Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow

1. Yesterday, Today and Tomorrow Jerry Bunin Government Affairs Director Home Builders Association of the Central Coast (805) 546-0226/(805) 459-2807 Jbunin@hbacc.org June 1, 2006

2. The Home Builders Association • Represents • 45 builders • 170 more associate members • 30,000 total employees mostly in SLO & SB counties • We probably built your house • This is our home. We care about it just like you • Quality of life is part of what we sell • Bad business to harm it

3. We believe • Safe, decent shelter is a fundamental right • Meeting that need is a noble business • Building housing builds communities • You need housing to have people • You need people to have an economy

4. My job • If you like housing, I’m a “liaison” • If you like “no growth,” I’m a “dirty lobbyist” • In truth, I’m a talker: • With government, the media and the public about making laws and policies that help people have a home

5. What I’ve learned in 3 ½ years • Housing advocates on the Central Coast are • Lonely and pariahs • Everyone talks a better game than they play • Everyone supports • Housing in someone else’s backyard • Affordable housing if someone else pays for it and builds it somewhere else

6. General Plans • Every city and county has one • Your most fundamental planning law • They guide you today into tomorrow • What they don’t do is tell you -- • What happens on the day after tomorrow? • What happens when your General Plan ends?

7. Yesterday • General Plan approved June 2002 • Projected a • 1.25 % annual growth rate • A maximum 2025 population 36,308 • Known as “General Plan Buildout” • Some think it is the “End of Growth”

8. Today • Atascadero’s population: • 2000 Census = 26,411 • Jan. 1, 2006 = 27,683 • May 22, 2006 = 27,596 (You are shrinking) • Your annual growth rate is .94 % • You are adding less than 200 people a year • SLO County • Growth rate since 2000 Census = .54 % • Adding 2,700 people a year

9. Tomorrow • At this rate, Atascadero’s: • Buildout won’t occur until 2040 • Will have a new General Plan before buildout • Your new plan will have a higher buildout number • Time will not stop in 2025 • Life, history and growth will continue

10. Random poll • How many think we aren’t growing enough? • How many think we need more workforce housing? • How many think we are growing too fast? • How many want development to stop • Now? • 2025? • 2040?

11. Arguments against growth • This is a democracy – We get to choose • No water • Too much traffic • We like being rural • We’ve grown too much • Don’t want to be LA

12. Democracy • Christine Mulholland’s Theory • We get to choose our future • Doesn’t apply to Owen’s Valley • Jerry Bunin’s Corollary • You don’t get to choose everyone else’s future • This is a democracy. We are a free people. • You can’t stop people from moving here • You don’t have that right

13. Democracy • The Declaration of Independence describes “life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness” as sacred and inalienable rights • Those rights aren’t reserved for those who got here first! • If they were, we have to give our land back to the Native Americans

14. Water • Claiming we don’t have water is all wet • We refuse water to block development • Water is available • 15,000 acre-feet of state water • 9,600 acre-feet of Nacimiento water • Enough water to serve 125,000 people • 50 % more people than the county today • Enough water for 44 years at today’s growth rate

15. Traffic • Do we have too much traffic now? • We caused it when we moved here • We can: • Live with it • Move • Pay more taxes for road improvements • Charge new homes to offset infrastructure needs they create • Not charge new homes to fix impacts we created

16. Rural • 95 % of the county is undeveloped • 3 % of the county is urban • Other than along highways 101 and 1, we are • Rural • Open space • Parkland and • Farmland

17. LA vs. SLO • San Luis Obispo County total • 260,727 people • 3,320 square miles • Population density of 78.5 people per square mile. • Seven cities • 80 square miles • 150,000 people • 1,850 people per square mile.

18. Southern California • Orange County • 3 million people • 800 square miles • Population density of 3,750 people per square mile • San Fernando Valley • 1.8 million people • 220 square miles • 8,100 per square mile • Numbers don’t lie!

19. California • Adds 500,000 people a year • Permits enough homes for 80 % of them • SLO County, to meet state requirements, • Should add 2,400 homes a year • Has added less than 2,100 homes a year • 13 % less a year than needed to meet population growth

20. Economics 101 • Demand exceeds supply • Housing costs rise • Young families and the workforce moves • Economy suffers • Public services suffer • Medical care suffers • Civic service suffer, etc.

21. Economics 202 • Solutions? • Stop development • Build more housing • Continue what we’ve been doing • Try something new

22. Four rules to stop growth • Sterilize everyone • Children and grandchildren cause growth • Stop immigration • Fences and armed guards around SLO County and Atascadero • Ban economic development • Business creation and expansion causes growth • No whining • We can live without a working class

23. A more radical solution • Planning for tomorrow • Zone more land for housing • Use residentially zoned land intelligently • Support well-designed higher density projects • Streamline the development approval process • Seek regional solutions • We must create a job-housing balance

24. Higher density • Higher density isn’t “high” density • If land is zoned one home per 2 ½ acres • Make it two homes per acre • A 500 % increase • Still low density • Let land zoned four units an acre to have five homes • A 20 % increase and still low density

25. Planning for tomorrow • We aren’t ready for tomorrow • We aren’t ready for today • Housing permits have fallen the last three years • Young families and workers are leaving • Countywide in 1995 • Average 2.5 people a household • Countywide 2006 • Average single-family home 2.3 people • Average multi-family home 1.9 people

26. Even more radical solutions • Compromise and cooperate • Post Prop. 13 impact 13 model is a failure • Change attitudes • Ask not what is in this for me, but what is in the best interest of my community • Embrace change • The status quo is going in the wrong direction

27. Parting quotes “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” George Santayana “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.” Albert Einstein “It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.” Charles Darwin