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WMO NWP Wokshop: Blending Breakout

WMO NWP Wokshop: Blending Breakout. Blending Breaout Members. Paul Joe- Chair Steve Goodman- Rappoteur George Isaac Peter Li Steve Weygandt Rita Roberts JianJie Wang Yong Wang. Issues- Greatest Gap. People working on NWP need more focus on High Impact WX, esp Extreme Events

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WMO NWP Wokshop: Blending Breakout

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  1. WMO NWP Wokshop:Blending Breakout

  2. Blending Breaout Members • Paul Joe- Chair • Steve Goodman- Rappoteur • George Isaac • Peter Li • Steve Weygandt • Rita Roberts • JianJie Wang • Yong Wang

  3. Issues- Greatest Gap • People working on NWP need more focus on High Impact WX, esp Extreme Events • Verifying on wrong thing- CSI • Need more frequent outputs fomr models at higher time resolution • Need to focus on non convective WX elements- wind, fog… • Non traditional information • Dual pol • Lightning threat • Satellite • Probabilistic nowcast- what refresh rate • Model guidance not very good- what level of probability leads to high confidence

  4. Issues- Greatest Gap • Need more specificity from the models • Within 100 km need more point specific • Need high res winds • Rapid update cycle to update rapidly changing environment- eg, afternoon pre-convective evironment • More sfcobs • Dual pol • GPS, profilers • Improved representation of PBL- inversions • Improved microphysics

  5. Issues- Greatest Gap • Short lived wx events less predictable • Limitation to extend nowcast beyond 2 hours- 2-6 still Big gap due to technology • Blending appropriate strategy to extend nowcasting in a physical way • Need boundary layer variables from models-background mesoscale forcing • This workshop should be held on regular basis to ascertain progress- every 2 years?

  6. Issues- Greatest Gap • Support idea for regular workshops- attach to conference- AMS, EGU… • Data assimilation close to observation • Need analysis/output of near surface parameters- eg, 2 m temperature • Better forecast of uncertainty of forecast variables produced by model-eg, motion fields • More detailed atmospheric structure- icing potential, visibility require 3D temp, humidity, winds

  7. Issues- Greatest Gap • Need NWP model improvement for small scale\ • Model physics biases, esp PBL • Microphysics • Improved meso/storm scale assimilation • For mesoscale its an observation problem- inadequate gaps- vertical structure • Precipitation assimilation- can we get useful wind information from cloud and precip information • Optimal use of radial velocity on storm scale • Forecasting impacts harder than forecasting the weather- eg, flooding the issue for Hurricane Irene

  8. Issues- Greatest Gap • Poor humidity forecasts- poor boundary layer forcecasts • More work on Probabilistic vs Deterministic forecast- 4 km ensemble vs 1 km deterministic • Need higher resolution- less than 1 km • Need model output at less than hourly- 15 min or better • Better info on cloud base • Output statistics that users want • Need more mesoscale expertise • Higher resolution measurements on shorter time scales- 1 min • Our classical measurements- were not designed to produce 1 min interval information • Need more NWP verification of basic parameters- eg, wind direction • Time series verification vs spatial scale, better stats for verification • International intercomparison projects on meteorological variables

  9. Projects to Move Forward • Projects not obvious • Next FDP combine nowcast and NWP WG working together

  10. Projects to Move Forward • Underutilization of satellite data and IPT partnering between satellite, radar, NWP community • GOES-R project with Ming Xue, Fuzhong Weng, Louis Grasso, Jason Otkin • GSD HRRR pre/near storm environment using high resolution hyperspectral soundings from LEO • WoF include satellite with cloud ensembles using radar DA • Build forward models now for imagers which have rapid updates of 5-15 min- radiances and products

  11. Projects to Move Forward • Integrated Product Teams • High Impact Weather Working Group to bridge communities • Nowcasting Testbed • Severe Storms, Hurricanes, Aviation (safety and efficiency/utilization) • Europe, Japan, Korea, Hong kong dense surface network

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