MORS Analytic Agenda Conference Working Brief As of: September 15, 2009

1. MORS Analytic Agenda ConferenceWorking BriefAs of: September 15, 2009

2. Purpose/Agenda • Purpose: Describe the concept for a MORS conference on the Analytic Agenda • Agenda: • Conference overview • Opening plenary • Analytic Agenda Deep Dives • Special topics • Closing plenary • Admin/logistics

3. MORS Analytic Agenda Conference Overview • Title: Analytic Agenda Way Ahead • Date: March 1-4, 2010 • Co-Chairs: Al Sweetser and COL Steve Charbonneau • Location: Northrop Grumman Heritage Conference Center, Chantilly, VA • Objectives: • Broaden understanding of attendees on Analytic Agenda processes and products • Develop recommendations for improvement • Classification: SECRET REL ACGU (all sessions); an unclassified report will be produced • Proposed schedule:

4. Organizing Committee • Chairs: Al Sweetser, COL Steve Charbonneau • Host Organization Rep: Richard Miller, NGC • Sponsors: • CAPE: Jim Bexfield • JS: Lisa Disbrow • Services: John Robertson (Army), Tom Neal (Navy), Mike Bailey (USMC), Joe Seidl & Mary Cerniglia-Mosher (USAF) • JCS: COL Steve Charbonneau • Bulldog: Royce Reiss • Working Group Chairs: See next slide

5. Key Personnel/Working Group Leads

6. Monday, March 1, 2010: Opening Tutorials • Organizer: Mike Wilmer, BAH • Tentative schedule: • 1300: Policy overview/Defense Planning Scenarios • 1340: JS overview/Multi-Service Force Deployment Data • 1420: Break • 1430: CAPE overview/Future Year Analytic Baselines • 1515: JDS overview/Data management and Tools • 1600: AT&L overview/Development Planning

7. Tuesday, March 2, 2010: Opening Plenary • Organizer: CAPT Tom Neal, N81 • Tentative schedule: • 0800: Sponsor’s welcome (PA&E and Joint Staff)/Admin announcements • 0830 Keynote speaker: TBD • 0915 Break • Panel discussions • 0930: Policy/Joint Staff/PA&E perspective • 1030: Service/SOCOM perspective • 1130: COCOM/other DoD perspectives (NORTHCOM?, AT&L?, etc.) • Each panel begins with presenter highlighting: • How does my organization participate in the Analytic Agenda? • How does my organization use Analytic Agenda products? • What are my recommendations to improve Analytic Agenda processes and products? • Q&A follows each group of presenters

8. Plenary Speaker Bio’s • Mr. Jim Bexfield, FS, is the Director of the Study and Analytical Support Division of the Office of Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation (CAPE) in the Office of the Secretary of Defense. He supervises the Studies and Analyses Center, which provides analytical support to all of PA&E; and the Joint Data Support (JDS) office, which collects data to support campaign analyses for the DoD. He is the U.S. representative to the Joint Concepts and Analysis Panel in The Technical Cooperation Program (TTCP). Previously he was an analyst with the Institute for Defense Analyses and served in the United States Air Force. During his 23-year career in the Air Force he specialized in operations research, which included serving as Chief Analyst, Air Force Studies and Analyses. In this position, he was the principal military consultant to the general officer who provided analytical support to the Chief of Staff and the Secretary of the Air Force. Mr. Bexfield has been active in the Military Operations Research Society, serving as its president in 1983-85. In 1993 he was elected a Fellow of the Society and in 1994 he received the Vance R. Wanner award. • Lisa Disbrow • Keynote speaker

9. Analytic Agenda Deep Dives • Timing: end of opening plenary to mid-day Wed • Topics/leads • Warfight; lead J8 WAD • SSSP/ISP; lead Army • Homeland Defense; lead TBD • Irregular Warfare; lead CAPE • Potential questions for discussion: • Review DPS: what were the DPS challenges? Was the range of military options explored within the DPS? How can this be addressed? Were significant risks to the defense strategy omitted when a single challenge was selected for MSFD development? How can that risk be mitigated? • Review MSFD: describe red/blue/green forces & CONOPS; were there strategy gaps in the DPS that had to be addressed in the MSFD or could not be addressed in the MSFD development? What were they? How do we preclude that from happening? • Review Analytical Baseline: were there gaps in the MSFD that had to be addressed in the study? What were they? Were there data sets that were missing that should/could have been included? What were the tools & metrics used? What was the review process? What insights were obtained? What excursions were assessed & why? How could the analysis have been improved? • Downstream use: present examples of the subsequent use of this DPS/MSFD/Analytical Baseline; how well did the Analytic Agenda process support CONOPS and capabilities development or programming? How can we improve the feedback mechanism of the Analytic Agenda

10. WG1, Warfight - Charter and Approach • Chair: COL Steve Charbonneau, JS J-8 • Co-Chair: Maj Eric Murphy, JS J-8 • Synthesis members: • Mission • Approach • Goals

11. WG 1, Warfight – Draft Schedule • Tues PM • Wed AM

12. WG 2, SSSP/ISP - Charter and Approach • Chair: John Robertson • Co-Chair: • Synthesis members: • Mission • Approach • Goals

13. WG 2, SSSP/ISP – Draft Schedule • Tues PM • Wed AM

14. WG 3: Homeland Defense/Defense Support to Civil Authorities - Charter and Approach • Chair: TBD • Co-Chair: TBD • Synthesis members: • Mission • Approach • Goals

15. WG 3: Homeland Defense/Defense Support to Civil Authorities – Draft Schedule • Tues PM • Wed AM

16. WG 4: Irregular Warfare - Charter and Approach • Chair: Lt Col Kirsten Messer • Co-Chair: • Synthesis members: • Mission • Approach • Goals

17. WG 4: Irregular Warfare – Draft Schedule • Tues PM • Wed AM

18. Special Topics • Timing: mid-day Wed to mid-day Thurs • Topics/leads/agendas • Data/Tools mgmt/VV&A/phenomenology: lead TBD • How can JDS improve support to the Analytic Agenda and DoD? • C4ISR/IO/EW analysis: lead NII; co-lead A9 • How can studies better incorporate these capabilities and their effects into analysis? • Development planning: lead AT&L • How can the Analytic Agenda support early development of new acquisition programs? • How would consideration of new capabilities in development affect Analytic Agenda processes? • Interagency collaboration: Lead A9; co-lead DHS? • How can interagency participation in Analytic Agenda processes be improved? • How can representation of interagency capabilities be improved? • Should there be an interagency Analytic Agenda?

19. WG 5, Data/Tools/VV&A - Charter and Approach • Chair: • Co-Chair: • Synthesis members: • Mission • Approach • Goals

20. WG 5, Data/Tools/VV&A - Charter and Approach • Wed PM • Thurs AM

21. WG 6: C4ISR/EW/IO - Charter and Approach • Chair: Norm Yarbrough, OSD NII • Co-Chair: • Synthesis members: • Mission • Approach • Goals

22. WG 6, Warfight – Draft Schedule • Wed PM • Thurs AM

23. WG 7: Development Planning –Charter and Approach • Chair: Peter Lierni • Co-Chair: • Synthesis members: • Mission • Approach • Goals

24. WG 7: Development Planning –Draft Schedule • Tues PM • Wed AM

25. WG 8: Inter-agency/International collaboration - Charter and Approach • Chair: Mary Cerniglia-Mosher • Co-Chair: • Synthesis members: • Mission • Approach • Goals

26. WG 8: Inter-agency/International collaboration – Draft Schedule • Wed PM • Thurs AM

27. Plan for Synthesis Group • Members/assignments • Approach • Attendee survey?

28. Plenary SessionThursday 1300-1700 • 1250 Introductory remarks: Chair/Co-Chair • 1300-1330 Synthesis group outbrief • 1330 WG 1 outbrief • 1345 WG 2 outbrief • 1400 WG 3 outbrief • 1445 WG 4 outbrief • 1500 Q&A for WGs 1-4 • 1520 break • 1530 WG 5 outbrief • 1545 WG 6 outbrief • 1600 WG 7 outbrief • 1615 WG 8 outbrief • 1630 Q&A for WGs 5-8 • 1650 Recognitions & Sponsor’s concluding remarks

29. Logistics/Admin • Site POC: Richard H. Miller (richard.miller@ngc.com) • Site layout:

30. Logistics/Admin – Room Assignments • Tutorial/Opening & closing plenary: Freedom Auditorium (capacity?) • MORS Office • WG 1: • WG 2: • WG 3: • WG 4: • WG 5: • WG 6: • WG 7: • WG 8: • Synthesis:

31. Logistics/Admin • Requirement: Catering for morning & afternoon breaks • MORS POC: Colette to make arrangements (contract) directly • Lunches • Working groups will plan on 60 minute lunch breaks • Workshop attendees lunch as individuals • Pls provide some details on lunch options • Mixer? • MORS POC: Colette to make arrangements • Is this part of the conference?

32. Logistics/Admin • IT support? Pls provide details • Hardware • Log-in • Ability to email classified presentations to site? • Procedure for obtaining conference electronic files? • Security issues • Disposal of classified paper? • Process to take classified notes? • Processing of clearances • Foreign Visitors • US Visitors

33. Logistics/Admin • Disclosure forms needed for all presentations • Plenary • Working groups • WGs that are unclassified: NONE • MORS Office will make copies of WG agendas and distribute to all attendees • Working group chairs need to work with the MORS Office to ensure the people you want are invited • Provide addresses so MORS office can send information or • You may want to e-mail them and suggest that they go to the MORS website for an application (www.mors.org)

34. Disclosure Forms Received in the MORS OfficeAs of: • Name, presentation

35. Workshop Products • An executive summary addressing the findings, conclusions, and recommendations • Common issues of concern among participants • Potential solutions in terms of tools, methods, and data • Proposals for future collaboration on analysis and development of tools, methods, and data • A PHALANX article • A proceedings document containing the summaries of all sessions and copies of appropriate briefing slides and presentations (unclassified) • Will need scripted out-brief from the Working Group Chairs about 30 days after workshop • Coordination/writing session Friday 0800-1200 after the workshop for group leads

36. Attendance Status Allies/Non-DoD United Kingdom # Canada # Australia # DHS # Total: ## • So, xx people have indicated they plan to attend By Work Group Program Staff # Synthesis 7 WG 1: 39 WG 2: 19 WG 3: 27 WG 4: 13 Plenary Only 2 Others 5 Grand Total 114 US OSD # JS # Army # Navy # USAF # COCOMs #

37. Logistics/Admin – VIP Attendees • Name, Session attending • VIP parking?

38. Site Issues – Hotels / Transportation • MORS Hotel • MORS Office has arranged for xx to be the workshop headquarters hotel • Bus or shuttles?

39. Hot Actions • WG action plans • Synthesis group action plan • Confirm panel participants for opening plenary • Identify/invite keynote speaker • Update TOR • Develop PHALANX article • How do we deal with issues not easily binned – lunchtime hot topics? • Unclassified scenarios? • Use of AB products across DoD? • Hybrid warfare?