Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE

1. CRed Sustainable Energy Conference 23rd March 2004 Keith Tovey M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE • Energy Science Director: Low Carbon Innovation Centre • School of Environmental Sciences: University of East Anglia

2. Can we Fuel the People using Sustainable Technology? • The Problem • Some of the Barriers • What is being done? • Energy Security - Hard Choices Ahead • Sustainable Technology And Renewability - the STAR of the EAST.

3. Can we Fuel the People using Sustainable Technology? The Eastern Region the Energy Region of England and Wales. • Good Renewable Prospects • Important GAS links (Russian Pipe Line). • Major Employment Opportunities.

4. Carbon 3 Gas Mammoth Coastal Erosion Climatic History Carbon 2 Coal Kings Lynn Carbon Eras Peterborough Carbon 1 Peat Norfolk Floods Recent Events Great Yarmouth Electricity Cambridge Star Fish Renewables Suffolk Sizewell Little Barford Dunwich Conservation Bedford Essex Rye House Canvey Island 1953 Floods Hertfordshire Carbon 3 Oil Tilbury Climate and Energy in the East

5. Can we Fuel the People using Sustainable Technology? • Climate Change - The Problem • Future Scenarios if we do nothing

6. Future Global Warming Rates

7. Reasons for Concern Range of predicted temperatures Risks to Many Large Increase Net Negative for all marketsmost Negative for most Regions Higher Risk oC Some positive/ some negative Most people adversely affected Current temperature Risks to Some Negative for some Regions Increase Very Low Risk Historic Average Average 1950 - 1970 I II III IV V I Risks to Unique and Threatened Systems II Risks from Extreme Climatic Events III Distribution of Impacts IV Aggregate Impacts V Risks from Future Large Scale Discontinuities

8. Electricity Scenarios for UK and implications on CO2 emissions. Variable Scenario: 40% Gas; 20% Nuclear Nuclear Scenario Gas Scenario Coal Scenario 20% reduction 60% reduction • 20 year growth in demand • 1.8-2% per annum • 2.2% in 2003 Assumptions: 20% renewable generation by 2020, Demand stabilizes at 420 TWH in 7 years

9. Can we Fuel the People using Sustainable Technology? • The Government Response • Legislative Barriers

10. Government Response • Energy White Paper – aspiration for 60% cut in CO2 emissions by 2050 • Will require unprecedented partnership activity in local communities to ensure on track by 2020s • (– but no indication of how this will be undertaken) “There will be much more localgeneration, in part from medium to small local/community power plant, fuelled by locally grown biomass, from locally generatedwaste, and from local wind sources. These will feed local distributed networks, which can sell excess capacity into the grid.’’ - Energy White Paper: February 2003

11. UK • Renewables Obligation > 10.4% by 2010 • in 2003 - 2004 -----4.3%, but in practice barely 3% • Announced on 11th March 2004 - 3.139 p per kWh • Revision of Building Regulations brought forward • EU • Biofuels Directive for Transport • 2005 (2%) >>> 5.75% in 2010 • Carbon Emission Trading - National Allocation Plans to be in place by 31st March 2004.

12. Legislative Barriers to Sustainability • Carbon Emission Trading - UK National Allocation Plan • Several Serious Flaws • Does not reward “Early Action” • Based purely on Historical Emissions • Should be based (at least in part) on Technology employed • Fails to address issue of improved Load Factors of CHP where these are subsequently associated with adsorption chilling • Does not reward efforts towards energy conservation in past. • Restrictions on Grants (Heat Recovery Heat Pumps) • up to 80% of heat energy can be needed for ventilation • excluded from grants unless incorporated in a ground loop recovery system.

13. The Elizabeth Fry Building Heating provided by two domestic sized boilers. Energy requirement 20% of good practice for Academic Buildings.

14. Projected Performance of ZICER Elizabeth Fry performance has improved over years. ZICER will be better and less than 70% of emissions of mid 90’s best practice building Photovoltaic cells will generate ~ 34 kW and save 20 tonnes CO2 per annum.

15. Performance of Elizabeth Fry and ZICER Problems with Building Regulations No incentive to improve: 8 out of 10 is really 8 out of 17.7 Optional Renewable/Conservation Packages for New Homes?

16. Can we Fuel the People using Sustainable Technology? • The Community Response • Technical Solutions • Renwable Energy • Energy Conservation • The CRed Project • Awareness Raising.

17. The Right Language On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. 300 million each year for UK. CRed

18. Some facts: A mobile phone charger left on even when not charging up to 25 kg CO2 a year Standby on television > 60 kg per year Filling up with petrol (~£30 for a full tank) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1300 cc Toyota Corolla) emits as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour 1.6 miles CRed

19. Solar Energy - The BroadSol Project Solar Collectors installed 26th January 2004 Average daily Solar Gain to March 21st ~ 1.6 kWh

20. Duke Street Renovation Domestic Units – Rebuild /Refurbishment of existing façade on Duke Street Location of former Heat Pump – the first in the UK Domestic Units – Refurbishment of former Electricity Board Offices Commercial /Hotel Development River Wensum • Norwich led the way in 1940’s: First ever Heat Pump • Opportunity to reinstate a heat pump in the same building that John Sumner did his pioneering work.

21. Wind Turbines at UEA? Yare Valley Society have been universally opposed to any development in Yare Valley. BUT Using a careful consultation, opinions changed.

22. Emphasised turbines – from Broad On their questionnaire - 21% voted 50% in favour

23. Can we Fuel the People using Sustainable Technology? • Difficult Choices Ahead

24. Difficult Choices Ahead Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods

25. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable

26. Our Choices: They are difficult • Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass. • If our answer is NO • Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power • Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? • If our answer is NO • Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly • unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years which is unlikely If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>

27. Our Choices: They are difficult • If our answer is YES • By 2020 • we will be dependent on around 70% of our heating and electricity from GAS • imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria • Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> • If not: • We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. • Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises.

28. Our Choices: They are difficult • A diverse supply of renewables across the country will provide security. BUT: Aren’t Renewables unreliable? – we need secure supply • A diverse renewable supply will be local • less prone to cascade power cuts • Conventional generation is based on large units: 500 – 660 MW • Failure of one of these requires much greater backup • Localised generation reduces transmission/distribution losses

29. Can we Fuel the People using Sustainable Technology? Sustainable Technology And Renewability STAR of the EAST • An integration of ideas: • Awareness about Climate Change and Energy Issues • A demonstration integrated Renewable Power Station. • A Research facility for cutting edge technology • A centrefor Industries of the Future • A Tourist attraction • A link for the Region • A Conference Venue for Sustainability

30. Detailed Aerial Photograph Existing Switching Station Pylons Former Power Station - now demolished

31. Star of the East Alsop Arhitects

32. Star of the East Alsop Arhitects

33. Star of the East Alsop Arhitects

34. View from Thorpe Station The STAR will be 50% higher than the pylons which will be demolished

35. Sustainable Technology And Renewablility The Star of the EAST Climatic History Carbon Eras Recent Events Electricity Renewables Conservation STARS of excellence in each County Write to EEDA in Support of the STAR by next MONDAY

36. What is CRed doing - will you become a partner? Will you pledge to reduce Carbon Dioxide? As an Individual, the pledge might be a small challenge: for an Organisation, it might be a large one. Visit the CRed Website www.cred-uk.org to pledge on-line This presentation will be on the WEB from 24th March at www2.env.uea.ac.uk/cred/creduea.htm Diocese of Norwich Global Commodities Your Energy Grp Rainbow foods Strattons BroadLand D.C. Whitby Bird Powergen Deepdale Farm Liftshare Norwich City FC SLP Energy Suffolk County Council Norwich Union Amicus Woody’s CML Contractors Eastern Heatpumps Camelot Craft Kingswood School EBC Ltd. Norfolk County Council EEDA Norwich 21 Fielden & Mawson Eastern Daily Press Creative Construction Farmers link Norwich City Council The BroadsAuthority. May Gurney LEA SERCO EEEGr Foodlink Sth Norfolk D. C. BPS Alpha Schools 100 + The RSPB SUSTRANS R.Bilbie Amicus AEEAC Jarvis LSI SMS EDP