The Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future: Hard Choices Ahead

1. The Path to a Sustainable Low Carbon Future: The Hard Choices Facing Us - Climate Change and Energy Security 1st December 2009 Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) Н.К.ТовиM.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Energy Science Director: Low Carbon InnovationCentre School of Environmental Sciences, UEA. 1

2. Increasing Occurrence of Drought 2

3. Increasing Occurrence of Drought Increasing Occurrence of Flood 3

4. Norwich Consequence of ~ 1m rise Consequence of ~ 6m rise (Source: Prof. Bill McGuire, University College London) Norwich City would be playing water polo! 4

5. Is Global Warming Man Made? Not according to Channel 4: “ The Great Global Warming Swindle”! Conveniently omits recent data post 1980 and 10 hottest years 5

6. 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 Is Global Warming man made? actual predicted Temperature Rise (oC) 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 actual predicted Temperature Rise (oC) 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 actual predicted Temperature Rise (oC) 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Prediction: Natural only good match until 1960 Prediction: Anthropogenic only Not a good match between 1920 and 1970 • Predictions include: • Greenhouse Gas emissions • Sulphates and ozone • Solar and volcanic activity Prediction: Natural and Anthropogenic Generally a good match 6 Source: Hadley Centre, The Met.Office

7. Climate Change: Arctic meltdown 1979 - 2003 Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region NASA satellite imagery الصيف الجليد في القطبالشمالي تغطية المنطقة القطبيه ناسا الصور الفضاءيه 2003 1979 تغير المناخاثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب 1979 - 2003 • 20% reduction in 24 years • 20 ٪تخفيض في 24 سنوات 7 7 Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html

8. What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem? How does UK compare with other countries? Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others? China UK Per capita Carbon Emissions 8

9. 9

10. Electricity Generation i n selected Countries r

11. Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security Import Gap 11

12. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Langeled and Balzand Pipe Lines completed UK becomes net importer of gas in 2004 Price projected by Government for Gas generation in 2020 12 12

13. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods Nuclear New Build assumes one new station is completed each year after 2018. Carbon sequestration either by burying it or use methanolisation as a new transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s 13 13

14. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Average on shore load factor for UK 27.8% Turbine size of Swaffham will provide ON AVERAGE sufficient electricity for 960 houses in Norwich or 601 houses in Kings Lynn At peak output it supplies electricity for 3450 houses in Norwich or 2160 houses in Kings Lynn Average consumption per house Norwich 3779 kWh/year (14th out of 408 districts in UK) Kings Lynn 6082 kWh/year (391st out of 408) 14

15. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Scroby Sands had a Load factor of 25.8% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 60% needs of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich 15

16. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW 16

17. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Area required to supply 5% of UK electricity needs ~ 400 sq km - But energy needed to make PV takes up to 10 years to pay back in UK. 17

18. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable • Transport Fuels: • Biodiesel? • Bioethanol? • Compressed gas from • methane from waste. But Land Area required is very large - the area of Norfolk and Suffolk would be needed to generate just over 5% of UK electricity needs. 18

19. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable 19

20. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable 20

21. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Output 78 000 GWh per annum - Sufficient for 13500 houses, but there are only 4000 in Orkney. Controversy in bringing cables south Save 40000 tonnes of CO2 21

22. Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable 22

23. Our Choices: They are difficult: Energy Security There is a looming capacity shortfall Even with a full deployment of renewables. A 10% reduction in demand per house will see a rise of 7% in total demand - Increased population decreased household size

24. Our Choices: They are difficult • Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. • Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 20 years. • If our answer is NO • Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? • Are we happy on this and the other attendant risks? • If our answer is NO • Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly • unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years UNLIKELY If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> 24

25. Our Choices: They are difficult • If our answer is YES • By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS • for around 70% of our heating and electricity • imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria • Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> • If not: • We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. • Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises. 25

26. Involve the local Community -The BroadSol Project Solar Collectors installed 27th January 2004 Annual Solar Gain 910 kWh Members of community agreed to purchase Solar Panels at same time. Significantly reduced costs 26

27. Performance of a Solar Thermal Hot Water System 27

28. Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: Solar Photovoltaic Photovoltaic cells are still expensive, but integration of ideas is needed. Output depends on type but varies from ~70kWh to ~100kWh per square meter per year. Average house in Norwich consumes ~ 3779 kWh per year [14th/408] West Norfolk, 6082 kWh [391st/408] per year 28

29. Responding to the Challenge: Technical Solutions: The Heat Pump • Any low grade source of heat may be used • Coils buried in garden 1 – 1.5 m deep • Bore holes • Lakes/Rivers are ideal • Air can be used but is not as good • Best performance if the temperature source between outside source and inside sink is as small as possible. • Heat pump delivers 3, 4, or even 5 times as much heat as electricity put in. 29

30. Involve the local Community The residents on the island of Burray (Orkney) campaigned for a wind turbine. On average they are more than self-sufficient in electricity needs and indeed are a net exporter of electricity. Many of the Islanders bought shares in the project and are now reaping the reward. Orkney is hoping to be a zero net emitter of carbon dioxide by 2015. Residents of Reepham in Norfolk got together as a community to order bulk loft insulation and cavity wall insulation and drove down the costs by bulk ordering through working as a community. They are now going on to ever better things. 30 30

31. Ways to Respond to the Challenge: Technical Issues Combined Heat and Power • Pipes being laid in streets in Copenhagen • Most towns in Denmark have city wide schemes such as these • Pipes like these were recently laid in UEA to new Thomas Paine Building 31 31

32. On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797) 32

33. Raising Awareness At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai 上海徐汇区高第一小学 • A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2. • 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. • A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year • ~ 500 balloons each year. • Standby on electrical appliances • up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year) • A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. • Filling up with petrol (~£38 for a full tank – 40 litres) • --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for1 hour? 1.6 miles School children at the Al Fatah University, Tripoli, Libya 33

34. Where do emissions arise from over which we have direct control ? • Medium size • Detached House • Gas central heating • Cavity Insulation • Double Glazing • 100mm Loft Insulation • Ordinary (non-condensing) boiler 1 holiday to Mallorca for family of 4 • 2 family cars • small petrol • ~ 10000 miles • medium diesel • ~ 12000 miles 34 Above Pie Chart shows analysis for a typical family with a reasonably well insulated house. Over half their emissions arise from transport

35. The Behavioural Dimension Social Attitudes towards energy consumption have a profound effect on actual consumption Data collected from 114 houses in Norwich For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER] can vary by as much as 9 times. When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times 35

36. Monitoring Energy can save significant amounts of Energy Pilot Lights turned off during week Pilot lights off Weekly Energy Data from St Paul’s Church Tuckswood One heater only on Pilot Lights on heaters – additional cost £9 per week No data In 10 weeks £82 has been saved by revised strategy At same time 322 kg of emissions have been saved. 36

37. What is UEA doing? Target Day Results of the “Big Switch-Off” With a concerted effort savings of 25% or more are possible 37 How can these be translated into long term savings?

38. What is UEA doing? 800 350 ZICER Building one of six low energy teaching buildings on campus Space Heating Consumption reduced by 57% 38

39. What is UEA doing? UEA’s Combined Heat and Power 3 units each generate 1.0 MW electricity and 1.4 MW heat After installation – cut UEA’s carbon emissions by 32%

40. What is UEA doing? A 1 MW Adsorption chiller Providing cooling from waste heat • Adsorption Heat pump uses Waste Heat from CHP • Provides most of chilling requirements in summer • Reduces electricity demand in summer • Increases electricity generated locally • Saves 500 – 700 tonnes Carbon Dioxide annually 40 40

41. Trailblazing to a Low Carbon Future • Low Energy Buildings • Effective Adaptive Energy Management • Photovoltaics • Combined Heat and Power • Absorption Chilling • Advanced CHP using Biomass Gasification 41

42. The Unbalanced Triangular Trade 0.94 billion people Raw materials 1.33 billion people Aid & Education Products: 478 Mtonnes CO2 increase in 3 years Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years 1.03 billion people 42

43. A Pathway to a Low Carbon Future • Awareness Management 1. Awareness Offsetting Green Tariffs 43 Renewable Energy Technical Measures

44. And Finally This presentation is available on the WEB at >follow Academic Resources Link www.cred-uk.org LaoTzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher 老子 （604-531BC）中国古代思想家、哲学家 “If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading.” （直译）：“如果你不改变，你将止步于原地。”