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Time Counts…

Time Counts…. Delay in politics and everyday life…. reopening of Laurel Park Iraqi elections. Event history analysis. …a roadmap for applied users the use of EHA key decisions and how to make them interpretation. Why not OLS?. the positive nature of duration data

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Time Counts…

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  1. Time Counts…

  2. Delay in politics and everyday life… • reopening of Laurel Park • Iraqi elections

  3. Event history analysis... …a roadmap for applied users the use of EHA key decisions and how to make them interpretation

  4. Why not OLS? • the positive nature of duration data • censoring—Daschle v. McCain • time-varying covariates—Daschle as party leader

  5. The basics of EHA • the hazard rate—the rate at which units fail by t given that the unit had survived until t • absolutely continuous v. discrete treatments • given that Daschle has been in the Senate for 18 years, what are the chances he’ll be defeated in 2004?

  6. Parametric v. non-parametric models • what is duration dependence? • the s-curve in state innovation • consider parametric models when:  theory for time dependency  substantive interest in time dependency

  7. Some popular parametric models • Weibull model—monotonic baseline hazard • non-monotonic models—log-logistic and log-normal • theory and data in choosing parametric models

  8. The Cox proportional hazards model • duration dependency is left unspecified • so what does this mean in practical terms?

  9. Cox Model Variable Est.(s.e.) Constant n.a. Adcomm -1.00(.25) Pages .0008(.004) Indep -.33(.29) p n.a. N 170 Log-likel. -696.72 Weibull Model Variable Est.(s.e.) Constant 5.89(.30) Adcomm .80(.25) Pages -.0007(.004) Indep .27(.30) p 1.23(.15) N 170 Log-likel. -227.90 Time and rulemaking

  10. Topics for another day… • interpreting for substantive meaning • models for discrete duration data • time-varying covariates • repeated events—multiple and competing • models for unobserved heterogeneity • …just scratching the surface

  11. If you want more…  Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier and Bradford S. Jones, Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists Mario A. Cleves, William W. Gould, and Roberto G. Gutierrez, An Introduction to Survival Analysis Using Stata

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