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Session 1 | U.S. Property Market Outlook

Session 1 | U.S. Property Market Outlook. Presented by: Jon Southard , Managing Director and Director of Forecasting. Two Groups for Vacancy vs. Historical Average. Ratio – Vacancy to Historical Average. Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors. Same Two Groups for Current Rent Growth.

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Session 1 | U.S. Property Market Outlook

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  1. Session 1 | U.S. Property Market Outlook Presented by: Jon Southard, Managing Director and Director of Forecasting

  2. Two Groups for Vacancy vs. Historical Average Ratio – Vacancy to Historical Average Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  3. Same Two Groups for Current Rent Growth Year-over-Year, % Rent Change Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  4. …Creates Leaders and Laggards in NCREIF Forecasts Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors

  5. Cap Rate Declines Ended, but Reversal At End of Five Year Window Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors

  6. …And The Treasury Rate is Why Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors

  7. But Wait, Using A Different Return Approach… Ignores Benefits of Property Management and Trading Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  8. But Wait, Using A Different Return Approach… Ignores Benefits of Property Management and Trading Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  9. For Unmanaged Office, NOI and Cap Rate Increase Mis-timed Index, 100 = 2012Q2 Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  10. Simple Rent to NOI Relationship Index, 100 = 2012Q2 Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  11. …Whereas Multifamily Takes One Punch Index, 100 = 2012Q2 Sources: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  12. Market Strategies

  13. Office Markets that “Give You” Returns 5 Year IRR (%) NCREIF-based Cap Rate (%) Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  14. IRR Looks at Income Return, Rent Growth, and Rent Roll-down Rent Growth Opportunity, But It’s Not Assured Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  15. Can The Tortoise Match The Hare? Office Rent Growth, % Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  16. More Multi-housing Markets that “Give You” Returns 5 Year IRR (%) NCREIF-based Cap Rate (%) Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  17. Multifamily Has No Roll-down Capital Costs or Low Capitalizations Can Keep Off List Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  18. Industrial Markets that “Give You” Returns 5 Year IRR (%) NCREIF-based Cap Rate (%) Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  19. IRR Looks at Income Return, Rent Growth, and Rent Roll-down Rent Growth Opportunity, But It’s Not Assured Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  20. IRR Looks at Income Return, Rent Growth, and Rent Roll-down Rent Growth Is Only Retail Opportunity Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  21. Employment Growth Isn’t Everything Annualized, % Change Source: CBRE Econometric Advisors.

  22. Tech and Energy Are Common Themes Location Quotient = % of Total Emp / US % of Total Emp Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, CBRE Econometric Advisors.

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