on both objectives, fulfilling only the most modest expectations. Report on Warsaw (ISCIENCES, LLC)

8. The means to define what would be required of whom in a new universal agreement remained unresolved. Outcomes: 2015 Treaty, Dissent The 2011 Durban Platform stipulated that a 2015 agreement would be “applicable to all,” a change that reflects a new global economy characterized by developing nations with substantial GHG outputs. These nations are exempt under the Kyoto Protocol. In Warsaw, discussions to begin defining this new structure never materialized. The LMDC* bloc argued to preserve their exempt (“Non-Annex I”) distinction as in the KP. Connie Hedegaard (Credit: UNFCCC Flickr) Claudia Salerno (Credit: UNFCCC Flickr) EU climate chief, Denmark’s Connie Hedegaard, expressed frustration with the failure to agree on an emissions cuts timetable, prompting Venezuela’s Claudia Salerno of the LMDCs to accuse the EU of painting them as obstructionists. The row threatened to shut down negotiations. * LMDC – Like-minded Developing Countries (Bolivia, China, Cuba, Dominica, Ecuador, Egypt, El Salvador, India, Iran, Iraq, Malaysia, Mali, Nicaragua, Philippines, Saudi Arabia, Sri Lanka, Sudan, Venezuela), adp_lmdc_workstream_1_20130313.pdf Report on Warsaw (ISCIENCES, LLC)

9. In an adopted decision that will shape the 2015 agreement, COP19 introduced the term “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDC), a move away from “commitments.” “To invite all Parties to initiate or intensify domestic preparations for their intended nationally determined contributions, without prejudice to the legal nature of the contributions, …and to communicate them well in advance of the twenty-first session of the Conference of the Parties (by the first quarter of 2015 by those Parties ready to do so)…” – COP19 Warsaw Decision 1/CP.19 Further Advancing the Durban Platform, Paragraph 2b, Nov 23, 2013 Outcomes: 2015 Treaty, “INDCs” This language leaves the character of the mitigation effort up to each nation and avoids differentiation between developed and developing countries. The inclusion of “…without prejudice to the legal nature of the contributions” leaves the legal character of the agreement open. Parties are asked to communicate the substance of their contributionsby the first quarter of 2015 if they are “ready to do so.” This outcome could prove unresponsive to the basic goal of keeping emissions reductions within the +2⁰C target, and sets up a tight timeline for completing a negotiating text at COP20 in Lima. Report on Warsaw (ISCIENCES, LLC)

10. COP19’s response to the task of accelerating pre-2020 mitigation ambition was decidedly unambitious. Outcomes: Pre-2020 Ambition The COP19 decision contains no ambition targets for 2020, but lots of “urging,” “intensifying,” “facilitating,” “inviting,” and “considering.” Parties are urged to communicate, implement or revisit their promised emission reductions under the Convention and KP2 QELROs*. Annex I Countries 2012 Emissions (Credit: UNFCCC) Since KP2 covers only about 15% of global emissions, other countries must contribute to the effort if the +2°C cap is to be achieved. But the reality is that with KP2 yet unauthorized pending ratification of the Doha Amendment*, there is no legally binding authority. * QELRO – Quantified Emissions Limitation and Reduction Commitments, http://unfccc.int/essential_background/glossary/items/3666.php#top; as of June 23, 2014, 11 of 144 countries have ratified the Doha Amendment, https://unfccc.int/kyoto_protocol/doha_amendment/items/7362.php Report on Warsaw (ISCIENCES, LLC)

11. COP19 created a mechanism to address loss and damage from climate change, but the effort lacked sufficient substance. Outcomes: “Loss and Damage” Loss and damage due to climate change can result from slow onset or extreme weather events. At COP18 it was agreed that COP19 would establish institutional arrangements to address loss and damage in countries that are particularly vulnerable. Typhoon Haiyan, Nov. 8, 2013 (Credit: NOAA Visualizations via Wikimedia Commons) Dutifully, COP19 created the Warsaw International Mechanism For Loss and Damage* which promised to enhance knowledge, action, and support. “Requests developed country Parties to provide developing country Parties with finance, technology and capacity-building, in accordance with decision 1/CP.16 and other relevant decisions of the Conference of the Parties” – Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage, Paragraph 14; Nov 22, 2013* However, the Mechanism merely “requests” that developed countries provide financial support, and its three-year review process may be too little too late. * Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage, fccc.cp.2013.l.15.pdf; Report on Warsaw (ISCIENCES, LLC)

12. REDD+ COP19 enjoyed relative success in its adoption of seven decisions in the Warsaw Framework for REDD-plus. The UN- REDD Programme is a UN initiative on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation in developing countries. REDD+ includes the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks. Outcomes: REDD+ • financing – Financing must be results-based; an information hub for transparency will be established on the REDD Web Platform. • institutional arrangements – National REDD+ agencies should be created to implement activities. • national forest monitoring systems – Countries must establish a transparent and consistent forest monitoring system using remote-sensing and ground-based observations. • transparency and safeguards – Countries should submit a full public report every two years starting in Dec. 2014 on how safeguards are being met to ensure that REDD+ is being implemented in equitable ways. • technical assessment – Forest reference emission levels and forest reference levels (baseline) are subject to a technical assessment. • measuring, reporting, verifying – MRV systems will be verified at the international levelby a body that includes experts from one developed and one developing country. • drivers of deforestation– Private sector, NGOs, developed and developing countries are encouraged to reduce drivers of deforestation. Report on Warsaw (ISCIENCES, LLC)

13. Political realities aside, scientific realities remain. How much carbon can we emit and still have a chance of limiting global temperature increase to +2⁰C? CARBON BUDGET: Overdrawn by 2045? Climate Science: The Carbon Budget The concept of a “carbon budget” is a cap on total emissions – from the beginning of the industrial revolution until the minute no emissions reach the atmosphere – that might keep us below +2⁰C. Any carbon over that budget must be left in the ground or emissions captured. To have a greater than 66% chance, the total cumulative budget is 1,000.GtC*, and we’ve already “spent” 515 (as of 2011).* “Surface temperatures will remain approximately constant at elevated levels for many centuries after a complete cessation of net anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Due to the long time scales of heat transfer from the ocean surface to depth, ocean warming will continue for centuries. Depending on the scenario, about 15 to 40% of emitted CO2 will remain in the atmosphere longer than 1,000 years.” – IPCC AR5 2013 SFP pg 28 On a carbon intensive trajectory we could exhaust our budget before the end of 2045 – a mere 32 years.* * GtC-gigatonnes carbon; IPCC AR5 2013 SFP pg 27,WG1AR5_SPM_FINAL.pdf; IPCC 5th Assessment Report, WG1AR5_ALL_FINAL.pdf; WRI, http://www.wri.org/blog/2013/09/world%E2%80%99s-carbon-budget-be-spent-three-decades#fnref:2 Report on Warsaw (ISCIENCES, LLC)

14. The UNFCCC will reconvene at COP20 in Lima, Peru Dec. 1-12, 2014. Ahead: COP20 Lima • Last stop? Lima is the last stop before nations of the world must come together, pens in hand, at COP21 ready to sign a new all-inclusive global agreement to limit GHG emissions. • Last opportunity? Lima may be the last opportunity for Developed and Developing nations to prove they can work together in an effective UNFCCC process. • Last chance? Lima may be the last chance for global leadership on climate change. Meanwhile, regional, sectoral, and corporate entities are feeling the heat. What’s Next? Dec. 1-12, 2014: COP20 Lima, 20th Session of the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the 10th Session of the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the Kyoto Protocol Watch for future installments of ISciences’ “Kyoto and Beyond” series at http://www.isciences.com/spotlight/kyoto_and_beyond.html. Report on Warsaw (ISCIENCES, LLC)

15. BloombergBusinessweekNews. Nov. 20, 2013. Polish finance chief fired in Cabinet reshuffle.http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2013-11-20/polish-finance-chief-fired-in-cabinet-reshuffle • Harvey, Fiona. Nov. 22, 2013. Warsaw climate change talks falter as EU and developing countries clash. The Guardian.com. http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/nov/22/warsaw-climate-change-talks-emissions-cut-timetable-eu • International Institute for Sustainable Development. Nov. 26, 2013. Earth Negotiations Bulletin Vol. 12 No. 594 .http://www.iisd.ca/download/pdf/enb12594e.pdf • Larsen, Gaia, and Florence Daviet. November 2012. Safeguarding Forests and People. World Resources Institute. http://www.wri.org/publication/safeguarding-forests-and-people • Lefton, Rebecca, Gwynne Taraska, Jenny Cooper, with Ben Bovarnick. Dec. 4, 2014. Warsaw Climate Talks End with Foundation for a Global Agreement. http://americanprogress.org/issues/green/report/2013/12/04/80378/warsaw-climate-talks-end-with-foundation-for-a-global-agreement/ • Levin, Kelly. Sept. 27, 2013. World’s Carbon Budget to Be Spent in Three Decades. World Resources Institute. http://www.wri.org/blog/2013/09/world%E2%80%99s-carbon-budget-be-spent-three-decades • Pidcock, Roz. Oct. 23, 2013. Carbon briefing: Making sense of the IPCC’s new carbon budget. The Carbon Brief [blog]. http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2013/10/carbon-briefing-making-sense-of-the-ipcc%E2%80%99s-new-carbon-budget/ • Selle, Caroline. Sept. 18, 2013. Poland Partners with Coal and Oil Corporate Sponsors for COP19 Climate Conference.http://www.desmogblog.com/2013/09/18/poland-partners-coal-and-oil-corporate-sponsors-cop19-climate-conference • UN REDD Programme. About the UN REDD Programme. http://www.un-redd.org/AboutUN-REDDProgramme/tabid/102613/Default.aspx. Accessed June 18, 2014. • UNFCCC. Dec. 11, 2011. Draft decision -/CP.17 Establishment of an Ad Hoc Working Group on the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action.http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/durban_nov_2011/decisions/application/pdf/cop17_durbanplatform.pdf • UNFCCC. Global Map – Annex I.http://maps.unfccc.int/di/map/. Accessed June 24, 2014. • UNFCCC. Glossary of climate change acronyms.http://unfccc.int/essential_background/glossary/items/3666.php. Accessed June 20, 2014. • UNFCCC. Warsaw Framework for REDD-plus. http://unfccc.int/methods/redd/items/8180.php. Accessed June 18, 2014 • UNFCCC. Nov. 22, 2013. Warsaw International Mechanism for Loss and Damage. http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/warsaw_nov_2013/in-session/application/pdf/fccc.cp.2013.l.15.pdf Sources Report on Warsaw (ISCIENCES, LLC)

16. United Nations Environment Programme. November, 2013. The Emissions Gap Report 2013.http://www.unep.org/pdf/UNEPEmissionsGapReport2013.pdf United Nations Environment Programme. November, 2013. The Emissions Gap Report 2013-Executive Summary.http://www.unep.org/publications/ebooks/emissionsgapreport2013/portals/50188/Executive_summary_en.pdf Yeo, Sophie, and Ed King. Nov. 23, 2013. Row over 2015 UN climate treaty slows progress at Warsaw summit. RTCC.org. http://www.rtcc.org/2013/11/22/row-over-2015-un-climate-treaty-slows-progress-at-warsaw-summit/ Sources Report on Warsaw (ISCIENCES, LLC)

17. When referencing this presentation please use the following citation. Citation ISCIENCES, L.L.C. Report on Warsaw COP19. A slideshow; 12th installment in the series Kyoto and Beyond – the Evolution of Multilateral Agreements on Climate Change. June 30, 2014. Ann Arbor, Michigan. www.isciences.com. Report on Warsaw (ISCIENCES, LLC)