Space Weather and its Impact on Critical Infrastructure

1. Space Weather and its Impact on Critical Infrastructure REVIEW DRAFT 01/23/14 WCM Presentation

2. Overview • Introduction • Solar Cycle • Space Weather types and impacts • Solar Flares (R Scale) • Radiation Storms (S Scale) • Geomagnetic Storms (G Scale) • Customer Base Breakdown • Alert and Warning Procedures • SWPC Products

3. The Solar Cycle Solar Maximum Approximate Size of Earth Solar Minimum 2009/04/30

4. The Solar Cycle THE EVOLVING LANDSCAPE OF CATASTROPHIC MANAGEMENT

5. Large geomagnetic storms can occur with smaller cycles • The largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred • during smaller than average cycles (no causality implied) 1859 Storm 1921 Storm 5

6. Where Does Space Weather Come From? But the sun is a violent place. This gives us the 11-year solar cycle. To our eyes, our sun appears calm and peaceful. Its magnetic poles flip every 11 years. North becomes South and South becomes North. Images courtesy of NASA

7. Where Does Space Weather Come From? Magnetic loops poke through the visible surface of the sun. We see these regions as dark spots or “sunspots.” The Sun rotates at faster at the equator than at the poles; this causes magnetic field lines to twist and evolve. This creates regions of lower temperature. Images courtesy of NASA

8. Where Does Space Weather Come From? The energy, particles, and plasma create the three types of space weather that we care about. When a magnetic loop snaps, it creates a solar flare, releasing vast amounts of energy, solar particles, and solar plasma. Images courtesy of NASA

9. What is Space Weather? Space weather refers to the variable conditions on the Sun and in the space environment that can influence the performance and reliability of space and ground­-based technological systems, as well as endanger life or health. Ionosphere Electromagnetic Radiation (Solar Flares) Energetic Charged Particles (Solar Radiation Storms) Magnetic Field/Magnetized Plasma (Geomagnetic Storms) Magnetosphere

10. Space Weather Affects Critical Infrastructure Image credit NASA

11. NOAA Space Weather Scales Radiation Storms Geomagnetic Storms Radio Blackouts

12. Customer Base Breakdown • Space Weather user groups continue to change and new uses emerge…. • Power Generation and Transmission • GPS/GNSS • Commercial Aviation • Commercial Space/Manned Space Flight • Satellite-based Communication • Emerging Technologies and Applications…

13. As technology progresses, the overall vulnerability to space weather is increasing… The need for better products, services, and prediction is on the rise.

14. NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Boulder, Colorado Space Weather Products and Services • Watches; The conditions are favorable for occurrence • Warnings; disturbances that are imminent, expected in the near future with high probability • Alerts; observed conditions meeting or exceeding thresholds www.spaceweather.gov

15. Solar Flare Radio Blackouts (R- Scale) • Summary: • No advance warning • Effects last for 10’s of minutes to several hours • First indication significant S and G scale activity may be possible

16. Solar Flare Radio Blackouts (R- Scale) • Impacts: • High Frequency (HF) Radio Communication Outages • GPS Position errors • Aviation • False targets on Air Traffic Control Radars (Noise) • Communication outages (must use Sat-Comm) • GPS guided landings etc. not reliable due to position errors • Satellite Navigation errors

17. Solar Radiation Storms (S- Scale) • Summary: • Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scale • Elevated levels can persist for several days

18. Solar Radiation Storms (S- Scale) • Impacts: • HF Radio Communication Outages - polar regions • Aviation • HF Comm is only source on polar route, causing airlines to re-route to lower latitudes (cost more fuel and time – flight delays) • Possible radiation hazard for frequent flyers & aircrew

19. Solar Radiation Storms (S- Scale) • Impacts (continued): • Satellite Operations • Satellites may be rendered useless • Memory impacts • Noise in image data • Loss of orientation • Satellite Loss of life • Manned Space Flight • Radiation hazard for Astronauts • Delays operations • Halts Exra-Vehicular Activities (EVAs)

20. Geomagnetic Storms (G- Scale) • Summary: • Watches possible on the hours to days time scale • Advance notice possible given coronal mass ejection (CME) transit times from Sun to Earth (CMEs being the main driver of significant storms) • Warnings possible on the minutes to hours time scale • Based on measurements observed on our “buoy” satellite (ACE) one million miles from Earth which gives forecasters their first look at the true structure and strength of the storm

21. Geomagnetic Storms (G- Scale) • Impacts: • Power grids • CME impacts Earth’s magnetic field, generates electric fields on Earth • Can cause voltage control problems • System collapse and blackouts • Transformer damage • Can induce currents in oil and gas pipelines as well • Driver of aurora; severe to extreme storms may cause aurora to be visible over most of the lower 48 US states

22. Geomagnetic Storms (G- Scale) • Impacts (continued): • Satellite Operations • Orientation errors • Navigation errors • Tracking issues • Surface charging • Uplink/downlink errors • HF radio propagation sporadic