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The 1995-2000 interprefectural migration of foreign residents of Japan: salient features and multivariate explanation. Yoshitaka Ishikawa (Kyoto University, Japan) and Kao-Lee Liaw (McMaster University, Canada) The 4th International Conference on Population Geographies
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The 1995-2000 interprefectural migration of foreign residents of Japan: salient features and multivariate explanation Yoshitaka Ishikawa (Kyoto University, Japan) and Kao-Lee Liaw (McMaster University, Canada) The 4th International Conference on Population Geographies at Hong Kong, China, on 12 July, 2007
Existing literature focused on foreign residents in Japan ◆There has been a proliferation of research since the mid-1980s, when massive immigration started. ◆ Foreigner rate is low (1.6%), but absolute number is large (approximately 2 million). ◆It is now an important research subject of all social sciences including geography.
Difficulty in studying migration of foreign residents in Japan ◆ No comprehensive source; general migration patterns have remained unknown. ◆Published Reports of 2000 Census 1) specific origins are unknown both for immigration and internal migration 2) detailed migrants’ attributes are unknown ⇒special application to Japanese Statistics Bureau to obtain micro data samples
Comparison of interprefectural migration between foreign residents and total population
Net-migration rate of Japanese interprefectural migration, 1995-2000
Major foreign residents in Japan(2000) Census Alien registration ethnicity 1,310,545 1,686,444 (1.03%) (1.33%) Korean 528,904 635,269 Chinese 252,680 335,575 Brazil 188,190 254,394 Filipino 93,352 144,871 Others 247,419 316,335
Nested logit model Departure sub-model: ⇒dependent variable: choice probability of stay in, or departure from, the prefecture of usual residence in 1995 ⇒sample size: 69,308 persons Destination choice sub-model : ⇒ dependent variable: choice probability of a particular destination among 46 prefectures ⇒ sample size: 42,301 persons
Explanatory variables Individual attributes <De, DC>: age,educational attainment, sex, ethnicity, family status Labour market related <De, DC>: employment opportunity, income level Co-ethnicattraction <De, DC> Marital opportunity : <De, DC> Prefectural size <De, DC> Competition with new immigrants <De, DC> Spatial separation <DC>:distance, contiguity Inclusive variable <De>
Why is international marriage in Tohoku region important? ● The stem family system is dominant in such region as Tohoku. To maintain this system, marriage is essential for household head’s son as successor. ●Due to imbalanced sex ratio, the issue of marriage squeeze for male population is serious in eastern half of Japan. ⇒Tohoku has both the first and second conditions. Unless household head’s son find Japanese new bride, he tends to look for his bride with foreign nationality.
Conclusion • Major destinations: Nagoya metropolitan area, manufacturing stronghold (not Tokyo metropolitan area) • Highly mobile persons: Brazilian, graduates from university • Application result of nested logit model <departure sub-model> ethnicity, age, educational attainment, competition with new immigrants, co-ethnic attraction <destination choice sub-model> spatial separation, prefectural size, employment opportunity, co-ethnic attraction
Implications of the findings Comparison of explanatory power of international marraige between new immigration and interprefectural migration: Role of international marriage in the former is larger than that in the latter. Comparison of migration pattern between foreigner and Japanese: Net inflow to Tokyo metropolitan area for Japanese is much larger than that for foreigner. ⇒Interprefectural migration by foreign residents has contributed to a reduction of “monopolar concentration in Tokyo”. ⇒”hollowization” of manufacturing employment opportunity may lead to an intensification of “monopolar concentration in Tokyo”.