Recent Advances at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction

1. Recent Advances at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin” Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP MIC-HIC Workshop May 12, 2004

2. NCEP Organizational Status Status of Models Recent Advancements Future Plans for Community Models Status of Support for Special Projects IFPS DGEX HPC Products Winter Weather Experiment Overview

3. NCEP Organizational Status

4. Total FTE: 429* 131 Contractors/24 Visitors *As of 10/1/04 *54 FTE

5. NCEP’s Future is Built Upon: • Climate-Weather-Water-Land-Chemistry Linkages; for example • Seasonal Hurricane Outlooks & Extratropical Storm patterns • Meteorological-Hydrological forecasts • Ocean and atmosphere coupled forecasts • Atmosphere-Land Processes coupled forecasts • Relationship of solar activity on service provision and climate fluctuations • Ozone forecasts by combining air chemistry and operational models • “Seamless Suite” of products through a collaborative approach • Extension of predictability of Weather and Climate (from snowstorms to ENSO); Improve the forecasts of Extreme Events • Community Model Approach – Common Model Infrastructure • Addressing uncertainty in forecasts – Ensemble modeling NEW • Collaborative Forecasting • Unified Model Infrastructure applied from the “Sun to the Sea”

7. Status of Models

8. Computing Capability $20M/Year Investment Commissioned/Operational IBM Supercomputer in Gaithersburg, MD (June 6, 2003) • Receives Over 116 Million Global Observations Daily • Sustained Computational Speed: 450 Billion Calculations/Sec • Generates More Than 5.7 Million Model Fields Each Day • Global Models (Weather, Ocean, Climate) • Regional Models (Aviation, Severe Weather, Fire Weather) • Hazards Models (Hurricane, Volcanic Ash, Dispersion) • Upgraded 2.5x by October 1, 2004 • Backup for operational side: Fairmont, WV installation Fall’04

9. NCEP Operational Models Eta 12 km, 60 levels, 84 hrs at 0 , 6, 12 and 18Z Global Forecast System (GFS) T254 (~55 km) to 3.5 days (84 hrs), 64 levels T170 (~75 km) to 7.5 days (180 hrs), 42 levels T126 (~105 km) to 16 days (384 hrs), 28 levels 16 days (384 hrs)/4 times per day RUC 20 km, 50 levels 12 hrs at 0,3,6,9,12,15,18,21Z 3 hrs at 1,2,4,5,7,8,10,11,13,14, 16,17,19,20,22,23Z Climate T62 (~200 km), 28 levels, 7 months (20 members) Ensembles global 10 members at 00, 06,12,18Z T126 (~105 km) to 180 hrs, T62 (210 km) to 384 hrs 28 levels, 16 days (384 hrs) regional 10 members at 0 and 12Z 48 km, 45 levels, 63 hrs from 9 and 21Z Wave Model global - 1.25 x 1.0 deg lat/lon Alaskan Regional - .5 x .25 deg lat/lon Western North Atlantic - .25 x .25 deg lat/lon Eastern North Pacific - .25 x .25 deg lat/lon 1 level, 168 hrs/4 times per day North Atlantic Hurricane (seasonal) North Pacific Hurricane (seasonal) .25 x .25 deg lat/lon 1 level 78 hours/4 times per day GFDL Hurricane Model coupled ocean-atmosphere Two nests (0.5, 1/6 deg lat/lon) 42 levels 126 hrs at 00, 06, 12 and 18Z

10. High Resolution Applications • Six Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) High resolution Window nested runs (all 8 km except 10 km Alaska) - once per day to 48 hours • Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension (DGEX) • 12 km, 60 lvl (downscaled locally to 5km using SmartInit scripts) • CONUS at 06 and 18Z, AK at 00 and 12Z • 84-192 h, 6-h frequency

11. High Resolution Applications • Fire weather runs for IMET support – 8 km NMM runs in one of 26 areas of coverage, each about 900 km square up to 4/day; area selected by Boise National Interagency Fire Center -SPC • Dispersion model run on demand using 4 km NMM for Homeland Security

12. Fire Weather IMET Support 12 km Eta 8 km NMM 8 km NMM captures CA coastal winds Green – model winds Red – observed winds

13. Recent Advancements • General Performance • Hurricanes • Wave Watch III • QPF • Climate Model

15. TPC Atlantic 72 hr Track Forecast Errors

17. new model required WAVEWATCH III • New model design with emphasis on transparency, vectorization and parallelization (plug compatible, portable). • More general governing transport equation, allowing for later full coupling with ocean models. • All models use GFS and ice edge information from NCEP's operational ice analysis. A special GFDL driven version of the Western North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific wave model are run for hurricane wave prediction (72h forecast).

18. Isabel 18/9/2003, 12 UTC 12h forecast nowcast Intensity and location of forecast waves consistent and confirmed by altimeter and buoy observations. At 48h forecast lower wave heights due to earlier landfall. 24h forecast 48h forecast wave height 50+ ft (45+ ft)

19. Isabel at Field Research Facility Duck NC 9/18 14:00 EDT 9/29 14:00 EDT Maximum observed wave height at the end of the pier 26.6ft, which is roughly the maximum sustainable wave height for the local water depth. Wave height 2 miles offshore reported up to 49 ft. pictures from US Army Corps Of Engineers Field Research Facility webcam

20. Eta Model Performance Metric Ratio of Annual 48h Precipitation Threat Score to 24h Score in 1999

22. Recent Model Changes • Regional - Upgraded Eta Physics and Data Assimilation • Global - Improved Global Forecast System Surface Drag to Improve Synoptic Weather Forecasts • Ensembles – Increased Global Ensemble Forecast System runs from 2 to 4 per day (10 members each); Extended T126 (~105 km) Resolution from 84 to 180 Hours • Ensembles - Implemented Bias-Corrected QPF Ensemble Product to add skill to QPF guidance in the 3-5 day range. • Ocean - Implemented Assimilation of Wave Height Data into Global Wavewatch III Model; Extended runs to 180 hours from 168 • Satellite Data Assimilation - AIRS Assessment leads to Operational Use of AIRS Data by 1st Quarter FY05

23. Recent Advancements: Climate Model

24. Climate Model • Current operational climate model • 200 km, 28 levels, runs to 7 months each month • Linked to SSTs in Pacific basin only • Improved operational climate model • Fully coupled ocean-atmosphere system • NCEP operational Global Forecast System (GFS) atmospheric model • 200 km resolution, 64 levels, model top 0.2 mb • MOM3 ocean model (GFDL) • 100 km resolution, 40 levels, 30 km between 10 deg N and 10 deg S • Global; between 65 deg N and 75 deg S • Global Ocean Data Assimilation System (GODAS)

25. Coupled Model Simulation ENSO SST cycles Nino 3.4 SST Anomalies Simulated 2002-2040 (top) Observed 1965-2003 (bottom)

26. Coupled Model Simulation SST Interannual Variability Observed 28 Level Atm 64 Level Atm

27. Examples of ENSO events Simulated El Nino 2015-2016 Simulated La Nina 2017-18 Real El Nino 1982-1983 Real La Nina 1988-1989

28. Ensemble Mean CASST CMP14 Ensemble Mean – mean of 5 member ensemble CMP14 – operational dynamical forecast CASST – Constructed Analog SST (statistical forecast used by CPC) April IC

29. CASST Ensemble Mean Ensemble Mean – mean of 5 member ensemble CMP14 – operational dynamical forecast CASST – Constructed Analog SST (statistical forecast used by CPC) January IC CMP14

30. Recent CFS Runs April 1 run shows strong warming event as compared to Mar 21 run

31. Most Recent CFS Latest run shows a more moderate warming Latest CPC Forecast: ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue during the next three months. There is considerable uncertainty about what will happen after July 2004.

32. Future Plans for Community Models

33. Future Plans • WRF • Common model infrastructure for mesoscale (NCAR and NCEP Dynamic Core and Physics) • Sustained by AF, Navy, NCEP, NCAR • Testing underway of all combinations of 2dynamic cores and 2 physics packages at DoD Major Shared Resource Center (one month from each season) • First operational implementation at NCEP by Oct ’04, implementation at AF by Spring, ‘05 NMM NCAR/ MASS Navy COAMPS • ESMF • Global common model infrastructure • NCAR, GFDL, NASA/GSFC, MIT, NCEP • Basis for next generation global data assimilation and forecast system • Superstructure and infrastructure nearly complete

34. Near - Future Plans • Ensemble models • SREF (10 members twice/day, 48 km, 45 levels, 63 hrs) • Global (10 members 4/day; 105 km to 180 hrs, 210 km to 384 hrs; 28 levels) Dominant Precip Type 63 hour forecast Valid 12Z, December 5, 2002 GOAL: To create a North American Ensemble Forecast System with the Canadian Meteorological Centre

35. Support for Special Projects • IFPS • DGEX • HPC Products • Winter Weather Experiment

36. Downscaled GFS with Eta Extension (DGEX) • 12 km, 60 level (downscaled locally to 5km using SmartInit scripts) • CONUS at 06 and 18Z, AK at 00 and 12Z • 84-192 h, 6-h output frequency • New DGEX grids will be developed and added to production with content to be defined by the ISST. • SBN’s TG2 channel to carry DGEX data using GRIB2 • AWIPS OB3.2 will have GRIB2 decoding capability • Hawaii and Puerto Rico domains to be added

37. Expanded HPC Medium-Range Support • HPC is working to implement the NWS Corporate Board Decision • HPC forecasts at 390 MOS points are available in text format • Also available are HPC forecasts on a 5-km grid using information from ~6000 MOS points and PRISM to add detail to temperatures • Products available now on HPC ftp site: • max/min temperatures • 12-hour PoP • Estimated dates for additional fields • dewpoint - Jun 2004 • sky cover - Aug 2004 • wind direction & speed - Sep 2004 • Problematic fields: weather type, intensity, & character • WFOs can develop smart tools to incorporate local effects • WFOs modify HPC grids at their discretion • WFOs populate the NDFD HPC day 5 minimum temperature forecast valid May 4, 2004

38. Winter Weather Experiment 3 (2003-2004)Overview of Participants & Activities • Two WFO sectors • Intermountain (IM) - GREEN • Non IM - RED • Total of 77 WFOs • HPC produced WWE graphics • Available via HPC website • WFO-HPC Collaboration • Scheduled ~15-minute call twice daily • Also via 12 Planet

39. Winter Weather Experiment 3 (2003-2004)WFO feedback implications for next winter Streaming Video Test • HPC internal products for WFOs should include • Visualization of model preferences, trends, and winter-weather-related diagnostics NOT already available at WFOs • Accumulation graphics of S/IP & ZR like previous WWEs but in 24h increments out to 72h • Notification of product availability via 12 Planet • WFO-HPC collaboration should occur primarily in 12 Planet • WFOs prefer to collaborate initially WFO to WFO using HPC products as a reference • HPC-WFO calls should be reserved for when collaboration via 12 Planet is not efficient • Initiated by WFO • HPC testing 5-minute recorded “streaming” video map discussion for internal NWS use • HPC public product issuance deadlines should be changed • To allow more time to prepare internal NWS products and collaborate with WFOs A Proposed 4-panel Public Product

40. 1998

41. Summary • NCEP is positioned to deal with important strategic issues • Climate-weather-water linkage • Expand into “environmental” Air Quality prediction (with EPA) • Extend predictive capabilities through week 2 • Extend consistent predictive capabilities for extreme events out to Day 7 • Support WFOs/RFCs with an expanded array of gridded products

42. Summary (cont) • Based on Partnership with larger research community • Community model approach (global and regional) • Active participation in field programs • North American Monsoon Experiment • THORPEX • Test Beds: • USWRP/Joint Hurricane Test Bed (TPC) • Hazardous Weather Forecast Test Bed (SPC) • Aviation Test Bed (AWC) • Proposed USWRP/Hydrometeorological Test Bed (HPC) • Data Assimilation efforts through JCSDA (Appendix)

43. Appendix

45. N.H. 500 mb Height Anomaly Correlation for Forecasts Days 3 (blue), 5 (aqua), and 7 (red) Monthly Values and Annual Averages

46. S.H. 500 mb Height Anomaly Correlation for Forecasts Days 3 (blue), 5 (aqua), and 7 (red) Monthly Values and Annual Averages

47. Status of Distributed ModelsThe Workstation Eta • A means for providing real-time high-resolution numerical model data at the local level • Domain can be placed anywhere on the globe: size and resolution determined by user • Non-NWS use encouraged. About 140 international requests from countries such as China and Brazil (both with >5 users), Turkey and Thailand. • Over 155 domestic users: WFOs, researchers and students at U.S universities http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/wrkstn_eta/

48. Hindcast Skill Assessment • Methodology • 5-member ensemble over 22 years from 1981-2002 • January and April initial conditions • 9 month runs • Initial atmospheric states 0000 GMT 19, 20, 21, 22, and 23 for each month • Initial ocean states NCEP GODAS (Global Ocean Data Assimilation System) 0000 GMT 21st of each month • Forced by Reanalysis 2 parameters • Preliminary results • 10-15 member ensembles for full calibration runs (ongoing)

49. Hindcast Skill Assessment (cont) • Hindcast skill • Estimated after bias correction for each year • Uses model climatology based on the other years • Anomaly correlation skill score for Nino 3.4 region SST prediction • Skill maps for • Global SST • U.S. temperature • U.S. precipitation • Comparisons with • Operational dynamical forecast (CMP14) • Operational statistical forecast (NCEP CPC tools) • Constructed Analog SST (CASST)

50. JCSDA 2003 Daily Upper Air Observation Count 2002 Count (Millions)